PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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tch1972

Junior Member
tphuang said:
Again, Singapore is dependent on USA for security, because it had too. So, it's military leadership is tight with US military. There is no way in a US/China conflict, Singapore will allow US to use any of its military installations. Remember, Singapore's biggest fear is that Han Chinese people losing its majority share of Singapore population. It has seen what happened in Malaysia when Han Chinese share of the population drops. It's entirely dependent on the supply of Chinese people from Malaysia and mainland.

When China has advanced weapons that it can sell to Singapore, we will see what happens.

Should China prioritize Indonesia and Malaysia over others in the region? Of course. They are much bigger fish and are not being offered stealth aircraft by anyone else. China can also offer to build up local EV and renewable industries for greater influence. With Australia looking to turn itself into regional superpower, Indonesia should feel very threatened. It is the biggest catch in the region. Again, China will have a lot of weapons it can offer to Indonesia by the end of this decade. As Indonesia grows, it should no longer have to bow down to Western countries due to military weakness.
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I think China shouldnt waste their time on Singapore. Forget that 75% of singaporean are ethnic Chinese. Most of them don't have any special feeling for China. China likewise shouldnt see them as Chinese but Singaporean.

Remember singapore was the last country in the region to established formal ties with china. It deliberate policies of waiting for Malaysia and Indonesia to do so before they follow.

Hence If china wants to bring bilateral relation to a new height with Singapore, they should just put singapore one side focus in Malaysia and Indonesia instead. That will put tremendous amount of pressure on Singapore gov to improve ties
 
T

tch1972

Junior Member
AndrewS said:
True.

But as LKY tells it, this was for China's own good. It was and is in China's interests to have good relations with Malaysia and Indonesia
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Isn't it on china's interests to have good relations with everyone?

Just that some things can't be forced due to geopolitics then.

Things are different now. While Singapore is using USA as a hedge against China, China likewise should also utilised Malaysia and Indonesia to counter Singapore-USA de facto alliance.

Singapore ultimately need to realise which country can put foods on the table.

This ex diplomat view is largely a reflection of what singapore govt thinks.
Notice he deliberately used the term 'Senkaku Island'

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Coalescence

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
tch1972 said:
Isn't it on china's interests to have good relations with everyone?

Just that some things can't be forced due to geopolitics then.

Things are different now. While Singapore is using USA as a hedge against China, China likewise should also utilised Malaysia and Indonesia to counter Singapore-USA de facto alliance.

Singapore ultimately need to realise which country can put foods on the table.

This ex diplomat view is largely a reflection of what singapore govt thinks.
Notice he deliberately used the term 'Senkaku Island'

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Click to expand...
This would really not bode well with Singapore's economic prospect in the future, they should have stayed neutral. There's been a trend of high-valued industries assessing whether to source parts or invest in countries based on geopolitical risk, which is going to make Singapore be unfavorable. But yeah, China should really look into building better relations with Malaysia and Indonesia.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
tch1972 said:
Isn't it on china's interests to have good relations with everyone?

Just that some things can't be forced due to geopolitics then.

Things are different now. While Singapore is using USA as a hedge against China, China likewise should also utilised Malaysia and Indonesia to counter Singapore-USA de facto alliance.

Singapore ultimately need to realise which country can put foods on the table.

This ex diplomat view is largely a reflection of what singapore govt thinks.
Notice he deliberately used the term 'Senkaku Island'

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Click to expand...

Back then, China was still suffering the blowback from supporting the overthrow of the existing governments in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Notice how the diplomat says nothing about Singapore going to war with China, echoing Singaporean neutrality. And he also sees Chinese inevitability in the future. He is also going to be visibly shocked when the next US election delivers Trump or a lookalike. Trump is not an aberration and arguably represents the views of the "average" person in the USA.

As a counterpoint, Mahbubani is also an ex diplomat, but is much more high profile and vocal about the need for the US to accommodate Chinese interests in the Western Pacific and indeed globally.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
tch1972 said:
Isn't it on china's interests to have good relations with everyone?

Just that some things can't be forced due to geopolitics then.

Things are different now. While Singapore is using USA as a hedge against China, China likewise should also utilised Malaysia and Indonesia to counter Singapore-USA de facto alliance.

Singapore ultimately need to realise which country can put foods on the table.

This ex diplomat view is largely a reflection of what singapore govt thinks.
Notice he deliberately used the term 'Senkaku Island'

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Click to expand...
That's that one retired Singaporean diplomat's opinion but there's also voices that still hold sway in Singapore like Kishore Mahbubani, George Yeo just to name a few.

Singapore is in shitty tight spot and has to straddle a difficult balancing act between it's largest economic trading partner that's China and it's security guarantor, the U.S.

Similar plays are being used on all the existing members of ASEAN and it's up to these countries leaders how to navigate this unenviable situation because no countries should serve 2 masters and expect to come out relatively unscathed.

In China's case, based upon it's recent history and public pronouncements from the time of Deng to Pres.Xi, it firmly opposes bloc politics that U.S. firmly espouses using the tried, tested, and trite Democracy, Human rights, and other useless feel good clap trap it's used from the preceding century with great success.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
That's that one retired Singaporean diplomat's opinion but there's also voices that still hold sway in Singapore like Kishore Mahbubani, George Yeo just to name a few.

Singapore is in shitty tight spot and has to straddle a difficult balancing act between it's largest economic trading partner that's China and it's security guarantor, the U.S.

Similar plays are being used on all the existing members of ASEAN and it's up to these countries leaders how to navigate this unenviable situation because no countries should serve 2 masters and expect to come out relatively unscathed.

In China's case, based upon it's recent history and public pronouncements from the time of Deng to Pres.Xi, it firmly opposes bloc politics that U.S. firmly espouses using the tried, tested, and trite Democracy, Human rights, and other useless feel good clap trap it's used from the preceding century with great success.
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My read is that the Singapore leadership intellectually understand that one day, it is highly likely that the US military in SE Asia will be displaced by the Chinese military.

That hedging will limit how far Singapore goes against China.

Anyway, back on topic.
 
T

tch1972

Junior Member
AndrewS said:
Back then, China was still suffering the blowback from supporting the overthrow of the existing governments in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Notice how the diplomat says nothing about Singapore going to war with China, echoing Singaporean neutrality. And he also sees Chinese inevitability in the future. He is also going to be visibly shocked when the next US election delivers Trump or a lookalike. Trump is not an aberration and arguably represents the views of the "average" person in the USA.

As a counterpoint, Mahbubani is also an ex diplomat, but is much more high profile and vocal about the need for the US to accommodate Chinese interests in the Western Pacific and indeed globally.
Click to expand...

Not going to war doesn't mean neutrality but singapore can certainly side with USA politically and diplomatically.

The chances of Singapore going to war with Malaysia is much higher than war with China.

I been through it. All the chatters in Singapore millitary talks about war with Malaysia and not china. No one is in the mood to get involve in a conflict that Singapore is not a part of. Of course the gov might see differently.

As for the ex diplomat, he was more recent than Kishore who is more academic and writer. Cant really take his words as personal since what he expressed were likely be based on his insider's knowledge of foreign ministry.
 
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