PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

If Taiwan armed itself with nukes, the whole region would support a North Korea style sanctions regime (which China also supports). China would blockade the island and there would be very little international support for Taiwan. International opinion is quite important because if China is seen to be the aggressor, there would be more economic sanctions and potentially involvement of western armies. But acquiring nukes is still seen as the ultimate taboo. China could announce sanctions and a blockade. Once independence forces attempt to break the blockade, there'll be a no fly zone and later an invasion.

Also, reeducating Taiwanese youths shouldn't be a problem. In the cultural revolution, 17 million youths were sent to the countryside. Anyone on Taiwan who wants to fight a guerrilla war should be sent to work on a farm somewhere in rural China for a couple of years.

Minm said:

If Taiwan armed itself with nukes, the whole region would support a North Korea style sanctions regime (which China also supports). China would blockade the island and there would be very little international support for Taiwan. International opinion is quite important because if China is seen to be the aggressor, there would be more economic sanctions and potentially involvement of western armies. But acquiring nukes is still seen as the ultimate taboo. China could announce sanctions and a blockade. Once independence forces attempt to break the blockade, there'll be a no fly zone and later an invasion.

Also, reeducating Taiwanese youths shouldn't be a problem. In the cultural revolution, 17 million youths were sent to the countryside. Anyone on Taiwan who wants to fight a guerrilla war should be sent to work on a farm somewhere in rural China for a couple of years.

Click to expand...

I don't see how you are so confident about sanctions and public opinion regarding nukes in Taiwan. The US has deployed nukes in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and many other places previously, I don't see sanctions on those countries.

What is this "the whole region" you speak of? There have been recent calls in South Korea and Japanese govt for the US to redeploy nuclear weapons in those two countries. I highly doubt those two countries would sanction Taiwan.

UNSC vote would be vetoed, as regards to a UN vote on sanctions on Taiwan/condemnation on US, it would pretty much be the same voting blocs as the vote on war in Ukraine. The usual suspects in the western aligned blocs voting against sanctions / condemnation, most countries would stay "neutral", and the "Group of Friends in Defense of the Charter of the United Nations" would vote for the motion.

How should China attempt to forcefully liberate a Taiwan that is armed with tactical nukes, this is the core question I've been getting at in the past few threads? Those nukes might not be able to strike mainland cities, but they can definitely contaminate Taiwanese cities.

coolgod said:

But what is the best way to reunify if nukes are already on Taiwan?

Click to expand...

Simply make a statement that any nukes launched from Taiwan or detonated on Taiwan would be treated as being a nuclear first strike by the US and see how quickly those nukes magic themselves off the island.

Coalescence said:

Even then Taiwan would need a good amount of nukes to survive the first strike and air defense to ensure MAD against China, and after their announcement of obtaining nukes they still need to battle with economic blockade and possibly sabotage or terrorism over the course of the years.

Click to expand...

Would China even engage in MAD doctrine with Taiwan, this means nuking your own territory. If China nukes Taiwan, it has already lost.

plawolf said:

Simply make a statement that any nukes launched from Taiwan or detonated on Taiwan would be treated as being a nuclear first strike by the US and see how quickly those nukes magic themselves off the island.

Click to expand...

Like ACuriousPLAFan said earlier, China is already at a disadvantage with regards to a nuclear exchange with US. Not just the asymmetry in range, numbers and rungs of escalation. But an additional fact to consider is that Taiwan is a territory claimed by PRC. The US would gladly trade a nuked Japan/Korea/Guam/overseas base for a nuked Taiwan.

coolgod said:

I don't see how you are so confident about sanctions and public opinion regarding nukes in Taiwan. The US has deployed nukes in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and many other places previously, I don't see sanctions on those countries.

What is this "the whole region" you speak of? There have been recent calls in South Korea and Japanese govt for the US to redeploy nuclear weapons in those two countries. I highly doubt those two countries would sanction Taiwan.

UNSC vote would be vetoed, as regards to a UN vote on sanctions on Taiwan/condemnation on US, it would pretty much be the same voting blocs as the vote on war in Ukraine. The usual suspects in the western aligned blocs voting against sanctions / condemnation, most countries would stay "neutral", and the "Group of Friends in Defense of the Charter of the United Nations" would vote for the motion.

How should China attempt to forcefully liberate a Taiwan that is armed with tactical nukes, this is the core question I've been getting at in the past few threads? Those nukes might not be able to strike mainland cities, but they can definitely contaminate Taiwanese cities.

Click to expand...

An American nuke in Taiwan is different from a Taiwanese nuke. If Taiwan built its own nukes, there would certainly be international condemnation. If it's an American nuke, it will take a very long process for the US to authorise the deployment.

With the region I mean south east Asian countries and India. Of course South Korea and Japan will be on the American side, but that would be the case anyway. If there was a UN vote to condemn the invasion, like the general assembly vote when Russia invaded Ukraine, most countries would vote against the aggressor. Acquiring a nuke or attempting to do so is an act of aggression.

coolgod said:

What if the US planted nuclear landmines in Taiwan as a scorched earth policy? These plans were implemented in Germany during the cold war.

Click to expand...

Wait what. so they'll threaten to nuke themselves if they get reunified? That's one hilarious way to lose the support of your entire voter base, but its possible if the DPP is actually suicidal.

coolgod said:

How should China attempt to forcefully liberate a Taiwan that is armed with tactical nukes, this is the core question I've been getting at in the past few threads? Those nukes might not be able to strike mainland cities, but they can definitely contaminate Taiwanese cities.

Click to expand...

Use intelligence assets and surveillance to figure out where the nukes are hiding and strike them all down, and station anti-air near on areas where they'll likely try using nukes on, they could take their time to figure it out while maintaining an economic/naval blockade. There's also the question of whether they'll have the guts to launch or obtain a nuke, because the economic and political backlash is going to be bad for their political party.

It might be harsh, but Taiwan doesn't need to be intact, just neutralized so that it won't be a threat to the mainland and turned into a military staging ground for China to breakthrough the first Island chain, nuclear contamination from their nuclear suicide can be cleared out and buildings can be rebuilt.

coolgod said:

Would China even engage in MAD doctrine with Taiwan, this means nuking your own territory.

Click to expand...

China wouldn't need to nuke Taiwan, they could conventionally bomb them until they are neutralized. But there's the issue of nuclear contamination from bombing Taiwan's nuclear stockpile.

coolgod said:

Like ACuriousPLAFan said earlier, China is already at a disadvantage with regard to a nuclear exchange with US. Not just the asymmetry in range, numbers and rungs of escalation. But an additional fact to consider is that Taiwan is a territory claimed by PRC. The US would gladly trade a nuked Japan/Korea/Guam/overseas base for a nuked Taiwan.

Click to expand...

A nuked Japan/Korea/Guam would be also good for China, because now US would have reduced power projection in South East Asia and take a hit in reputation for not protecting their allies. This would make countries think twice about letting other countries station their military assets on their territory.
Edit: nvm the last part, reading comprehension problem.

Minm said:

An American nuke in Taiwan is different from a Taiwanese nuke. If Taiwan built its own nukes, there would certainly be international condemnation. If it's an American nuke, it will take a very long process for the US to authorise the deployment.

Click to expand...

So is a "very long process in the US" the only thing protecting China from this awful scenario? Should China do what Putin did and immediately initiate a military operation the second China receives credible intel the US will deploy tactical nukes to Taiwan?

Coalescence said:

It might be harsh, but Taiwan doesn't need to be intact, just neutralized so that it won't be a threat to the mainland and turned into a military staging ground for China to breakthrough the first Island chain, nuclear contamination from their nuclear suicide can be cleared out and buildings can be rebuilt.

Click to expand...

These costs are very heavy, a better way to reunify is preferred.

Coalescence said:

A nuked Japan/Korea/Guam would be also good for China, because now US would have reduced power projection in South East Asia and take a hit in reputation for not protecting their allies. This would make countries think twice about letting other countries station their military assets on their territory.

Click to expand...

I'm envisioning here say US deploys nuclear warheads and tactical nukes. In the event of a military operation, even if the US nuclear missiles from TW get shot down by China, the US still have nuclear mines armed in Taiwan. If China doesn't directly nuke US mainland, then China would resort to nuking US bases in nearby regions back.

This nuclear exchange benefits no one, in this scenario a piece of Chinese territory (Taiwan) would be nuked by the US while US vessels and remote islands would be nuked back. China doesn't really win here, only if China can threaten and nuke US mainland will this strategy be worthwhile.

coolgod said:

These costs are very heavy, a better way to reunify is preferred.

Click to expand...

Agreed. Its better if its peaceful reunification, but unfortunately the DPP is in power and US would like to use Taiwan as a leverage for negotiations. Maybe start a "peaceful protest" to overthrow the current administration to install a "pro-democracy" government?

coolgod said:

A nuclear exchange benefits no one, in this scenario a piece of Chinese territory (Taiwan) would be nuked by the US while US vessels and remote islands would be nuked back. China doesn't really win here, only if China can threaten and nuke US mainland will this strategy be worthwhile.

Click to expand...

This is going to sound horrible, but if its only Taiwan that got nuked by the US and US vassals got nuked by China, I see that as a win for China, because that could be used as a political narrative to win the Taiwanese population on how US sacrificed them and a way to destroy US reputation in the region and their allies for not protecting them from China, it would also send message/lesson to the other nations on letting other countries station military assets on your territory. But if there was a total nuclear exchange and not a limited one like the scenario above, then definitely nobody would win.

coolgod said:

I don't see how you are so confident about sanctions and public opinion regarding nukes in Taiwan. The US has deployed nukes in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and many other places previously, I don't see sanctions on those countries.

What is this "the whole region" you speak of? There have been recent calls in South Korea and Japanese govt for the US to redeploy nuclear weapons in those two countries. I highly doubt those two countries would sanction Taiwan.

UNSC vote would be vetoed, as regards to a UN vote on sanctions on Taiwan/condemnation on US, it would pretty much be the same voting blocs as the vote on war in Ukraine. The usual suspects in the western aligned blocs voting against sanctions / condemnation, most countries would stay "neutral", and the "Group of Friends in Defense of the Charter of the United Nations" would vote for the motion.

How should China attempt to forcefully liberate a Taiwan that is armed with tactical nukes, this is the core question I've been getting at in the past few threads? Those nukes might not be able to strike mainland cities, but they can definitely contaminate Taiwanese cities.

Click to expand...

So, how should nuclear weapons be used? Bomber or missile?The probability that they will be destroyed immediately is very high.

The Taiwanese have no resources to restart their nuclear program. This means that Americans must openly garrison their troops.

This is bound to become a devastating crisis that cannot be ended. It is very dangerous to provide nuclear proliferation or nuclear umbrella in areas that are not recognized internationally. China can completely abandon the principle of nuclear non-proliferation because the United States has torn up the agreement.Israelis will be the losers in the new round of nuclear proliferation.

Just a little bit of agricultural sanctions put the DPP authorities in trouble. Americans are very stingy. They won't pay for 23million people.
You are right about one thing: as long as the United States intervenes, the United Nations is worthless.

coolgod said:

So is a "very long process in the US" the only thing protecting China from this awful scenario? Should China do what Putin did and immediately initiate a military operation the second China receives credible intel the US will deploy tactical nukes to Taiwan?

Click to expand...

This strategy cannot be implemented without any discussion（providing nuclear weapons to Taiwan).I don't believe the president can issue orders to deliver nuclear weapons to Taiwan alone.
Military action will be an inevitable consequence.
If there's any fool who doesn't do anything——gentlemen, we might as well just surrender to save some time.

Man, this thread is getting derailed. If my memory doesn't fail me we had a similar thread which was was closed because of too many nonsensical nuclear discussions