Miscellaneous News

Xsizor said:

US doesn't have a policy that is slow. Wherever there is bipartisan support, policies and changes to them happen fast.

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No, there isn't. It's taken a whole 9 months for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill to get through. The Export Control Reform Act passed in 2018 and there still isn't the finalized list of foundational and emerging technologies. The USG moves slowly but surely and that's why a lot of the punititave actions on China haven't happened. It's because it's stuck with legal counsel and the damages are mitigated and because Biden is a dove. That assumption doesn't hold when the next GOP is president.

Xsizor said:

China Can. China finds the current systems good enough. US using SWIFT as a weapon will force China to adopt changes however harsh it may. And US will only lose later.

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The RMB will never be a reserve currency because china's capital acocunt is not open. Without USD access, China's economy will disappear

Xsizor said:

Its not a Win for US if Japan struggles. US can't replace and provide an alternative for Chinese market.

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China isn't a large source of US final demand. The US literally sabotaged Japan's economy, it is a win and the US will win again when it successfully throws China economy back into a great depression

Xsizor said:

30% Market share is still very impressive. Every single one of your cards never improve US standing and only gives China immunity in the future.

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30% market share isn't even half. Most of it is controlled by US slaves. LOLOLOL

SleepyStudent said:

The RMB will never be a reserve currency because china's capital acocunt is not open. Without USD access, China's economy will disappear

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This makes zero sense... why you think Trump signed EO to ban TikTok? Because dancing vids are threat to Nat Sec?
The real Nat Sec threat is petrodollar hegemony when TikTok integrates Chinese petroyuan digital e-blockchain based AI programmable monies.... Software defined Yuan... and since apps is all about the network social effects, TikTok is #1 app with highest install base, then overnight potentially China can destabilize the US dollar and rip and replace it with the new China Yuan....

Without USD access China's economy will disappear? Money facilities the real economy not the other way around... heck there is even barter if you wanna use your brain to think about it... You mean to say without having to pay rent to the weaponized dollar that China economy will skyrocket because no more paying taxes to Uncle sam!

SleepyStudent said:

SWIFT is a metaphor for USD payments/clearing since international trade is settled in dollars as well as that all banks have correspondent accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. All the US needs to do is to threaten any country's access to the United States Dollar and their central & commercial bank's access to the United States Dollar/Federal Reserve Bank of New York and then they shut up and comply with the United States, just like what Iraq did.

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Its not a metaphor but an acronym for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.

Xsizor said:

Its not a metaphor but an acronym for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.

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I know what SWIFT *is* but the only way the US kicks China out of SWIFT is if the US places broad SDN sanctions on China that would be secondary financial sanctions. SWIFT is a cooperative of member banks that would never voluntarily kick China out. Thus kicking China out of SWIFT is more a metaphor for kicking China out of global dollar fiannce

SleepyStudent said:

No, there isn't. It's taken a whole 9 months for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill to get through. The Export Control Reform Act passed in 2018 and there still isn't the finalized list of foundational and emerging technologies. The USG moves slowly but surely and that's why a lot of the punititave actions on China haven't happened. It's because it's stuck with legal counsel and the damages are mitigated and because Biden is a dove. That assumption doesn't hold when the next GOP is president.

The RMB will never be a reserve currency because china's capital acocunt is not open. Without USD access, China's economy will disappear

China isn't a large source of US final demand. The US literally sabotaged Japan's economy, it is a win and the US will win again when it successfully throws China economy back into a great depression

30% market share isn't even half. Most of it is controlled by US slaves. LOLOLOL

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Infrastructure bill is domestic politics. Much like many other issues that influence domestic political interests, it will take time. China isn't one of those issues.

No. China's economy won't disappear as the threat has been recognized since long and efforts to tackle it being actively done.

China is a large source of demand for many US companies and businesses. China derives 5% of GDP from trade with US.

Xsizor said:

Infrastructure bill is domestic politics. Much like many other issues that influence domestic political interests, it will take time. China isn't one of those issues.

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Exactly my point. All US policies take time, esp. because you need to manage interest group politics and any potential lawsuits arising from the APA. That applies to China policy as well which is why Trump didn't do it (it's because he didn't know the process), Biden isn't doing it because he is a dove but the next GOP president in January 2025 definitely will be doing it.

Xsizor said:

No. China's economy won't disappear as the threat has been recognized since long and efforts to tackle it being actively done.

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Nope, the US only ramped up containment recently and what's going on now is only the start (and even then you see China's growth rate falling 0.1-0.2pp). The US went from balancing with open economic engagement to pure containment and it's only starting.

Xsizor said:

China is a large source of demand for many US companies and businesses. China derives 5% of GDP from trade with US.

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US corporates are politically homeless, no one cares about them. That 5% of GDP is a pure accounting figure, the actual result is much more because of multipliers (for example, Huawei's imports of American semiconductors). Even assuming a simple 5x multiplier, that's 25% of GDP that can disappear the second the White House signs an IEEPA order. And that's only the beginning because of China's other trading partners that will dump China and for the few economies that stick with China, the absolute collapse in their economies and import demand from China after the US brain drains and destabilizes them, the money China will have to spend on reinventing the wheel, on domestic security instead of education, on the military, etc, etc before demographic crises, financial meltdown and environmental catastrophe start setting in. Just a few years and once all the US administrative actions have come up, China's economy will melt down like a heap of trash, never to rise again, just like Japan's economy in the 1990s after it got Plaza-ed. The US can also start a war in Asia by recognizing Taiwan or giving Japan moral hazard which would substantially hurt China's economy more than it would hurt the United States economy (and China's demographics) and on and on and on. The US is just getting started and China's economy already has 0.1-0.2pp drops in GDP from US shocks to trade and technology. Just wait until the secondary financial sanctions, coercion of "allies", and wars start. China's GDP will drop like a rock but the US with its reforms on single-family housing, minority inclusion, public investment (research, child care, community college and infrastructure ), immigration, competition reforms, money printing, tax cuts and deregulation will soar

SleepyStudent said:

Exactly my point. All US policies take time, esp. because you need to manage interest group politics and any potential lawsuits arising from the APA. That applies to China policy as well which is why Trump didn't do it (it's because he didn't know the process), Biden isn't doing it because he is a dove but the next GOP president in January 2025 definitely will be doing it.

Nope, the US only ramped up containment recently and what's going on now is only the start (and even then you see China's growth rate falling 0.1-0.2pp). The US went from balancing with open economic engagement to pure containment and it's only starting.

US corporates are politically homeless, no one cares about them. That 5% of GDP is a pure accounting figure, the actual result is much more because of multipliers (for example, Huawei's imports of American semiconductors). Even assuming a simple 5x multiplier, that's 25% of GDP that can disappear the second the White House signs an IEEPA order. And that's only the beginning because of China's other trading partners that will dump China, the money China will have to spend on reinventing the wheel, on domestic security instead of education, on the military, etc, etc before demographic crises, financial meltdown and environmental catastrophe start setting in. Just a few years and once all the US administrative actions have come up, China's economy will melt down like a heap of trash, never to rise again, just like Japan's economy in the 1990s after it got Plaza-ed.

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The counterpoint would be immediate cessation of trade with US, no more goods coming to LA docks... within matter of weeks Walmart empty, Amazon 404, and you'll get riots the likes of which never before seen in mankind, and civil war 2.0 at US doorsteps... DOW might hit even higher but at that point a roll of toilet paper will go for $1000+ America is already breaking apart at the seams all it takes is one small nudge and its GAME STOP over.

Two can play this game, and measured by PPP the Chinese economy is almost twice the size of USA economy if you take out the fake imputed rents and the 25% spent on "healthcare" and the other large excess spent on MIC

9dashline said:

The counterpoint would be immediate cessation of trade with US, no more goods coming to LA docks... within matter of weeks Walmart empty, Amazon 404, and you'll get riots the likes of which never before seen in mankind, and civil war 2.0 at US doorsteps... DOW might hit even higher but at that point a roll of toilet paper will go for $1000+ America is already breaking apart at the seams all it takes is one small nudge and its GAME STOP over.

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Doesn't matter. The US can stockpile, get them from other trading partners and simply shift consumption from tradeable goods to nontradable services

9dashline said:

Two can play this game, and measured by PPP the Chinese economy is almost twice the size of USA economy if you take out the fake imputed rents and the 25% spent on "healthcare" and the other large excess spent on MIC

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They aren't fake. US secondary financial sanctions isn't fake. US recognition of Taiwan isn't fake. US export controls aren't fake.

SleepyStudent said:

Nope, the only reason why the US hasn't used them is because the US has a policy process that is slow and Biden is dovish but obviously, the US wiill implement all of it under the next GOP president that is mildly hawkish *AND* has a consistent NSC process to work through

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Oh my goodness, where to start with so much wrong?

You think all those cards magically only appeared now? If they were so super duper, you think Trumpy Trump would have held back from playing them?

SleepyStudent said:

China can't. China runs current account surpluses and China doesn't have an open capital account

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SWIFT means nothing if it’s not fit for purpose, and the entire reason for the world using SWIFT will be made null and void if economies suddenly couldn’t trade with their biggest trading partner, not to mention the irreparable reputational damage that will cause. Would you still want to use the same bank if it suddenly decided it didn’t want you to buy from the biggest shop in town?

America playing the SWIFT card will create the mother of all incentives for the entire world to adapt a parallel system because the rest of the world will not magically not need to trade with China just because America threw its dumdum out the pram.

In the short term, China can agree bilateral currency swaps almost overnight with all affected nations to facilitate trade without needing to change anything fundamental, and in the medium run, the Europeans will develop a SWIFT alternative if China doesn’t get there first. Nothing changes for China and the rest of the world, but suddenly America has isolated itself further and can kiss its long arm legal BS goodbye. If you really are a lawyer as you claim, then you should know how much extortion money that will cost the US justice department alone.

SleepyStudent said:

That's a win for the United States because Japan's economy crashing pushes Japan towards the United States and reduces aggregate demand for China's product

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You forget Japan’s economy going down the toilet also reduced aggregate demand for America’s products and reduces Japanese defence spending. Turning net security contributor into a net burden. Just see how much good NK is as an ally before you get too invested in remaking Japan in its image

SleepyStudent said:

Yep. You shock it and you fuck up millions of Chinese developers for years and years and afterwards, they have maybe a 30% market share? Sounds beautiful

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You do realise app and software developers can and do release their products across different OS right? Apple and Android is just the current duopoly, there is nothing stopping a third, Chinese OS alternative.

Then it’s a competition of handset quality and features, and America lost that fight several phone generations back.

Again, the consumers will get what they want, America creating artificial barriers to stop them will only work in the very short term while creating a lot of resentment. Huawei is already making massive headway with its own OS, any American blanket ban will only serve to unite all Chinese handset makers behind that endeavour and supercharging its development.

SleepyStudent said:

Nope. Secondary sanctions will end all of that really quickly. Plus, no one has liquidity in capital markets like the United States

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So, the US is going to sanction EU companies for doing normal business with China? Good luck fighting economic wars with everyone.

SleepyStudent said:

Exactly my point. All US policies take time, esp. because you need to manage interest group politics and any potential lawsuits arising from the APA. That applies to China policy as well which is why Trump didn't do it (it's because he didn't know the process), Biden isn't doing it because he is a dove but the next GOP president in January 2025 definitely will be doing it.

Nope, the US only ramped up containment recently and what's going on now is only the start (and even then you see China's growth rate falling 0.1-0.2pp). The US went from balancing with open economic engagement to pure containment and it's only starting.

US corporates are politically homeless, no one cares about them. That 5% of GDP is a pure accounting figure, the actual result is much more because of multipliers (for example, Huawei's imports of American semiconductors). Even assuming a simple 5x multiplier, that's 25% of GDP that can disappear the second the White House signs an IEEPA order. And that's only the beginning because of China's other trading partners that will dump China and for the few economies that stick with China, the absolute collapse in their economies and import demand from China after the US brain drains and destabilizes them, the money China will have to spend on reinventing the wheel, on domestic security instead of education, on the military, etc, etc before demographic crises, financial meltdown and environmental catastrophe start setting in. Just a few years and once all the US administrative actions have come up, China's economy will melt down like a heap of trash, never to rise again, just like Japan's economy in the 1990s after it got Plaza-ed.

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Its isn't usually the President's job to know the processes. There are administrative machinery to figure out the processes.

And if the US is just getting started, then China is too.

The rest of your paragraph is amusing.
Were you typing down your wet dream?

" US will do this and that and China's economy will melt down like a heap of trash."
Ha.