PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[Michaelsinodef]

我只是想说我非常赞同你的看法。我只不过是刚刚注册了账号，但粗略浏览了你的帖子和别人的回复之后，我发现这论坛的大多数人都亲共到失去理智的程度，把党当作什么无懈可击的yyds，根本不想接受暗示中共有任何问题的说法。很显然这种态度对于真正地了解中国社会、政治及国情是适得其反的。

你就真正的了解中国了？
在这里的很多人都知道中国还有很多地方需要发展和改善，呆久了，你也能看到很多关于这方面的争议比如网络管控方面或者媒体等等。

不过我们这里的人，除了中国，是能看一些中国外的国家的问题和本质。其中就能看到中国比国际上的很多国家在很多方面做得更好。

我觉得这是最关键的问题。中华人民共和国宪法的第一条就是：“中华人民共和国是工人阶级领导的、以工农联盟为基础的人民民主专政的社会主义国家”。在台湾问题上中共是说一套做一套，说要实现社会主义制度，但却偏袒台湾商人和资本家。更可笑的是对台优惠政策的受益人可以在任何时候翻脸，以反共为借口来煽动反中情绪以掩盖自己在治理上的无能。难道我们从香港事件没有吸取任何教训吗？

咋了，觉得一上来就能把台湾搞成一个社会主义国家？现在台湾还没搞到手呢。

Lastly, this is an english forum, so do refrain from writing in another language.

 

[zhangjim]

我只是想说我非常赞同你的看法。我只不过是刚刚注册了账号，但粗略浏览了你的帖子和别人的回复之后，我发现这论坛的大多数人都亲共到失去理智的程度，把党当作什么无懈可击的yyds，根本不想接受暗示中共有任何问题的说法。很显然这种态度对于真正地了解中国社会、政治及国情是适得其反的。

我觉得这是最关键的问题。中华人民共和国宪法的第一条就是：“中华人民共和国是工人阶级领导的、以工农联盟为基础的人民民主专政的社会主义国家”。在台湾问题上中共是说一套做一套，说要实现社会主义制度，但却偏袒台湾商人和资本家。更可笑的是对台优惠政策的受益人可以在任何时候翻脸，以反共为借口来煽动反中情绪以掩盖自己在治理上的无能。难道我们从香港事件没有吸取任何教训吗？

顺便问一下，可以推荐值得关注的关于军事、政治的中文论坛吗？

I do not recommend using too much Chinese in english forums.The management here is more strict, and it is not recommended to discuss too many topics unrelated to military affairs.

I was a little emotional the other day because of several major scandals that broke out continuously in my hometown of Henan.
I still adhere to my view that the United States is no longer the most important factor in the Taiwan issue, and what affects the reunification process is China's internal problems：They become more dependent on the use of profits to bribe others rather than the trust and support of the people.

The most annoying thing for Chinese people is "who did worse",it means that everyone has given up trying to be better.Therefore, it is meaningless to compare with foreign countries and China.There is a joke: foreign countries are always in dire straits in the "CCTV news".

In the news, the official propaganda of "peaceful reunification" disgusted the audience.Over the years of exchanges, the people of the mainland have identified the Taiwanese as a group of liars,these people who consider themselves members of the "free world" are looking at the people of mainland China with the attitude of a superior race.They have no psychological burden to accept the "tribute" from the mainland people.

As a delaying tactic, everything was successful.But the efforts for peaceful reunification have failed.
This erroneous preferential treatment policy continues,this kind of propaganda can not even convince its own people, but breeds a huge interest group.
Maybe this mistake will be corrected in the future, but it will inevitably pay a heavy price, just like using an administrative order to forcibly stop the education and training industry.

When discussing any strategy, we cannot avoid the most important question: are the leaders of China's military forces determined to defend territorial integrity? Are they playing match fixing?

 

[HumanHDMI]

In my opinion as long as the current trajectory is maintained nothing will happen, and a peaceful reunification is the most likely situation. As long china becomes more powerful relative to its surroundings the benefits available to taiwan will grow greater and greater. Imagine taiwan state owned oil being able to exploit energy resources within the 9 dash line, that could lower prices for taiwan consumers, reduce air pollution etc. Plus culture isn't constant, imagine the next major economic downturn in taiwan, China could have many options to influence perception.

The us will try to bait China into starting a conflict but they won't cross the red line. As long as the global economy reveloves around trade, the US isn't going to throw a wrench into their own system. Not to mention the majority of congress isn't anti china per say, but just really want to be able to use the excuse of potential war to serve their own political goals.

As long as China maintains the current path, it will be fine. The real goal isn't taiwan it's at least another 500% economic growth in the next 20 years. As long as that can happen everything else will follow. Everyone try to buy chinese products if you can

 

[Yommie]

In order for Taiwanese unification, they could attempt to assassinate the Taiwanese president or do a blockade with air and sea power.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

I don't want to derail the present line of discussion, so please do not feel obliged to respond unless there's disagreement. My question on the potential pathway forward between mainland China and Taiwan is irrelevant on a pragmatic basis. It was a hypothetical exercise, and it probably garnered more responses than it is worth. In hindsight, it was probably obvious that the Chinese people, at least given their current upbringing and education, will not accept an independent Taiwan under any conditions.
I will say though that I am interested in preventing war if at all possible, and perhaps that is what motivated me to 'think out side the box'. It bothers me that the prospect of a peaceful resolution is slipping lower and lower over the years. What the DPP is doing is dangerous for everybody involved, and I have no doubt that Tsai, Chen and Lee will be remembered as villains by future generations.

Yes

Props to your channel bud.

 

[FriedButter]

I don’t see the point of discussing a nuclear Taiwan when it just goes to 2 scenarios. China will be forced to militarily fight Taiwan regardless. This isn’t an if for China. It won’t return to the status quo even if Taiwan gives up the nukes because credibility and trust with the West will be completely shattered. China will be in an “all or nothing” move.

1) China invades Taiwan and Taiwan doesn’t uses nukes. (US joins or not = basically what we previously discussed.)

2) China invades Taiwan and Taiwan uses nukes against China which then will launch retaliatory strikes against the US.

Doesn’t matter if the US joins or does nothing because the moment a nuke is used on China or Taiwan then it will have already spiral out of control and go global. There is only 2 thing Taiwan can nuke. Heavily populated mainland city or themselves. Either cases means any liberal or moderate CCP are immediately ousted and fanatic nationalism with CCP hardliners take over the decision making table.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Did people forget that China recently did an anti-ballistic missile test.

US would need to transport QUITE the number of nuclear weapons, and if chinese spies/intelligence agencies couldn't detect missiles to launch nuke being transported China, then might as well fold over and kneel before the US.
Basically it hasn't and can't happen.

 

[coolgod]

Yeah, back when it was during the Chinese civil war before it was resolved with handing the Beijing government the official seat of China.

Are you historically illiterate?

China doesn't arm Anti-US non state actor because China is mostly a pacifist state. That doesn't mean China cannot do it on principle, but giving nukes would be nothing short of retarded, and it would rightfully make them into a pariah state.

End of discussion which is frankly off topic.

"The US removed nukes from Taiwan after signing a piece of paper with China, they never turn back on their words and thus would never do it again"
"The US is scared of becoming a pariah state, so it doesn't militarily intervene on the world stage"

Who is naive and historically illiterate?

So why do you think Americans will do something that will lead to the loss of Taiwan？The most important bargaining chip of the United States is its ambiguous attitude towards Taiwan，Americans are unwilling to promise that they will carry out military intervention, but at the same time they declare that they will "help" Taiwan.

The Americans cleverly used the Chinese government's mentality of trying to avoid military conflicts in exchange for economic benefits, but they should not make the Chinese feel that there is no possibility of compromise.

You haven't followed the recent shift in US strategies, which accept China can and will take Taiwan militarily. US already openly called for strategies to make things as difficult for China as possible. The scenario I've suggested using tactical nukes is in line with current US thinking.

What he said is true that the scenario is extremely unlikely but it does at least still need to be considered because the situation or dynamic may change which could make it look like a good action to take for the US. Currently there's a lot of risk and factors holding the US back from using this option, like @Biscuits mentioned where US would be seen as an aggressor in the region making them lose standing in the region, unintentionally starting a war which have huge political, economical and military uncertainties, and normalization of nuclear proliferation to countries and non-state actors.

If "the countries in the region" don't see US as the aggressor after Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, etc,. What makes you so sure they will see the US as the aggressor if they deploy tactical nukes in Taiwan? East Asia is full of US puppets, SEA too. Besides US already has nukes deployed in Guam, more nukes in Taiwan doesn't really change the security for SEA countries.

I don’t see the point of discussing a nuclear Taiwan when it just goes to 2 scenarios. China will be forced to militarily fight Taiwan regardless. This isn’t an if for China. It won’t return to the status quo even if Taiwan gives up the nukes because credibility and trust with the West will be completely shattered. China will be in an “all or nothing” move.

1) China invades Taiwan and Taiwan doesn’t uses nukes. (US joins or not = basically what we previously discussed.)

2) China invades Taiwan and Taiwan uses nukes against China which then will launch retaliatory strikes against the US.

Doesn’t matter if the US joins or does nothing because the moment a nuke is used on China or Taiwan then it will have already spiral out of control and go global. There is only 2 thing Taiwan can nuke. Heavily populated mainland city or themselves. Either cases means any liberal or moderate CCP are immediately ousted and fanatic nationalism with CCP hardliners take over the decision making table.

Nukes in Taiwan, under US or Taiwan control is absolutely a possible contingency. Why do people think the US will just wait and let China reunite without paying a price. The US has a history of military escalation by placing nukes in short distance of its rivals, I don't see why they wouldn't try again with China. US deploying nukes in Taiwan doesn't mean the nukes must be used against China, but it significantly changes the reunification scenario.

For starters, it immediately puts pressure on China, at a time when China isn't optimized to intervene militarily yet. If the US deployed tactical nukes in Taiwan today do you think China would militarily intervene ASAP? I have my doubts, the earliest is after the 20th national congress. Can China still move at its own timeline and stand the domestic political pressure for a few years?

Second, it limits the possible options China has to reunify, making a dialogue-based reunification almost impossible, it's not like the US doesn't have a history of sabotaging peace talks and provoking armed conflicts (Ukraine vs Russia).

Third, it is in the US benefit to escalate China's reunification to the nuclear level, this is because this is one of the few areas where the US still has an advantage over China. Rising the stakes over a regional or global nuclear conflict can deter or delay China's military operation to reunite Taiwan.

I don't see why many in this thread are dismissive about the possible scenario of US deploying tactical nukes to Taiwan. Isn't the whole point of this thread to discuss PLA strategies regarding Taiwan? I don't see why this must be limited to conventional weapons.

 

[vincent]

我只是想说我非常赞同你的看法。我只不过是刚刚注册了账号，但粗略浏览了你的帖子和别人的回复之后，我发现这论坛的大多数人都亲共到失去理智的程度，把党当作什么无懈可击的yyds，根本不想接受暗示中共有任何问题的说法。很显然这种态度对于真正地了解中国社会、政治及国情是适得其反的。

众人皆醉我独醒?

Maybe you are the one who is delusional? Many people on this forum lives outside of China and experienced first hand the ineffectiveness of other governments. All governments and all forms of governances have faults, but the Chinese government is one of the best ones on the planet. Go live in a Western country for awhile. Western governments hardly do anything useful nowadays.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

"The US removed nukes from Taiwan after signing a piece of paper with China, they never turn back on their words and thus would never do it again"
"The US is scared of becoming a pariah state, so it doesn't militarily intervene on the world stage"

Who is naive and historically illiterate?

You haven't followed the recent shift in US strategies, which accept China can and will take Taiwan militarily. US already openly called for strategies to make things as difficult for China as possible. The scenario I've suggested using tactical nukes is in line with current US thinking.

If "the countries in the region" don't see US as the aggressor after Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, etc,. What makes you so sure they will see the US as the aggressor if they deploy tactical nukes in Taiwan? East Asia is full of US puppets, SEA too. Besides US already has nukes deployed in Guam, more nukes in Taiwan doesn't really change the security for SEA countries.

Nukes in Taiwan, under US or Taiwan control is absolutely a possible contingency. Why do people think the US will just wait and let China reunite without paying a price. The US has a history of military escalation by placing nukes in short distance of its rivals, I don't see why they wouldn't try again with China. US deploying nukes in Taiwan doesn't mean the nukes must be used against China, but it significantly changes the reunification scenario.

For starters, it immediately puts pressure on China, at a time when China isn't optimized to intervene militarily yet. If the US deployed tactical nukes in Taiwan today do you think China would militarily intervene ASAP? I have my doubts, the earliest is after the 20th national congress. Can China still move at its own timeline and stand the domestic political pressure for a few years?

Second, it limits the possible options China has to reunify, making a dialogue-based reunification almost impossible, it's not like the US doesn't have a history of sabotaging peace talks and provoking armed conflicts (Ukraine vs Russia).

Third, it is in the US benefit to escalate China's reunification to the nuclear level, this is because this is one of the few areas where the US still has an advantage over China. Rising the stakes over a regional or global nuclear conflict can deter or delay China's military operation to reunite Taiwan.

I don't see why many in this thread are dismissive about the possible scenario of US deploying tactical nukes to Taiwan. Isn't the whole point of this thread to discuss PLA strategies regarding Taiwan? I don't see why this must be limited to conventional weapons.

No, it isn't in US interest to escalate this to the nuclear level because it isn't raw materials or tech holding Chinese nuclear deployment back, it is self restraint. Remove the cause for self restraint and then US has to consider its own continued existence as a state. It does not have the luxury of thinking about Taiwan.

As an example of how many ICBMs China can bring to bear, there's 20x per year orbital solid fueled rockets produced at a single facility in Wuhan.

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In addition, for liquid fuel missiles 30+ LM-2s are launched every year. LM-2 shares DF-5 first stage and similar second stage. With modern construction the UMDH and N2O4 fuel is storable in silos.

Each launch vehicle is an MIRVed delivery vehicle. This is just 1 facility. With Pu reprocessing restarted in 2015, that means 200 warheads per year minimum on 50 missiles from space launch reconverted facilities alone.

To keep the facilities active, they can also produce delivery vehicles for North Korea, a treaty ally.

In addition Taiwan is well within boost phase interception range but all Chinese missile launchers are far out of boost phase interception range for US and Taiwan. A few depressed trajectory SLBM or IRBM would wipe out the relevant military targets with no recourse.

China also recently tested a midcourse interceptor. This is the 3rd successful test in a row.

So in short, a large but not overwhelming disarming first strike would eliminate the threat quite easily, with plenty of strategic missiles held in reserve.