Peak Oil, Resource Depletion, deminishing EROEI and the long term implications for the continued development of China...

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Not going so strong considering the pending disasters relating to water, energy, material, food, pollution, waste, and the politics + warfare that are a consequence of these things.

Also not so strong considering the enormous and accelerating gap in access to those resources. In the modern day, this isn't entirely dominated by racism. That only distracts from the real issue. While europeans understandably want to keep the lever balanced in their favour and raise the issue of overpopulation more than any other group because of this reason, there is actually a point here.

The limit is hard to determine and obviously a function of consumption and waste rather than nominal population. There is also the delayed consequence effect. It may not become immediately apparent but that's what science is for right. It's almost undeniable that 8 billion cannot consume and pollute at the average Australian/American (highest per capita) rate. Even continuing like we are now, it's jogging towards doom and extinction whether natural or through warfare. But how can anyone deny another's rig

ht to pursue a similarly wealthy existence? That part would be racism or whatever discrimination fits. Simply said there is not enough resources and not enough ability to cope with the level of pollution and waste created by a similar approach to development and life for the developing world UNTIL technology evolves to a stage where it is possible to engineer away those problems.

I don't think you need to be as wasteful as the average American/Australian to live comfortably, or even a life of luxury.
Humans need a number of things to survive; food, water shelter. Then there are things which aren't as essential but still important; electricity, education, leisure and so on.

Just to look at food, compare the hectare yield for cereal crops between a country like New Zealand and the typical third world country. The inefficient farming is partly due to mismanagement by corrupt governments, but the developed world do play a role. Blocking technology transfer (I've witnessed this directly), protects western farmers and the agricultural sector. They'd rather sell grain to Africa then let Africans grow it more efficiently themselves. Got no money? No problem, let our companies extract some of your natural resources and we'll send it as aid. It's the modern version of the opium wars. That was my point about racism.

But even with the above dynamics there still is more than enough food available now compared to any time before. Throughout history there were many famines, in modern times it is very rare. You're more likely to see malnutrition than millions of people dying of hunger because of a bad harvest.

The same can be said about all the other human needs. Modern highrises mean millions of people can live in a city that could previously only house thousands.
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
You're saying that as if there weren't wars and natural disasters back when the human population was much lower.

In fact, contrary to what treehuggers believe, it's fair to say that, historically, the lower the global human population, the worse the living standards of individual human beings were.

There is zero scientific basis to claim that the Earth is overpopulated right now.

There are some pretty clear signs that things are going to the fan such as the per-capita access to water:
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Water extraction technology has not advanced significantly like energy or food production, basically the only new advent in the last 100 years is water desalination which is incredibly expensive.
 

solarz

Brigadier
I don't think you need to be as wasteful as the average American/Australian to live comfortably, or even a life of luxury.
Humans need a number of things to survive; food, water shelter. Then there are things which aren't as essential but still important; electricity, education, leisure and so on.

Just to look at food, compare the hectare yield for cereal crops between a country like New Zealand and the typical third world country. The inefficient farming is partly due to mismanagement by corrupt governments, but the developed world do play a role. Blocking technology transfer (I've witnessed this directly), protects western farmers and the agricultural sector. They'd rather sell grain to Africa then let Africans grow it more efficiently themselves. Got no money? No problem, let our companies extract some of your natural resources and we'll send it as aid. It's the modern version of the opium wars. That was my point about racism.

But even with the above dynamics there still is more than enough food available now compared to any time before. Throughout history there were many famines, in modern times it is very rare. You're more likely to see malnutrition than millions of people dying of hunger because of a bad harvest.

The same can be said about all the other human needs. Modern highrises mean millions of people can live in a city that could previously only house thousands.

Exactly. A community of 10,000 people living in Chinese apartments and walking to most of their amenities will generate far less pollution than 10,000 people living in a Western suburban sprawl and driving everywhere.
 

solarz

Brigadier
There are some pretty clear signs that things are going to the fan such as the per-capita access to water:
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Water extraction technology has not advanced significantly like energy or food production, basically the only new advent in the last 100 years is water desalination which is incredibly expensive.

Again, this is a false premise.

You cannot just quantify fresh water as if it was a giant tank and people use it up equally.

Some regions don't have enough water, other regions have too much. In fact, this is one of the biggest challenge China has faced since time immemorial.

Now look at how the Chinese tackle the problem: desert reclamation, water diversion, advancements in irrigation techniques, advancements in water treatment, etc.

The vast majority of areas in the world don't need desalination. They just need a run of the mill modern water treatment and distribution system.
 

solarz

Brigadier
But no matter how you look at it, overall the supply of water available is going down. Despite all the methods you've listed per capita water consumption has barely changed.
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You've got your answer right there.

From 2009 to 2019, China's per-capita water consumption barely changed. Yet from 2009 to 2019, China's per-capita gdp went from 3,800 USD in 2009 to more than 10,000 USD in 2019!

GDP and water consumption should be directly related, so the fact that China's water consumption barely changed in 10 years shows massive efficiency improvements!
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
But no matter how you look at it, overall the supply of water available is going down. Despite all the methods you've listed per capita water consumption has barely changed.
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it takes at least twice as much water to produce a plastic water bottle as the amount of water contained in the bottle. The water footprint of one pound of cotton is 1,320 gallons. That equals over 650 gallons of water for one new cotton t-shirt. Even refining gasoline takes water – approximately one to 2.5 gallons of water to refine one gallon of gasoline.

Once cheap oil is gone, we are all collectively screwed
 

solarz

Brigadier
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it takes at least twice as much water to produce a plastic water bottle as the amount of water contained in the bottle. The water footprint of one pound of cotton is 1,320 gallons. That equals over 650 gallons of water for one new cotton t-shirt. Even refining gasoline takes water – approximately one to 2.5 gallons of water to refine one gallon of gasoline.

Once cheap oil is gone, we are all collectively screwed

Instead of making these alarmist claims, how about you show us how, exactly, is "cheap oil" irreplaceable to modern well being?
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Instead of making these alarmist claims, how about you show us how, exactly, is "cheap oil" irreplaceable to modern well being?

He sort of did in the first two pages.

Money and money value of certain commodities simply haven't factored many things otherwise the cost of a smaller bottle of water should potentially be much higher than it currently is. Market value has an interesting delay in adjusting for actual supply and demand along with expected supply and demand. Maybe wallstreet just isn't effective enough at its job *sarcasm*.

Energy is remarkably cheap for how much it does. Its current value also doesn't quite reflect how scarce it is and how quickly it's depleting.

Energy and drinking water are truly undervalued in western economies today. Considering how worthless the dollar truly is, it's even more revealing. We still live in an age where people die from dysentery and diarrhea over a significant area of the planet's landmass. That's enough to show some lives are accordingly not worth the few dollars it takes to purchase clean drinking water in parts of the world.

Maybe this explains the western move towards controlling what freshwater it can and why China's long started making large scale changes within its own country.
 

solarz

Brigadier
He sort of did in the first two pages.

Money and money value of certain commodities simply haven't factored many things otherwise the cost of a smaller bottle of water should potentially be much higher than it currently is. Market value has an interesting delay in adjusting for actual supply and demand along with expected supply and demand. Maybe wallstreet just isn't effective enough at its job *sarcasm*.

Energy is remarkably cheap for how much it does. Its current value also doesn't quite reflect how scarce it is and how quickly it's depleting.

Energy and drinking water are truly undervalued in western economies today. Considering how worthless the dollar truly is, it's even more revealing. We still live in an age where people die from dysentery and diarrhea over a significant area of the planet's landmass. That's enough to show some lives are accordingly not worth the few dollars it takes to purchase clean drinking water in parts of the world.

Maybe this explains the western move towards controlling what freshwater it can and why China's long started making large scale changes within its own country.

Sorry but that doesn't answer my question.

How is "cheap oil" irreplaceable?

Note that there are two factors here: cheap, and oil.

Oil has been getting steadily more expensive for decades.

We have enough proven oil reserves to last another 50 years.

We are already transitioning into renewable energy.

So again, how is the lack of "cheap oil" going to make the world economy collapse?
 
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