PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FriedButter · Jun 2, 2022

HumanHDMI said:
I highly doubt a taiwan scenario will ever happen. Why?

1. China still committed to peaceful reunification and its not like there is a deadline for it.

I wouldn’t bet your chips on that. Being committed does not mean they will and we don’t know if a deadline exists or not. There is no guarantees in a world where the current hegomony is waning fast.

2. A war would end taiwans place as an advanced economy. It's clear the Taiwanese authorities are aware of it too when one looks at their quadrenial 2021 defense review. Plus no way Taiwanese independence wins democratically ,why? Because it means the Taiwanese real estate market quickly goes to 0% and the CPC tries really hard to hammer that into the heads of the Taiwanese

Ultimately, the decision for Taiwan independence will be made from Washington. Not Taipei. If they have an opinion in the matter is another question.

HumanHDMI said:
3. US can't win much from a war. Best case they keep their hegemony. Why risk it

The US didn’t need to weaponize the dollar against Russia and yet they did. The ever growing China Hawks in the White House should not be downplayed and underestimated when the old boomer guard is soon to be retired. When the growing populist and woke warriors start taking over political and corporate positions. Don’t expect them to be rational against China.

solarz · Jun 2, 2022

FriedButter said:
I wouldn’t bet your chips on that. Being committed does not mean they will and we don’t know if a deadline exists or not. There is no guarantees in a world where the current hegomony is waning fast.

Ultimately, the decision for Taiwan independence will be made from Washington. Not Taipei. If they have an opinion in the matter is another question.

The US didn’t need to weaponize the dollar against Russia and yet they did. The ever growing China Hawks in the White House should not be downplayed and underestimated when the old boomer guard is soon to be retired. When the growing populist and woke warriors start taking over political and corporate positions. Don’t expect them to be rational against China.

While there's nothing certain in this world, I also believe the chance of a conflict over Taiwan remains low.

While Washington can try to goad Taiwan into stepping on China's red line, it is ultimately still going to be Taiwan's decision whether to do so.

In this conflict, perhaps more so than any other, the moral high ground will be of critical importance.

Yes, the US still holds the biggest stick, militarily and economically, but then so did King Zhou of Shang when King Wu of Zhou began his rebellion.

The current international order is essentially a feudalism. The US has already earned the enmity of many nations through its reckless actions over the last 20 years. Should it continue on this path, more and more countries will switch their allegiance, something we're already seeing today.

FriedButter · Jun 8, 2022

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PLA includes robots, drones in amphibious landing training for officer cadets

Unmanned equipment including aerial drones, unmanned reconnaissance vehicles, unmanned anti-tank vehicles, self-propelled weapon stations and robot dogs saw their large-scale deployment in the exercise, as a platoon dedicated to unmanned warfare guided the troops to rapidly engage in combat after gaining an advantage on the battlefield, realizing highly efficient coordinated attacks between troops and unmanned equipment, the report said.

Robot Dogs huh. An platoon dedicate to unmanned warfare is pretty interesting.

Anyone know what a “self-propelled weapon stations” mean?

I wonder if an explosive robot dog is feasible in the future. Add explosives and have the robot dog run into a fortified enemy position.

Volpler11 · Jun 8, 2022

FriedButter said:
Anyone know what a “self-propelled weapon stations” mean?

I think it refers to this:

by78 said:

ficker22 · Jun 8, 2022

FriedButter said:
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Robot Dogs huh. An platoon dedicate to unmanned warfare is pretty interesting.

Anyone know what a “self-propelled weapon stations” mean?

I wonder if an explosive robot dog is feasible in the future. Add explosives and have the robot dog run into a fortified enemy position.

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Kinda like this, minus the need for training and expending dogs.

drowingfish · Jun 9, 2022

FriedButter said:
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Robot Dogs huh. An platoon dedicate to unmanned warfare is pretty interesting.

Anyone know what a “self-propelled weapon stations” mean?

I wonder if an explosive robot dog is feasible in the future. Add explosives and have the robot dog run into a fortified enemy position.

how is that any better than a simple guided rocket

FriedButter · Jun 9, 2022

drowingfish said:
how is that any better than a simple guided rocket

Good luck turning your guided rocket 90 degrees over the corner in the streets or a hallway.

zhangjim · Jun 11, 2022

solarz said:
While there's nothing certain in this world, I also believe the chance of a conflict over Taiwan remains low.

While Washington can try to goad Taiwan into stepping on China's red line, it is ultimately still going to be Taiwan's decision whether to do so.

In this conflict, perhaps more so than any other, the moral high ground will be of critical importance.

Yes, the US still holds the biggest stick, militarily and economically, but then so did King Zhou of Shang when King Wu of Zhou began his rebellion.

The current international order is essentially a feudalism. The US has already earned the enmity of many nations through its reckless actions over the last 20 years. Should it continue on this path, more and more countries will switch their allegiance, something we're already seeing today.

My view is the exact opposite: the potential for conflict is growing.
On the diplomatic front, previous political commitments are failing.The Taiwan Strait issue seems to have become a topic in which any country can intervene.The Czechs and Lithuanians set an extremely bad precedent,U.S politicians are escalating the situation with great frequency,their foreign ministry has repeatedly revised the wording,as for the Japanese and Koreans, they have also shown a position of forceful interventiont.

Taiwan's independents have never had such a privileged environment as they do today.

In recent years, they have been the most active echoers of a series of U.S. accusations against China.Considering that Japanese show too much undeserved attachment to this former colony,the Japanese military intervention was completely predictable.
This would be a great encouragement to the pro-Japanese faction within Taiwan.

China's diplomatic costs will only increase further over time.
Worryingly, many people have begun to question whether the top brass has the determination to complete national reunification or not.
One of the most vicious claims is that the transfer of benefits to Taiwan has created an interest group that does not want to unify the nation, and that the top brass does not dare to confront the United States, and that all the seemingly tough actions are just a show to appease the people.
The most fanatical part of the population outright claimed that if unification by force could not be achieved, then Xi would be nothing more than a power-hungry tyrant!

Although it is not possible to publicize this in the media, these statements are still spread through various political metaphors,if the top leaders still care about their historical ratings, I think action is inevitable.

Michaelsinodef · Jun 11, 2022

zhangjim said:
My view is the exact opposite: the potential for conflict is growing.

In recent years, they have been the most active echoers of a series of U.S. accusations against China. Considering that Japanese show too much undeserved attachment to this former colony, the Japanese military intervention was completely predictable.
This would be a great encouragement to the pro-Japanese faction within Taiwan.

I wouldn't say japanese intervention would be a given, it's a % and it will vary due to many different factors such as the strength of the PLA and US willigness to actually fight the PLA.

zhangjim said:
China's diplomatic costs will only increase further over time.
Worryingly, many people have begun to question whether the top brass has the determination to complete national reunification or not.
One of the most vicious claims is that the transfer of benefits to Taiwan has created an interest group that does not want to unify the nation, and that the top brass does not dare to confront the United States, and that all the seemingly tough actions are just a show to appease the people.
The most fanatical part of the population outright claimed that if unification by force could not be achieved, then Xi would be nothing more than a power-hungry tyrant!

Although it is not possible to publicize this in the media, these statements are still spread through various political metaphors,if the top leaders still care about their historical ratings, I think action is inevitable.

For this, I personally don't think Xi and the leadership is that afraid of military actions, but the decision of taking military action against Taiwan is really complex and at the core it has become a China - US issue and confrontation.

What's more, they are still waiting/preparing stuff and improving the PLA (look into the reforms of the PLA and the various slogans/criticism there were of the PLA in the last decade). This is really something that takes time (improving the PLA).

FairAndUnbiased · Jun 11, 2022

zhangjim said:
My view is the exact opposite: the potential for conflict is growing.
On the diplomatic front, previous political commitments are failing.The Taiwan Strait issue seems to have become a topic in which any country can intervene.The Czechs and Lithuanians set an extremely bad precedent,U.S politicians are escalating the situation with great frequency,their foreign ministry has repeatedly revised the wording,as for the Japanese and Koreans, they have also shown a position of forceful interventiont.
View attachment 90536
Taiwan's independents have never had such a privileged environment as they do today.

In recent years, they have been the most active echoers of a series of U.S. accusations against China.Considering that Japanese show too much undeserved attachment to this former colony,the Japanese military intervention was completely predictable.
This would be a great encouragement to the pro-Japanese faction within Taiwan.

China's diplomatic costs will only increase further over time.
Worryingly, many people have begun to question whether the top brass has the determination to complete national reunification or not.
One of the most vicious claims is that the transfer of benefits to Taiwan has created an interest group that does not want to unify the nation, and that the top brass does not dare to confront the United States, and that all the seemingly tough actions are just a show to appease the people.
The most fanatical part of the population outright claimed that if unification by force could not be achieved, then Xi would be nothing more than a power-hungry tyrant!

Although it is not possible to publicize this in the media, these statements are still spread through various political metaphors,if the top leaders still care about their historical ratings, I think action is inevitable.

Punishment of Lithuania was well deserved. Total and secondary sanctions on them is correct. The same should have been done to Czech Republic.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FriedButter

Major

solarz

Brigadier

FriedButter

Major

Volpler11

Junior Member

ficker22

Senior Member

drowingfish

Junior Member

FriedButter

Major

zhangjim

Junior Member

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier