News on China's scientific and technological development.

vincent

vincent

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tphuang said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976363581479477492

my entire thread is up now and this huge export control expansion in Rare Earth. The battery stuff is also really important but it's hard to beat the significance of China creating it's own De Minis Rule, FDP & BIS 50% rule
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Wrote this in the miscellaneous news thread:

The Chinese leadership has to assume the West has the capability to build up their rare earth supply chain (not saying it will), thus they know the rare earth card has a shelf life. Playing this card means Chinese leadership considers there is considerable risk of the West starting a war against China in the next few years and want to discourage that for as long as possible, while China build up her arsenal and be ready when the time comes.1.jpeg
 
tphuang

tphuang

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976317012843614566

稀土包含17种化学性质极为相似的金属元素，要将其高纯度分离，需要上百次萃取，洗涤和沉淀等化学步骤。中国经过数十年的技术攻关，已在萃取剂研发与工艺流程设计方面形成了全球领先优势。 目前，中国企业能够稳定实现6N（99.9999%）级高纯度提炼，而多数国家仍徘徊在2N~3N水平。此外，中国企业在伴生矿与低品位矿的综合利用上积累了丰富经验，通过优化工艺，实现了高效率与低成本并存。
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so this is the key to remember China has already achieved 6N in processing and refining for rare earth metals. Most countries are in 2N to 3N realm, so there is a big difference between the re magnet that China can produce vs others.

4，能源与经济壁垒：电力成本与产能规模的双重优势 稀土金属电解环节耗电量巨大。中国凭借低成本电力供应与高效输配电网络，在能耗环节拥有显著优势。 同时，已投产的万吨级装置构筑了强大的规模经济壁垒，使新进入者即便获得政策支持，也难以在成本或效率上与中国竞争。
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Another huge issue is just the resource required to actually develop a RE industry. It takes a lot of low cost power at a time when Western countries struggle with electricity generation just for AI.
 
A

AndrewS

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vincent said:
Wrote this in the miscellaneous news thread:

The Chinese leadership has to assume the West has the capability to build up their rare earth supply chain (not saying it will), thus they know the rare earth card has a shelf life. Playing this card means Chinese leadership considers there is considerable risk of the West starting a war against China in the next few years and want to discourage that for as long as possible, while China build up her arsenal and be ready when the time comes.
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Consider what China will look like in 5 years time.

1. China's modern military capability will roughly be double what it is today, given observed/probable production rates
2. By then, it should be pretty obvious that China can "rolfstomp" over the First Island China, irrespective of whatever the US can do
3. In semiconductors, DUV machines (economically optimal for 70% of demand) should be well into mass production, and EUV machines (the other 30%) should at least be in pilot production
4. In almost all other tech sectors, foreign imported components should have been replaced by domestic alternatives
5. China will be even more dominant in new sectors such as Solar, Wind, Batteries, electric vehicles, 6G telecoms, etc. We can expect China to have caught up to world-class in biotech and also in the areas of AI where it lags

If there is a time to play the rare-earths card, it is now.

---

But remember that the end goal is to avoid a war if possible.
 
tphuang

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please let's keep war talk away from this thread

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《物项公告》明确将包含中国原产稀土物项0.1%价值占比的外国制造产品，以及利用中国原产稀土相关技术的外国制造产品纳入管制物项范围，并拟于12月1日实施。

这一规则的出台与近年层出不穷的稀土出口管制规避案件紧密相关，是借鉴国际成熟实践经验的必然之举。针对包含管制物项的外国制造产品的范围制定明确的管控阈值标准，大多数仅因冶炼工艺问题导致不慎含有微量稀土成分的相关产品可以排除在管控范围之外，有利于降低相关企业合规管理成本，提高业务效率，但同时也意味着涉及相关物项制造的经营者需将中国出口管制合规管理纳入研发、采购、生产、销售的全流程。

此外，这一规则的出台，也是我国《两用物项出口管制条例》第49条的首次落地尝试，从侧面反映出我国当前对非国产产品进行管控的审慎态度，可以想见，在未来较长一段时间内，我国《两用物项出口管制条例》第49条的实施不太可能如美国《出口管理条例》（下称“EAR”）那样，直接全面适用于所有管制物项类别，而是基于特定类别的管制物项特点，因地制宜，有选择性地实施。
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this extra territorial ruling is quite incredible, especially with 0.1% value. That is quite the condition.

《物项公告》第一条是管制物项范围；二、三、四、五是许可审批政策，具体包括：

（1）针对涉及管制名单及关注名单内的进口商、最终用户的许可证申请，原则上不予许可；

（2）针对境外军事主体，以及军事、恐怖主义、大规模杀伤性武器等用途，原则上不予许可；

（3）针对境外“先进制程”逻辑（14nm以下）及存储芯片（256层以上）研发、制造，及相关生产、测试设备及材料，以及具有潜在军事用途的人工智能（有别于上述情形中的军事用途）等三种具体最终用途，许可申请的审批政策为逐案审批。

其中，《物项公告》第四条主要指两类情形：一是芯片相关用途，包括直接用于芯片，以及间接用于芯片；二是人工智能相关用途，与公告第三条相比，主要指有“潜在”军事用途的情形。

《物项公告》明确了三种情形的许可申请审批政策，这一细则明确了特定情形中中国执法机构对于稀土物项的许可证审批尺度，有利于企业事前开展项目可行性研判评估。

关于相应稀土物项的涉及半导体、AI领域许可证申请，《物项公告》强调将按照逐案审批政策进行审批，澄清了我国对相关产业的开放态度，即仅将其作为正常业务逐案审查评估，相较涉军等用途的许可证申请具有更高获批可能，而非将其政治化、武器化。
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the focus on AI and advanced semiconductor is quite obvious here. Again, I don't think they would've done the AI/semi stuff if they had not been attacked here in the first place.

military usage is a goner, that's not coming back.

除前述稀土物项管制措施的完善外，《技术公告》也基于《出口管制法》第12条对国家安全与利益等因素的考量，进一步对中国公民、法人和非法人组织参与境外稀土开采、冶炼分离、金属冶炼、磁材制造、稀土二次资源回收利用等活动（以下简称“稀土制造活动”）进行限制，将管控范围扩大至未列入管制清单的货物、技术或服务，同时明确把中国公民、法人、非法人组织对境外该等活动的实质性帮助和支持囊括在内。

本项规则的出台，与近年部分企业通过购买稀土产线，或通过收买中国相关企事业单位工程师赴境外交流、任职等，违规窃取我国稀土制造相关技术不无关联。实践中此类规则亦有实施先例，如欧盟、英国、日本、韩国等国家和地区，均针对特殊用途等场景拟定了涵盖清单外物项的“全面管控”要求，美国更是早在数十年前便将针对核、生、化、导等特殊用途的“美国人”限制进行明文规定。
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this part is about a full cutoff of knowledge sharing from Chinese industry people to rest of the world. Again, directly copied off America's rules. But the interesting part is that even though America instituted its version of this, it could not prevent Koreans and Taiwanese from working in China's semi industry.
 
C

CMP

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tphuang said:
please let's keep war talk away from this thread

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this extra territorial ruling is quite incredible, especially with 0.1% value. That is quite the condition.


the focus on AI and advanced semiconductor is quite obvious here. Again, I don't think they would've done the AI/semi stuff if they had not been attacked here in the first place.

military usage is a goner, that's not coming back.


this part is about a full cutoff of knowledge sharing from Chinese industry people to rest of the world. Again, directly copied off America's rules. But the interesting part is that even though America instituted its version of this, it could not prevent Koreans and Taiwanese from working in China's semi industry.
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I thought DPP made it illegal for Taiwanese to work in Chinese semiconductor industry?
 
R

RobertC

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Dean W. Ball on Twitter:

"2. My current assumption is that China is doing this to gain leverage over the US in advance of the President's upcoming meeting with Xi at APEC."

@tphuang on SDF:

"military usage is a goner, that's not coming back."

China has just deployed Global Pax Sinica.
 
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