PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

solarz

Brigadier
众人皆醉我独醒?

Maybe you are the one who is delusional? Many people on this forum lives outside of China and experienced first hand the ineffectiveness of other governments. All governments and all forms of governances have faults, but the Chinese government is one of the best ones on the planet. Go live in a Western country for awhile. Western governments hardly do anything useful nowadays.

Yup, that's a common issue with people who only looks at China's problems. They fail to understand (or deliberately ignore) that other countries in the world also have the same problems and do not handle them half as well as China.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
"The US removed nukes from Taiwan after signing a piece of paper with China, they never turn back on their words and thus would never do it again"
"The US is scared of becoming a pariah state, so it doesn't militarily intervene on the world stage"

Who is naive and historically illiterate?

You haven't followed the recent shift in US strategies, which accept China can and will take Taiwan militarily. US already openly called for strategies to make things as difficult for China as possible. The scenario I've suggested using tactical nukes is in line with current US thinking.

If "the countries in the region" don't see US as the aggressor after Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, etc,. What makes you so sure they will see the US as the aggressor if they deploy tactical nukes in Taiwan? East Asia is full of US puppets, SEA too. Besides US already has nukes deployed in Guam, more nukes in Taiwan doesn't really change the security for SEA countries.

Nukes in Taiwan, under US or Taiwan control is absolutely a possible contingency. Why do people think the US will just wait and let China reunite without paying a price. The US has a history of military escalation by placing nukes in short distance of its rivals, I don't see why they wouldn't try again with China. US deploying nukes in Taiwan doesn't mean the nukes must be used against China, but it significantly changes the reunification scenario.

For starters, it immediately puts pressure on China, at a time when China isn't optimized to intervene militarily yet. If the US deployed tactical nukes in Taiwan today do you think China would militarily intervene ASAP? I have my doubts, the earliest is after the 20th national congress. Can China still move at its own timeline and stand the domestic political pressure for a few years?

Second, it limits the possible options China has to reunify, making a dialogue-based reunification almost impossible, it's not like the US doesn't have a history of sabotaging peace talks and provoking armed conflicts (Ukraine vs Russia).

Third, it is in the US benefit to escalate China's reunification to the nuclear level, this is because this is one of the few areas where the US still has an advantage over China. Rising the stakes over a regional or global nuclear conflict can deter or delay China's military operation to reunite Taiwan.

I don't see why many in this thread are dismissive about the possible scenario of US deploying tactical nukes to Taiwan. Isn't the whole point of this thread to discuss PLA strategies regarding Taiwan? I don't see why this must be limited to conventional weapons.
Like I replied already several times, the only thing that comes out of that is an effective instant US war declaration, the PLA will intercept the nukes. To deliver the systems there, you need to do it by sea or by air, the routes are watched by China and they will obviously not allow a nuclear armed invasion on their territory.

It is absolutely not in US interest to escalate into nuclear level. For once, if thermonuclear war breaks out, the total destruction of America will destroy the interest of all oligarchs, the only ones that will be potentially pleased are the most batshit insane nazi-posadists who think they can rebuild some perfect America from the ashes. As much as genuinely evil and corrupt ppl have wormed their way into the leadership, I'd wager that not even 1% of America thinks like that, and the ones who do are edgy manchilds.

And let's say if US doesn't declare war and just turns back like the USSR did in the Cuban missile crisis, then China (and others) gained the political capital to start being very tough against them. Which given the current state of their economy is not good.

What is even worse, the normalisation of non state actor nuclear proliferation will have potentially devastating consequences for America. There's a LOT more ppl in the world who would be ready to throw away their life to nuke the USA compared to nuking China... The first to recieve a secret nuclear package from China will probably be Iran, which is relatively civilized and peaceful and would only use it as a deterrent. But there's no guarantee some tactical nuke wouldn't find its way to some radical.
 

InfamousMeow

Junior Member
Registered Member
在台湾问题上中共是说一套做一套,说要实现社会主义制度,但却偏袒台湾商人和资本家。更可笑的是对台优惠政策的受益人可以在任何时候翻脸,以反共为借口来煽动反中情绪以掩盖自己在治理上的无能。难道我们从香港事件没有吸取任何教训吗?

What is with people and this reactionary belief that in a bilateral relationship, if one does not accomplish one's goal, then it's a fundamental failure of one side's policy? It takes two to tango.

Also, how do you propose "中共" to establish socialist system in Taiwan, or just the simple thing of benefiting only/mostly the working class without benefiting the capitalists in a capitalist society that is Taiwan? China didn't even manage to rapidly benefit its own working class (getting them out of poverty) without creating a sizable group of capitalists. Are you gonna say: "在发展问题上中共是说一套做一套,说要实现社会主义制度,但却偏袒国内商人和资本家。" It's a mean not an end.

The most important lesson from Hong Kong is not about class, but about control. If CPC does not have control, there is no way to effectively implement a policy that does their bidding, in this case, benefiting the working class. If CPC does not have control, there is not way to counter the demonization of CPC&mainland, no matter how ridiculous the demonization itself really is.

很显然这种态度对于真正地了解中国社会、政治及国情是适得其反的。
You don't "真正地了解中国社会、政治及国情" on the internet. Even for a country as politicized as the US, you don't try to learn about the real US on the internet. A significant portion of the forum's viewers are actually oversea Chinese/currently lives in China, they don't exactly need the proper "attitude" to properly learn about the real China. They live in the real China.

我发现这论坛的大多数人都亲共到失去理智的程度,把党当作什么无懈可击的yyds,根本不想接受暗示中共有任何问题的说法。
No, the majority of the forum-viewers here are not "pro-communist to the extent of losing rationality" and "treat the party like impeccable yyds (forever god)" and "refuse to accept the suggestion that CHICOM has any problem". Nice strawman there! It is just the simple fact of when people see bull-shit people call it out.

No organization/individual can be perfect, it is delusional for you to suggest that people here think CPC is impeccable. NO ONE IS STUPID. But when someone uses the voice of minority/rare occurences to represent the whole of China, it is only reasonable for people to call them out and push back against the claim. It is also reasonable for people to point out the hypocrisy when someone thinks of problems in China as problems unique to China, when most of the time, other well-accomplished countries are having the problems worse.
 

InfamousMeow

Junior Member
Registered Member
What is with people and this reactionary belief that in a bilateral relationship, if one does not accomplish one's goal, then it's a fundamental failure of one side's policy? It takes two to tango.

Also, how do you propose "中共" to establish socialist system in Taiwan, or just the simple thing of benefiting only/mostly the working class without benefiting the capitalists in a capitalist society that is Taiwan? China didn't even manage to rapidly benefit its own working class (getting them out of poverty) without creating a sizable group of capitalists. Are you gonna say: "在发展问题上中共是说一套做一套,说要实现社会主义制度,但却偏袒国内商人和资本家。" It's a mean not an end.

The most important lesson from Hong Kong is not about class, but about control. If CPC does not have control, there is no way to effectively implement a policy that does their bidding, in this case, benefiting the working class. If CPC does not have control, there is not way to counter the demonization of CPC&mainland, no matter how ridiculous the demonization itself really is.


You don't "真正地了解中国社会、政治及国情" on the internet. Even for a country as politicized as the US, you don't try to learn about the real US on the internet. A significant portion of the forum's viewers are actually oversea Chinese/currently lives in China, they don't exactly need the proper "attitude" to properly learn about the real China. They live in the real China.


No, the majority of the forum-viewers here are not "pro-communist to the extent of losing rationality" and "treat the party like impeccable yyds (forever god)" and "refuse to accept the suggestion that CHICOM has any problem". Nice strawman there! It is just the simple fact of when people see bull-shit people call it out.

No organization/individual can be perfect, it is delusional for you to suggest that people here think CPC is impeccable. NO ONE IS STUPID. But when someone uses the voice of minority/rare occurences to represent the whole of China, it is only reasonable for people to call them out and push back against the claim. It is also reasonable for people to point out the hypocrisy when someone thinks of problems in China as problems unique to China, when most of the time, other well-accomplished countries are having the problems worse.
Not reactionary. I just found out the translation of reactionary in Chinese is too tough for my liking, I just meant "favouring a return to the status quo ante".
 

5unrise

Junior Member
Registered Member
我发现这论坛的大多数人都亲共到失去理智的程度,把党当作什么无懈可击的yyds,根本不想接受暗示中共有任何问题的说法
I've been hearing terrible stories about how awful and evil the communist party is my entire life. So, yeah, I would say I have 'already heard the other side'
Their lack of credibility boils down essentially to this: motive. The vast majority of people telling me these stories are driven not by a desire to improve China, but by a desire to see China fail. Their opinions mean nothing to me
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Who is satisfied with the current political situation? Workers are unhappy for various reasons and the capitalists are unhappy due to the increasing restrictions and souring global mood. No side gains from the current policies from this awkward middle ground.
It looks like you're the one still on sour puss and is still hang up on the "sins" of the party. You have been barking on this issue quite persistently. So why not just outright say that this opinion isn't exactly from others but is coming from you personally.

You have this lala mentality that the party must excised itself out of existence in order for the follow through or be accepted by the rebels and the unrepentance i.e. Taiwanese and Hong Kongers. Losers don't dictate the rules of the game; the winner does. That winner is the people that overwhelmingly supports the party. Everything else can frankly choose to live or perish, the choice is there to take and be made.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yup, that's a common issue with people who only looks at China's problems. They fail to understand (or deliberately ignore) that other countries in the world also have the same problems and do not handle them half as well as China.
That's the problem with liberal ideologues they have this fantasy where they assume that if they or someone like them are in charge of the government all would be run according to their liberal fiction. Then reality hits and bites them hard which usually make them frustrated and turned into raging right wing conservatives.

What those folks need to do is live outside China and for @bluetree700 to live in India to see it with his own eyes and senses for him to come to his senses that what he's been preaching is utter nonsense.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Who is satisfied with the current political situation? Workers are unhappy for various reasons and the capitalists are unhappy due to the increasing restrictions and souring global mood. No side gains from the current policies from this awkward middle ground.
Perhaps you should cite an example country or countries where this idealized situation where none of the issues you raised exist. I'll await for your insightful reality based response.

Till then, perhaps you'd like some Reese's Pieces to commemorate your long service and steadfast dedication to your capitalist ideology.

 

yungho

Junior Member
Registered Member
It looks like you're the one still on sour puss and is still hang up on the "sins" of the party. You have been barking on this issue quite persistently. So why not just outright say that this opinion isn't exactly from others but is coming from you personally.

You have this lala mentality that the party must excised itself out of existence in order for the follow through or be accepted by the rebels and the unrepentance i.e. Taiwanese and Hong Kongers. Losers don't dictate the rules of the game; the winner does. That winner is the people that overwhelmingly supports the party. Everything else can frankly choose to live or perish, the choice is there to take and be made.
I mean yeh obviously.. it's my opinion. What has the communists done to convince HKers and Taiwanese reunification/handover is good for them? HK and Taiwan benefit economically either way and from a quality of life perspective it would go down - their internet would start getting censored too.

Now you might say oh just foreign propaganda poisoning their minds. Ok I don't disagree, does that mean they need to 'perish'?
Now you also might say.. oh they won't have a choice. Ok.. but does that justify the death and suffering of thousands of people?

If you believe they should punished or suffer because of 'unrepentance' all well and good. For me, a military reunification reflects a failure of Chinese policy.

Perhaps you should cite an example country or countries where this idealized situation where none of the issues you raised exist. I'll await for your insightful reality based response.

Till then, perhaps you'd like some Reese's Pieces to commemorate your long service and steadfast dedication to your capitalist ideology.

They have their own problems and I hope they figure it out. The only thing I'm concerned about is where China can continue to improve and be better than everyone else.
 
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