PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
5unrise said:
One question I have pondered for a long time is this, and it is entirely hypothetical. If the cold logic driving Beijing's need to take Taiwan is one of security and geography, would it be willing to settle for something akin to the relationship between Russia and Belarus? In fact, one can argue from a security perspective that this is preferrable to the current arrangement, because de facto control is surely more advantageous than de facto autonomy. Again, purely hypothetical, but I have never heard any sort of answer or contemplation of that pathway.
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"No two suns in a day" is the most important value of the Chinese people.
Retaining a regime with deep historical hatred is not a good choice for the CPC and the people of Chinese Mainland.

It is difficult for you to change the fact that the current Taiwan regime is heavily dependent on the United States,this is very dangerous in terms of strategic security.
If they can shake off the influence of the United States, there is no need for Taiwan's regime to exist.

plawolf said:
Declaring independence is only the most explicitly stated and non-negotiable red line where China would have no choice but to kick off full armed reunification if crossed. However, it would be perfectly legal for China to decide enough is enough without a formal Declaration of Independence. This is why all the salami slicing by the US and Taiwan is so stupid and dangerous. Essentially every time they do it they are playing Russian roulette, and as time passes and Chinese overall power grows, more and more live rounds are added to the gun, so if they continue like this, it is inevitable that it will lead to armed reunification on Beijing’s terms and timetable.
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Trump and Biden are "helping" Beijing make a decision.Some people believe that the reason for not setting a specific timetable is that the CPC is unwilling to make people realize that there is no willingness to take armed action at all.
CPC will not care about any questioning voice,but the Americans are deliberately worsening the situation,this in fact eliminates the space for CPC's concession:they can no longer prevaricate people with empty words.
As I said before, "the CPC‘s red line can be adjusted as needed" has been circulating on the Internet in China.They demanded to "cut off the fingers of these people" with the strongest means, so that the salami slicing tactic could not be implemented.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
5unrise said:
Looking around the world, we have many examples of pairs of nominally independent countries that basically act as a single entity when it comes to foreign policy positions, geopolitics and security issues. They are also so heavily integrated on an economic, linguistic, and cultural level so as to be virtually indistinguishable outside of small nuances. I am referring to the relationship between Belarus and Russia, and between Canada and the US to an extent.

Obviously, in the case of Taiwan, the current domestic political environment basically equates a pro-independence position with an anti-China position. Part of this pattern of preferences is internally consistent, because China is the insurmountable hurdle preventing independence. But for pretty much every pro-independence Taiwanese, there is always this intrinsic disdain for China's political system, and foreigner worship. But this does not have to be the case on a philosophical level - one can plausibly advocate independence but want to maintain a strong bond between the island and the mainland on every level.

One question I have pondered for a long time is this, and it is entirely hypothetical. If the cold logic driving Beijing's need to take Taiwan is one of security and geography, would it be willing to settle for something akin to the relationship between Russia and Belarus? In fact, one can argue from a security perspective that this is preferrable to the current arrangement, because de facto control is surely more advantageous than de facto autonomy. Again, purely hypothetical, but I have never heard any sort of answer or contemplation of that pathway.

Edit: I do NOT support independence, please don't attack :)
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Well, afaik, in the constitution there was never any law written that would allow administrative divisions of the People's Republic to leave.

So hypothetically, you need to first pass a constitutional law change and a bill that allows parts of the Republic to choose independence. That's probably the hardest part by far, because you need to sell the idea of why Taiwan (or insert province of choice) should become their own country.

Almost certainly the ROC party/KMT will be banned from having any major roles in the new state. But if you succesfully sold the idea to the public enough that the constitution change happens, then China could in theory become an Union state or United Republics type of nation.

I think many young Chinese don't have great opposition against the idea of an Union state itself, as long as the economy is booming and the state is doing enough to resist illegal foreign influence. In contrast, older and middle aged people would want to retain 1 Republic as envisioned by Mao, which is the more simple solution.

China is wary of the increased aggression shown by America and its client nations over the last decades. Therefore, one way or another, the militarization of Taiwan Island will happen soon. Whether through diplomacy allowing fortifications on the Taiwan coast, or through smashing down and putting the separatists on trial, China will eventually seek basing on Taiwan as a counterbalance to US military buildup and global assertiveness.
 
Z

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
I think many young Chinese don't have great opposition against the idea of an Union state itself, as long as the economy is booming and the state is doing enough to resist illegal foreign influence. In contrast, older and middle aged people would want to retain 1 Republic as envisioned by Mao, which is the more simple solution.
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Unfortunately, from the lesson of reality, economic ties are actually fragile.From the experience of Hong Kong, if the influence of the colonial era cannot be eliminated, there will inevitably be a tendency to collude with foreign countries.

That was many years ago, when the Mong Kok incident took place.I know a Hong Kong Independence element，I witnessed the process of this netizen becoming radical.
Even when I first met him, his idea made me very uncomfortable：He openly declared that Hong Kong people are an independent nation, using different writings and languages from the Chinese people.Therefore, the relationship between Hong Kong and the mainland of China is "federalism".

Such fundamental differences of opinion makes any persuasion and dialogue meaningless.
Soon after, he took part in the violence against the police.

He made no secret that "cooperation" with Americans was necessary for an independent vision.He claimed that he had been trained by the Americans and would not fear the authoritarian tools of the CPC.

We all know what happened a few years later,but I'm not contact with him anymore.

Any proposal for "federalism" is an excuse to create division,you can't expect a group of people trying to get rid of the "China" label to join the "China" group.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Colonel
Registered Member
5unrise said:
Looking around the world, we have many examples of pairs of nominally independent countries that basically act as a single entity when it comes to foreign policy positions, geopolitics and security issues. They are also so heavily integrated on an economic, linguistic, and cultural level so as to be virtually indistinguishable outside of small nuances. I am referring to the relationship between Belarus and Russia, and between Canada and the US to an extent.

Obviously, in the case of Taiwan, the current domestic political environment basically equates a pro-independence position with an anti-China position. Part of this pattern of preferences is internally consistent, because China is the insurmountable hurdle preventing independence. But for pretty much every pro-independence Taiwanese, there is always this intrinsic disdain for China's political system, and foreigner worship. But this does not have to be the case on a philosophical level - one can plausibly advocate independence but want to maintain a strong bond between the island and the mainland on every level.

One question I have pondered for a long time is this, and it is entirely hypothetical. If the cold logic driving Beijing's need to take Taiwan is one of security and geography, would it be willing to settle for something akin to the relationship between Russia and Belarus? In fact, one can argue from a security perspective that this is preferrable to the current arrangement, because de facto control is surely more advantageous than de facto autonomy. Again, purely hypothetical, but I have never heard any sort of answer or contemplation of that pathway.

Edit: I do NOT support independence, please don't attack :)
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I believe you are the Eurasian Naval Insight guy on Youtube, correct?

Either way, back to the point of this thread's discussion.

To be honest with you, Russia and Putin are actually very lucky today because:
1 - Russia and Belarus are close allies;
2 - Belarus is lead by Lukashenko ever since Belarus split from the USSR in 1991; and
3 - Russians and Belarussians are generally on friendly terms with each other.

If the opposite is true, Belarus would have become the 2nd Ukraine of today for Russia. Also, Moscow would be just within 400 kilometers away from NATO borders, instead of the present 500+ with the Baltic countries and (Ukraine if they managed to join NATO).

Furthermore, when Lukashenko is no longer the President of Belarus in the future, and if someone else with completely different ideas than Lukashenko on how to deal with Russia and the EU takes over the presidency of Belaurus - Is there any guarantee for Russia that Belarus would not become the 2nd Ukraine for Russia in the future?

I believe the answer is clear to everyone here.

In fact, if China and Taiwan wants to go the path of Russia and Belarus, that means similar implications and possibilities would also arise for China.

Would there be any guarantee for China that in the future:
1. Taiwan would never turn its back against China?
2. Taiwan would never host foreign swords directed up against China's very own throat?
3. Taiwan would never work against the security, soverignty and survival of China?

Actually, you can forget about those guarantees - Taiwan is already in the process of becoming the East Asia version of Ukraine for China, thanks to none other than the United States and the DPP.

Since Taiwan is already making itself into the East Asia version of Ukraine, then why should China even bother wasting her energy to form the East Asia version of Russia-Belarus status at all?

Therefore - NO, I don't see the analogy based on the current Russia-Belarus status can be anywhere close to becoming viable for the current China-Taiwan status.

Speaking of which - If anyone has visited China's version of Youtube, i.e. Bilibili, you would have noticed that there are often continuous flows of pop-up comments left by viewers on top of the video that is being played.

Here's one particular Bilibili video, which is a trailer for a mini movie made using DCS and Arma 3:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The mini-movie trailer is about the hypothetical war of reunification of Taiwan into China proper.

And if you notice the flow of pop-up comments at the beginning of the video, these three phrases appear the most frequent:
失踪人口回归
山河统一
祖国统一
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In English:
Return of the Lost Population
Unification of the Mountains and Rivers
Unification of the (Chinese) Homeland
Click to expand...

I know this is just a fan made-in-game mini-movie trailer about a hypothetical war scenario, but the message from those pop-up comments left by the viewers is very obvious.

Henceforth, you can be certain of one thing - China, Beijing and the Chinese people would never, ever agree to such kind of status being imposed on China-Taiwan.

China would rather go to war, against anyone, at any cost - In order to prevent Taiwan from permanenetly seperating from China (just like what the Minister of National Defense of China Wei Fenghe has declared in Shangri-La earlier this month).
 
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B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
Unfortunately, from the lesson of reality, economic ties are actually fragile.From the experience of Hong Kong, if the influence of the colonial era cannot be eliminated, there will inevitably be a tendency to collude with foreign countries.

That was many years ago, when the Mong Kok incident took place.I know a Hong Kong Independence element，I witnessed the process of this netizen becoming radical.
Even when I first met him, his idea made me very uncomfortable：He openly declared that Hong Kong people are an independent nation, using different writings and languages from the Chinese people.Therefore, the relationship between Hong Kong and the mainland of China is "federalism".

Such fundamental differences of opinion makes any persuasion and dialogue meaningless.
Soon after, he took part in the violence against the police.

He made no secret that "cooperation" with Americans was necessary for an independent vision.He claimed that he had been trained by the Americans and would not fear the authoritarian tools of the CPC.

We all know what happened a few years later,but I'm not contact with him anymore.

Any proposal for "federalism" is an excuse to create division,you can't expect a group of people trying to get rid of the "China" label to join the "China" group.
Click to expand...
Any talks about a federalized government wouldn't involve far right collaborators, the only thing China needs to do with them is deal with them the same way as the quislings and vlasovs of the world.

It's quite off topic and not a topic I'm too knowledgeable about, but there are advantages and disadvantages with different types of states. Yet, common sense says one shouldn't fix what isn't broken, and the current model with the central government works more than well for what the Chinese people are trying to achieve.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Captain
Registered Member
I did a search and couldn't find if this scenario has been brought up before. What if one day US reveals it has nukes stored on Taiwan which may or may not be under Taiwanese control? What is the best way for China to respond?
 
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