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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
3.9% nominal growth, 5% real gdp growth, retail sales up 3.7% are in my opinion far below China's potential and what China should be targeting.
LOL Everything's below our potential cus our potential is limitless!! Yay! 20% nominal, 25% real, 30% retail are wayyyyyy below our endless dragon celestial kingdom potential!! Needs to be in the thousands of percent just to express some of the potential in our pinky toe... nail!
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AndrewJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
3.9% nominal growth, 5% real gdp growth, retail sales up 3.7% are in my opinion far below China's potential and what China should be targeting.

China is in deflation mode. Estate crisis shrinks the domestic residents' expenditure confidence. Everyone is saving money rather than spending. This turns into a vicious cycle, everyone spends less, adding with the AI+automation, jobs and earnings become less, which makes everyone spend further less.

The government has come up with lots of policys, but all were not that effective as expected. Meanwhile, the gap between rich & poor remains large. Everyone is pessimistic about the economy future.

The country's tech is leading the world and fast advancing, but majority of 1.4 billion is not working in the tech sector, they are the ones to be replaced by AI & robots. They're left behind by the great era. They can only depend on the normal service sector. But if the domestic consumer spending can't go up, the service sector cannot absorb the largest amount of working-age population, China is doomed. Countless problems will come along as unemployment ratio keeps going up.
 
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TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia is transforming itself into a nice city. There's definitely some Chinese vibe to it. The multi-bulb street lamps and LED building facade feels very Chinese.

Addis Ababa is a complete opposite to the capital city of a certain Supapowar who had wanted to claim leadership of the Global South. A clear example of quiet, but tangible progress versus loud, but hollow rethoric.
Less we forget too just a few years ago rebel armies were on the capital's doorstep. Amazing they've made such progress despite that civil war.
 

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
LOL Everything's below our potential cus our potential is limitless!! Yay! 20% nominal, 25% real, 30% retail are wayyyyyy below our endless dragon celestial kingdom potential!! Needs to be in the thousands of percent just to express some of the potential in our pinky toe... nail!
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At China's stage of growth, these numbers should easily be:
9-10% nominal
6-7% real gdp
10% nominal wage growth rates
5% youth unemployment

That's what will satisfy me.

China is in deflation mode. Estate crisis shrinks the domestic residents' expenditure confidience. Everyone is saving money rather than spending. This turns into a vicious cycle, everyone spends less, adding with the AI+automation, jobs and earnings become less, which makes everyone spend further less.

The government has come up with lots of policys, but all were not that effective as expected. Meanwhile, the gap between rich & poor remain large. Everyone is pessimistic about the economy future.

The country's tech is leading the world and fast advancing, but majority of 1.4 billion is not work in the tech sector, they are the ones to be replaced by AI & robots. They're left behind by the great era. They can only depends on the normal service sector. But if the domestic consumer spending can't go up, the service sector cannot absorb the largest number of working-age population, China is doomed. Countless problems will come along as unemployment ratio keeps going up.

A large stimulus is what economic theory would suggest. The Europeans are still regretting their conservative response to post 2008 financial collapse.

A large stimulus is the need of the hour, focused towards tech and babies. You need to put the floor under both real estate downturn and babies production. Buy cheap real estate and just gift it to mamas with 3 babies.

Implement labor laws brutally, (except in cases of national strategic importance like Huawei).

Give holidays.

Increase minimum wages by a LOT. the base is very low right now.
 

gcc

New Member
Registered Member
Estate crisis shrinks the domestic residents' expenditure confidience. Everyone is saving money rather than spending. This turns into a vicious cycle,
what? saving rate had always been ~45% gdp recently
ironically increasing the most from 2000 to 2010, where china had the greatest gdp growth and outlook should be the brightest
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jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
I hope they do it. Kill every single bit of Japanese pop culture influence, once and for all, in China please. Sorry, but if war is on the horizon, then every tether that might soften Chinese hearts towards the Japanese must be broken so that China can do WHATEVER is necessary come that day...

For that China will have to substitute all Japanese anime, manga, games etc. Some of it is being done, but not quick enough nor extensively enough.

Regulation in the soft power sphere actively harms the industry with their stupid rules.

One of my friends who basically grew up on Japanese content, is addicted to Japan. He went to Japan recently despite the China-Japan tensions. I wanted to tell him not to, but couldn't bring myself to be so intrusive. There's no shortage in China of the type.
 

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
what? saving rate had always been ~45% gdp recently
ironically increasing the most from 2000 to 2010, where china had the greatest gdp growth and outlook should be the brightest
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This is gross savings rate, it is not the savings people are making from their wages. It is (nominal gdp - consumption)/nominal gdp
 
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