Good point. However, if American troops deployed to Taiwan, the US would be committed: committed to fight China in a war that could easily go nuclear. Does the US want that?
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Good point. However, if American troops deployed to Taiwan, the US would be committed: committed to fight China in a war that could easily go nuclear. Does the US want that?
Didn't Obama already bring like 60 to 70 percent of America's naval strength to East Asia and the wider Pacific region during the pivot to Asia. Much of their core strength is already focused on China almost close to 10 years. Now it is a matter of orientating those forces for maximum efficiency.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
True in theory, but changes practically nothing in reality.
Taiwan’s true top value to America are, or rather were, threefold, one of which no longer applies.
Firstly, it serves as a primary strategic magnet for China in that Taiwan dominates Chinese military and diplomatic focus. Unless and until Taiwan is reunited with China, it will always be China’s top priority. That buys America valuable time and breathing space in the rest of the world. If America feels pressed by China in Africa, the ME and even Europe now, it would be a hundred times worse if China didn’t need to worry about Taiwan and can instead focus completely on dominating the next century and beyond.
Secondly, it acts as the ultimate failsafe for China to check Chinese growth and power in the most direct way possible - direct war; with the added bonus of being able to easily and convincingly frame China as the indisputable aggressor.
The third benefit was that Taiwan could be played as a card to get valuable concessions out China by America without needing to give up anything of value themselves. All they need to do is get Taiwan to stir shit up and come in offering to calm things down for a price. This third strategy is no longer viable thanks to historic low relations between China and America, and Chinese raw power.
You can see American trying to pull this shit by making extremely provocative moves like landing military aircraft on Taiwan and planning visits by senior officials.
In years past, China would have come to the table to bargain for America to back off. But today, Chinese raw hard power is such that it no longer fears direct military conflict with America over Taiwan, and basically said as much with its blunt and specific rebuff of Blindard Blinken’s position of strength gaff.
That also links back to point 2, in that in the past, military conflict was seen as a viable option because of American conventional military superiority. But even then America’s carefully maintained strategic ambiguity over its commitment to Taiwan allows them to pick and choose whether to fight or not if China did invade.
Furthermore, any war triggered by American troop forward deployments to Taiwan will be hard for even the western MSM to spin as entirely China’s fault. That makes it much harder for American administrations to stomach the enormous US casualty numbers that will be all but assured from such a war, win or loss.
To deploy troops to Taiwan is to declare war on China. There can be no dispute or ambiguity about that. Furthermore, any meaningful scale troop deployments will be impossible to hide from China, so other than being able to determine the precise timing of the war, America really does not gain any meaningful advantage from such a move.
The PLA will not allow American troop ships to land on Taiwan. It will be a Cuban missile crisis like stand off with either the PLAN facing off against the USN in open waters, or China launching a full invasion as US forces are underway with warnings that anything military that comes within a thousand miles of the conflict will be engaged without warning or mercy.
The USN can gather is fleets in advanced in preparation, but that’s no different to today. If America wants a war with China tomorrow, all it needs to do is give Taiwan a call and tell them to declare independence and it will have said war exactly when they want it.
supercat
Colonel
It will take a relatively long time for the actual troop transfer to carry through, and China will get advanced warning from it's intelligence unit long before the intended transfer. China will have ample time to react, because the events occur on China's home turf.
In other news, every 4 years or so, the western MSM will get really mad at China's accomplishment at the Olympics:
Oh, and while we are at it, why not blame China for yet one more thing? The increased suicide in the US military:
bajingan
Senior Member
also if i may add to that, where will us soldiers, aircrafts be based in taiwan? before any us troops lands in taiwanese shores, all taiwan barracks, airfields, ports will be reduced to rubble by PLA cruise missiles
They might need to set up camping site lol
That and sustainable logistics are what people usually disregard. I was listening to this retired USN four-star admiral the other day. He was quite confident that the US military has advanced weapon systems China cannot even dream about. He didn't miss the opportunity to claim that China wouldn't be able to protect the amphibious fleet. Obviously, being blind and deaf to new developments in China is a preferable thing now...
His name was Dennis C. Blair, former U.S. Director of National Intelligence (2009-2010), Former Commander in Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command (1999-2002)...
Just what the heck is India's endgame here?
Unilateral imposition of will won’t bring peace in Afghanistan’
India also reacted to Wednesday and meeting the leadership there. The meeting happened at the same time as visit to New Delhi.
If US has some advanced weapon systems that China can't even begin to imagine, or Russia by that matter, US would have already use it on China or Russia, or some third world poor schmoes already. Given the US still haven't obliterate Taliban in Afghanistan after 20 years and ending combat in Iraq this year, I am gonna assume US doesn't have Alien technology that this admiral claimed.
Actually, I don't know how successful Obama's Asian redeployment was. Or how much of US strength is really in the East or Southeast Asian areas. As I said, I'm no military expert.
However, I do know that the US has commitments elsewhere. To Israel, for instance. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan could be an attempt to focus more resources on China, but I doubt that Israel is happy that the US's ability to defend the little country is now lower than ever.
The US is seriously into imperial overstretch: as I said to @voyager1/@Kaine, if the US were completely engaged with fighting China, that would be the best time for the Sword of Jerusalem to destroy Israel.
Remember this? Well we have some more movement on this front. Someone asked Zhao Lijian today about Blinken meeting Dalai and
Standard response right, usually he would more or less stop right here, but instead he went on:
That bold line is very nearly CPC's final judgement on Dalai Lama. There will be no reproach with him for his remaining days and when he dies and the 15th Dalai Lama reincarnate is found the exile's political purpose will end, regardless of weather they come forward with their own reincarnation or not. When that happens we should expect India to start make a move on them.
The big show is coming, get your popcorn and guazi stocked up.