Miscellaneous News

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
American Republican's have given up attempting to be a legitimate party for ages now. Trump was just a symptom of the problem in which the party had begun to court increasingly fringe groups with totally self destructive policy platforms. The GOP has now reached a point in which it doesn't even bother to put out a party platform.
The current state of the Republican Party is the biggest sign of the US decline. In a normal country, such a party would fast be relegated to sub-10% vote brackets. It is more extremist and ridiculous than many fringe extreme right-wing parties in Europe.
 

Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
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U.S. Intel Helped India Rout China in 2022 Border Clash: Sources

A previously unreported act of intelligence-sharing prevented another deadly standoff in disputed Himalayan territory and rattled the Chinese government, sources say.
Plot Twist: The USA caused the incident.

Both China and India claimed the other started it. Indias claim sounds stupid, I naturally believe Chinas word that India started it.

BUT… what if the USA told India that China had incurred , prompting them to counter-incur?
 
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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Russian integration project is extremely, extremely long in the making.

Arguably even as far back as during Khrushchev's ascent, China earmarked the USSR as lacking revolutionary potential, as having reached a dead end. Why else did China work as allies of circumstance together with America? This was not done out of charity to the capitalist world.

USSR had become through many different factors, some unlucky and some structural, a sick plant, one cannot call a plant whose yield is Gorbachev anything but sick. China took the tough decision of razing it down, to make room for a healthier successor, because as long as USSR remained leader of the socialist world, the socialist world will not grow. China had to replace them, and to replace them, USSR must go.

Russia will now indeed be headed to a form of vassalage, but that is not necessarily negative for Russians. Growth, a more representative political scene, and a stronger international presence awaits them. China does it reforms with respects to the native population. It does not rule its bloc like a dictator but rather as first among equals.

However, the world will also put China under the greatest scrutiny, because the degree of success of its Russian dependency will decide how likely non aligned nations would be to adopt the same model. So China must work hard, bring about the same positive changes in Russia which catapulted China itself into the still rapidly growing largest economy in the world. If Russian reformism only gives a lackluster result, China will be back to square 1 with just a "multipolar" world, which to be granted, China can gradually work with as well.

Does Putin like this arrangement personally or was he dragged kicking and screaming into it? We'll probably not know the answer until many years later, if ever. But the result is the same.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
It is incredible how American Republicans literally made a mountain out of just 1000ish Chinese illegals and fused China and illegal immigration topics. Expect more anti-Asian hate crimes.


To be fair they are either criminals or hardcore Chinese libs if they choose to enter the U.S. by braving thugs and drug dealers through the Latin American land route. Without fluent English and/or useful skill sets their career choice will be very limited. Either restaurant slave labor dish washing in Chinese restaurants or collecting trash from rich neighborhoods and reselling them recycling.
 

solarz

Brigadier
This Xi-Putin meeting and it's results pretty much signals that Russia is to become a junior partner of China, China's Canada, and basically becoming (non-PR version) an economic colony.

Russia will become wealthy, now how that wealth will be distributed among its people, that's another matter. People might be tempted to say "Not China's problem!", but human psychology doesn't work like that. With this new arrangement, China should aim to encourage/push Russia towards a more equal distribution of wealth that what they have currently

No matter how many times you repeat that fantasy, it's not going to be true. Russia is single handedly holding back the NATO war machine right now, and that alone makes it a valuable security partner for China.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
This Xi-Putin meeting and it's results pretty much signals that Russia is to become a junior partner of China, China's Canada, and basically becoming (non-PR version) an economic colony.

Russia will become wealthy, now how that wealth will be distributed among its people, that's another matter. People might be tempted to say "Not China's problem!", but human psychology doesn't work like that. With this new arrangement, China should aim to encourage/push Russia towards a more equal distribution of wealth that what they have currently

That's underselling Russia.

Russia after all is taking on all of NATO.

Canada sent four tanks to the Ukraine, then another four tanks, then told China yesterday that China is on the wrong side of history.

Russia and Canada not comparable at all.

Besides, if we divide trade volumes as in per-capital basis, which is kind of irrelevant, but for a thought experiment, Russia-China trade is about 200 billion, whereas Canada-China trade is about 100-150 billion per year.

Since Russia-China trade is twice the amount of Canada-China trade, but the Russian population is 4x higher than the Canadian population, all that means is the average Canadian does twice much trade with China, than does the average Russian.

The cold war rhetoric is obsolete.

Russia taking on all of NATO, while China will support Russia, and support West Asia peace initiatives, and work towards a prosperous RECP ... what cold war?

:D
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Of course I might be wrong about these predictions...

These predictions of yours lean more towards conspiracies.

China does not need vassals, nor does it wish to have vassals. China's vision of a new world order is not to copy the vicious and disgusting "hegemon-vassal" model of the US. China’s vision of a world order is one in which countries stand on their own and make their way in an international system as individuals and mutually beneficial cooperation. China believes that sovereignty should be the foundation of the new international system.
 
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Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
I did. But only in one scenario that I did not expect to happen so soon. That it happened so fast caught me by surprise.

Let me explain.

Forcing Russia to use RMB in foreign trade is one of the foundations of my personal theory that what caused the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and possibly also in 2014 was not so much US encroachment of Russia's traditional sphere of influence from the west as the threat of China doing the same from the east.

Russia for all its bellicose rhetoric has long acknowledged that as long as US is present on European continent it has no option but strategic defense. The combined potential of US and former Soviet sattelites was enough to cripple Russia in any armed conflict. Economically Russia had no way to contest US and EU influence with a GDP equal to that of Italy in 2013 - and significantly less after 2014. The western flank for Russia was lost, all it could hope for was holding the lines by force. East was also lost since that means China. However the southern flank meant a number of weaker states and economies which lay in Russia's sphere of influence. The problem with that was that as China expanded with its trade and infrastructural initiatives so did Chinese influence and - in time - hard power.

Russia made an all-in bet and decided to use Ukraine as a showcase forcing China to negotiation about a more equitable settlement for sharing of influence in Asia.

And it failed spectacularly. The visit from Xi is really a resolution to that bet where he came and took all the money on the table, told Putin "GG" and suggested a different game next time so as not to overburden him when he's so heroically fighting against American hegemony.

Now why do I think that?

If Russia will use "mostly Yuan" in foreign trade then it means two things:

First of all all Russia-China trade will be in Yuan. This means that Russia will sell energy and other resources to China at current discount prices (or lower) and in turn China will pay in Yuan which Russia will then use to facilitate trade with its foreign partners as well as purchase goods from China. It completely eliminates all chances that Kremlin had for propping up the Ruble through foreign trade. Possibly "mostly Yuan" means that trade with India will be allowed to be priced in Ruble but probably not for long.

Secondly all other foreign trade will be facilitated in RMB which will solve part of the issue of legitimizing RMB as viable currency, especially for any country that falls under threat of western sanction. That means that these sanctions will follow to some extent which will create a positive feedback loop reinforcing the use of RMB for trade in countries that do negligible trade in USD or EUR. This is where the deal with Saudis and Iran comes into play because it means that with establishing of RMB-denominated energy markets the most crucial choke-point for de-dollarization is avoided. And because Russia is hard-pressed for foreign trade in its current situation it will do the worst part of the job for China.

This is Xi taking Putin to the cleaners in strategic terms. Russia just lost its play at internationalization of Ruble which is a must for any world power. Ruble becomes an internal currency of Russia.

Currency is more important in global strategy than nuclear weapons because nuclear weapons are "will not use" factor. People who comment on nukes have no idea about actual nuclear use policy and that it is essentially inverse of conventional policy which is "will use". Nuclear weapons are boundary parameter. They can't be used without redefining the current boundaries accepted by all nuclear powers. Currency is what facilitates all power projection - soft and hard, overt and covert and conventional and nuclear.

Without it's own currency on world markets Russia becomes the world largest and northernmost North Korea.



Russia is not a "junior partner". You have to understand the language of politics to properly interpret the events of today.

Xi stating to Putin that Russian people will elected him in 2024 was him saying that China will not overthrow him and he has Beijing's blessing to introduce whatever measures he considers necessary to stay in power. Why would he say something like that? There's only one explanation that has historical precedent.

We just witnessed a de facto act of homage of Putin's Russia to China. It was done with all necessary pretense and courtesy for practical reasons but that's what it was.

As of today Russia is a vassal state of China.

Put it in your diaries. It's a historical date.

21st of March 2022 Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin who styled himself the heir of Peter the Great who was the founder of Russian Empire gave homage as a vassal of a foreign power.

View attachment 109570

For those who choose to reject reality - can you tell me at which moment the UK became a vassal to the US? Because if you can't then don't dispute what I just told you. It happened. Deal with it. I'm dealing with my head still spinning. But I don't question historical precedent.



Last summer he already told Russia that Ukraine is Putin's problem during the CSTO summit and there is no reason for him to change this stance now that Russia showed even more weakness.

My guess would be that Xi promised Putin that Russia in its current form will survive if he loses in Ukraine.The deal is that if Putin can't handle Ukraine then it's his problem and he has to take the loss but China will back all measures necessary for regime stability in Russia and will provide economic help if necessary. Military aid for the operations in Ukraine would hamper China and Russia is not in a position to demand that.

This deal is so bad for Russia as a sovereign world power that it can only mean that Russia is in a much worse condition and place than I expected it be. This was "take it or leave it, we will take what's ours anyway with your permission or over your dead body" kind of deal.

Putin now has to make his own calculations on whether it pays him to push even more aggressively in Ukraine and hope that economic turmoil will force US to accept freezing of conflict in current state or accept that he is very likely to lose the territory he gained in 2022 (not sure about DPR/LPR and Crimea) and will have to crack down on dissent domestically.

Considering that there was no additional mobilisation and that the creeping offensive has not yielded results it will depend on how successful the upcoming Ukrainian push will be.

At this point what happens in Ukraine is irrelevant because the war is effectively over. It was a contest to decide whether Russia is a world power and it was just settled.

By the way it also means that Xi is calling the shots in terms of the peace deal. He might have told Putin his demands that need to be met and left him to choose the time or he might have told him that he will lead the peace initiative.



China will definitely do that to some extent because it will create a more stable Russia which is in China's interest. The US will attempt to destabilize Russia and the best counter to that is economic stimulus and investment signalling future prospects and those can only be credible with China's involvement.

It will (or at least should) also facilitate the long-term de-nuclearization of Russia due to re-directed military budget. As soon as China has its own nuclear arsenal expanded sufficiently Russia's will be reduced to minimal deterrence of France or Britain. Nothing else is necessary.

Of course I might be wrong about these predictions but I'm just using historical precedent which is extremely consistent in what follows what. This is a game as old as human civilization itself.

There are some things that I agree, and some that i disagree with. I will say what I disagree about in a short way.




1. You said that Ukraine is Russia'a or Putin's problem only. However, it's maybe their problem, but is Xi’s golden opportunity to keep the West occupied while he prepares for Taiwan. West already churned through their millitary reserves. West's extremely limited millitary industry geared up toward production of mostly land-based millitary equipment, that won't be useful in the Taiwan scenario for years. Both of those points for years as I expect the Ukraine war to last for years. Third point I want to make is that as long as there is such a massive war, in the Europe, beside EU, those countries are in no shape to help the US against China for Taiwan, both from sociological and political but economic standpoint as well. That's why I said that it is in China's favor for the war in the Ukraine to hugely extend, at least until the possible, in my personal opinion, 2027 Taiwan AR. Hence, if Russia was to start losing in the Ukraine, not just a stalemate, but pure losing, I can say with 90% certainty that China would open up some millitary equipment for them.


2. You also understated Russia's importance to China in this moment when a conflict around Taiwan could start at any moment. US could launch a naval economic blockade against China at any moment. Then where would China buy and transport their food and natural resources from, energy, minerals, ores? Trade with the rest of the world? Well, mostly from Russia. That is the first point, and the second point is Russia's massive global nuclear capability. China could currently only destroy the US at best, however Russia cam destroy the whole world US + it's global allies. China needs such a nuclear deterrent now on its side.
 
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