New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

t2contra said:

Chinese EV brands have the first-mover advantage while the Japanese will still retain their long-established marque. What we will see is a reduced market share by the Japanese brands as EVs enlarge their share of the pie.

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This is true for the Chinese market, but unless Chinese OEMS focus on going international with their sales they'll just be a local player. This is where Toyota and such have the advantage as they have a large established sales and support network, something that the NIO's and Xpeng's lack and will take years for them to build it, if at all. So even if the Japanese EV's take a few more years to come out they will enter the market and be accepted much faster than these new Chinese EV brands.

The US legacy car industry is already dead.
Chrysler has been dead since being kicked around from Daimler to Fiat, now "Stellantis" which is basically an amalgam of all the least competitive European automakers + Chrysler (Peugeot! Citroen! Fiat! sounds like a winner!).
Old GM went bankrupt and Ford pared down it's operations a lot.
The car industry is basically saturated and actually shrinking in places like Europe and many big cities.
If you ask me, the Japanese brands are the most vulnerable to this reckoning more so than the American makes.
More and more brands, less and less market.
The Americans are already down to their most loyal customers a long time ago. If Japanese automakers do not have competitive EVs, then their lunch will be eaten by upstarts.
By now, GM is already in their 3rd gen of EV tech (even if their 2nd gen was a literal dumpster fire). If Toyota suffers such a disaster like the Bolt when up against 3rd or 4th gen competition, then it would be a huge set back. Honda is backpacking onto GM's 3rd gen tech at the moment.

PeoplesPoster said:

This is true for the Chinese market, but unless Chinese OEMS focus on going international with their sales they'll just be a local player. This is where Toyota and such have the advantage as they have a large established sales and support network, something that the NIO's and Xpeng's lack and will take years for them to build it, if at all. So even if the Japanese EV's take a few more years to come out they will enter the market and be accepted much faster than these new Chinese EV brands.

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You are right about this.
However, it is possible. It just takes a lot of money and desire. The most recent example being Kia which only entered North America in the 90's (Although they are backed by Hyundai).
In addition, EVs only worry about the urban market, so you can copy the Tesla strategy.
The upstarts like NIO and XPeng have an uphill climb in this regard, but don't forget BYD and Geely. BYD is building out a support infrastructure for their public transit business and Geely purchased Volvo and Proton. For Geely in particular, as they harmonize their product line between brands (including EVs), they will be able to support more models in these markets (North America, Europe, SEA).

Tam said:

EV revolution will see Japanese car brands disrupted just as the Japanese electronics industry got disrupted by the PC industry, which were dominated by Asian participants other than Intel and AMD. That might have a bigger impact on the Japanese economy than the total irrelevance of the Japanese electronics industry did.

We can also see the legacy US car industry finally vaporized in the long term, the final nail of a long decades decline since the Japanese car invasion, replaced instead by Tesla and other EV new brands.

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The Japanese brands have not totally abandoned the idea of EVs. Honda's Prologue will go sale in 2024, Toyota will have 15 EV models by 2025. Mitsubishi and Nissan have been selling their EVs in the West for some years already when Chinese brands had not put their toes in. Mazda still has its state of art ICE that will still command a loyal following of gas engine patrons for years to come.

So Japanese brands will not disappear as fast as their PC industry in which function figures more prominently than form. A Toyota or Benz branded EV will still be coveted. But the Japanese brands' market share will shrink more and more.

PeoplesPoster said:

This is true for the Chinese market, but unless Chinese OEMS focus on going international with their sales they'll just be a local player. This is where Toyota and such have the advantage as they have a large established sales and support network, something that the NIO's and Xpeng's lack and will take years for them to build it, if at all. So even if the Japanese EV's take a few more years to come out they will enter the market and be accepted much faster than these new Chinese EV brands.

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Chinese can focus on some international markets but certain markets will still be outside reach. Like the US, EU, UK, Australia and possibly Japan. Maybe even a few others. Those markets have already hiked up tariffs on Chinese cars. I don't see that policy reversing. Only getting more active. The better the foreign cars are, the more competitive they become, the bigger tariffs there will be. It's just the way the game is played.

It's not just cars. Here's an example of E-bikes.

Totoro said:

Chinese can focus on some international markets but certain markets will still be outside reach. Like the US, EU, UK, Australia and possibly Japan. Maybe even a few others. Those markets have already hiked up tariffs on Chinese cars. I don't see that policy reversing. Only getting more active. The better the foreign cars are, the more competitive they become, the bigger tariffs there will be. It's just the way the game is played.

It's not just cars. Here's an example of E-bikes.

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Australia's second best selling EV is the MG ZS. Yup, that's made in China.

Australia's top best selling EV is the Tesla Model 3---made in China.

t2contra said:

The Japanese brands have not totally abandoned the idea of EVs. Honda's Prologue will go sale in 2024, Toyota will have 15 EV models by 2025. Mitsubishi and Nissan have been selling their EVs in the West for some years already when Chinese brands had not put their toes in. Mazda still has its state of art ICE that will still command a loyal following of gas engine patrons for years to come.

So Japanese brands will not disappear as fast as their PC industry in which function figures more prominently than form. A Toyota or Benz branded EV will still be coveted. But the Japanese brands' market share will shrink more and more.

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Every year they drag, they fall further behind. You have to start now, because five years from now, you should be running full speed, not acting like you're just starting.

At this moment, Chinese automakers appear to have a clear and focused vision where they want to be in 2025, then 2030, whereas the Japanese automakers don't seem to be. The drag why the Japanese automakers are not as willing to commit, is because they would have to lay off so many workers because EVs are so much simpler to produce and use far less parts. Chinese automakers do not have this baggage. While China has an auto industry, its not like this industry accounts for vital segment of the employment and manufacturing as it does for Japan, Germany, the US and S. Korea.

We know how quickly established brands can fall --- GM's brands, Ford, Chrysler, Nokia, Blockbuster, Blackberry, Kodak, Xerox --- in the face of industrial disruption.

Tam said:

Every year they drag, they fall further behind. You have to start now, because five years from now, you should be running full speed, not acting like you're just starting.

At this moment, Chinese automakers appear to have a clear and focused vision where they want to be in 2025, then 2030, whereas the Japanese automakers don't seem to be. The drag why the Japanese automakers are not as willing to commit, is because they would have to lay off so many workers because EVs are so much simpler to produce and use far less parts. Chinese automakers do not have this baggage. While China has an auto industry, its not like this industry accounts for vital segment of the employment and manufacturing as it does for Japan, Germany, the US and S. Korea.

We know how quickly established brands can fall --- GM's brands, Ford, Chrysler, Nokia, Blockbuster, Blackberry, Kodak, Xerox --- in the face of industrial disruption.

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Nokia, Blackberry and Xerox faced new and different technology disruptors that made them obsolete. But Toyota, Honda et al are just being late in the game. They will still make and sell EVs. Their competition will be Chinese brands that are nearly as good in quality and reliability, but cheaper and probably have more features and good after-sales service.

supersnoop said:

You are right about this.
However, it is possible. It just takes a lot of money and desire. The most recent example being Kia which only entered North America in the 90's (Although they are backed by Hyundai).
In addition, EVs only worry about the urban market, so you can copy the Tesla strategy.
The upstarts like NIO and XPeng have an uphill climb in this regard, but don't forget BYD and Geely. BYD is building out a support infrastructure for their public transit business and Geely purchased Volvo and Proton. For Geely in particular, as they harmonize their product line between brands (including EVs), they will be able to support more models in these markets (North America, Europe, SEA).

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China should just ban toyota, the few of their leading brands, that would restrict their EV development. As long as Tesla and GM ev are allowed in China, they would not mind the Japanese getting shafted.