Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

WarAndPeace said:

Taiwan compared to China is Donbas compared to Ukraine. It is independent and has its own government.

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Yeah but not internationally recognized by anyone, I wouldn't call it independent, only recognition (and not by a few no name states, by the majority of the major UN players at least).

Only independent states can have government so neither does Taiwan (nor Donetsk) have a government in that sense.

To me this is probably the most important lesson from the Ukraine conflict. Make sure you stock up enough weapons for a long duration conflict. Make sure you can fight high intensity war for long period of time. Make sure you put in the investment into your defense industry so they can sustain high level production. This is actually one advantage that China has over the West. Western defense firms need a large long term commitment to do the investment needed to do this and that would involve a huge political battle where politicians want sexy capital items like stealth fighters or warships with large number of VLS. They don't really think about the investment needed to build your industrial base.

Whereas China already has this great industrial base and supply chain and know how to ramp up production. So in this case, I think the most obvious point is to ramp up their production of every type of missiles. It makes no sense to procure J-20s/J-16s if you don't have enough air launched missiles to go with them. It makes no sense to procure 052Ds/055s if you don't buy enough LACMs, SAMs, AShM to put in them. You can't sustain a conflict in westpac/Taiwan without having several thousands of PCH191 370 mm rockets or enough LACMs or HGVs or MRBMs. You can sustain ground attacks without enough PGMs and ground attack munitions for your fighter jets, UAVs and helicopters. Ramp up your purchases/production of these missiles to a new level and sustain and stockpile them.

If there is one thing to learn from the Russians, it would be that high volume of older projectiles and missiles still make a huge difference.

WarAndPeace said:

Taiwan compared to China is Donbas compared to Ukraine. It is independent and has its own government.

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In essence, it is still a civil war that has not officially ended due to geographical factors. The official embassy can only choose between Beijing and Taipei.
However, I have no expectations for the West. They can decide whether part of a country should be independent at will when necessary.

tphuang said:

Whereas China already has this great industrial base and supply chain and know how to ramp up production. So in this case, I think the most obvious point is to ramp up their production of every type of missiles. It makes no sense to procure J-20s/J-16s if you don't have enough air launched missiles to go with them. It makes no sense to procure 052Ds/055s if you don't buy enough LACMs, SAMs, AShM to put in them. You can't sustain a conflict in westpac/Taiwan without having several thousands of PCH191 370 mm rockets or enough LACMs or HGVs or MRBMs. You can sustain ground attacks without enough PGMs and ground attack munitions for your fighter jets, UAVs and helicopters. Ramp up your purchases/production of these missiles to a new level and sustain and stockpile them.

If there is one thing to learn from the Russians, it would be that high volume of older projectiles and missiles still make a huge difference.

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At present, China's ammunition production capacity is difficult to estimate. Military enthusiasts may have a more comprehensive understanding of the production capacity of aircraft and warships, but few people care about the production capacity of missiles and artillery shells.
A few years ago, "yankeesama“（or Xi Yazhou) once commented on Taiwan people's fear of MLRS in the mainland. He once used the data envisaged in the Han Kuang Exercise to verify with CNIGC people. The reply was that it was very inefficient to use long-range rockets to cover the whole Taiwan. But if the factory had extra shifts, it could completely supply the ammunition needed for such operations.

zhangjim said:

A few years ago, "yankeesama“（or Xi Yazhou) once commented on Taiwan people's fear of MLRS in the mainland. He once used the data envisaged in the Han Kuang Exercise to verify with CNIGC people. The reply was that it was very inefficient to use long-range rockets to cover the whole Taiwan.

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How so? Aren't long-range rockets cheaper and more efficient to mass-produce and launched at not-so-critical targets across the strait compared to dedicated missiles?

ACuriousPLAFan said:

How so? Aren't long-range rockets cheaper and more efficient to mass-produce and launched at not-so-critical targets across the strait compared to dedicated missiles?

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Probably more efficient to fly drones (big ones) after destroying like 99% of actual air defenses or the likes.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

How so? Aren't long-range rockets cheaper and more efficient to mass-produce and launched at not-so-critical targets across the strait compared to dedicated missiles?

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The quote seems to be more of a sustainability issue rather than effectiveness or efficiency. Probably along the lines that China will use more MLRS rockets then production can keep up but it also says the operation is possible if factory production is increased.

Does Canada have a navy (If they do now, maybe not for much longer)?

Dear China, this will teach you to not embarrass Trudeau.

Canada to send more warships through Taiwan Strait in signal to China​

"...

Speaking from Bucharest where she was attending a Nato foreign ministers’ meeting, Joly said Canada was “committing to new military assets” in the Indo-Pacific to help ensure peace and stability there. She was speaking just after Canada released its first strategy for the region which called for a “once-in-a-generation shift”.

The Nato ministers in Bucharest held a wide-ranging discussion on China, as the US urges the transatlantic security alliance to pay more attention to the ramifications of possible Chinese military action against Taiwan.

... [blah blah blah]."

Barefoot said:

Does Canada have a navy (If they do now, maybe not for much longer)?

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Yes, 12 frigates as their largest combatants. But all of them are from the 1980s and 1990s.

Newer frigates would have to wait until late 2020s to enter service with the RCN.

tphuang said:

What are you talking about? There won't be any electricity power in Taiwan or surrounding regions that might support it. And China will have 24/7 EW aircraft coverage jamming signals. That's before we talk about the satellites themselves that China will have ASAT weapons for if Elon doesn't play ball. This is a non issue. If you want to discuss further on this, we have a Taiwan thread.

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Diesel generators to provide power for Starlink receivers.
The ground dishes can probably set to receive only, no transmission. In a restart civil war scenario, American and Japanese AEW assets can provide the search radar function and transmit the locations of PLAAF's assets to Taiwan air-defense forces through Starlink. The Taiwan air-defense missiles then point their fire-control radar to the targets and fire off the missiles. The radar only needs to be on for a few minutes till the missile reaches terminal guidance phase, then the radar gets turn off and the brigade moves to another location.

I'm sure that's what is happening in Ukraine. In a restarted civil war, China needs to make clear to the US and its vassals that PLA will take out all hostile AEW assets around Taiwan Island.

vincent said:

Diesel generators to provide power for Starlink receivers.
The ground dishes can probably set to receive only, no transmission. In a restart civil war scenario, American and Japanese AEW assets can provide the search radar function and transmit the locations of PLAAF's assets to Taiwan air-defense forces through Starlink. The Taiwan air-defense missiles then point their fire-control radar to the targets and fire off the missiles. The radar only needs to be on for a few minutes till the missile reaches terminal guidance phase, then the radar gets turn off and the brigade moves to another location.

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Is there any possible way to jam those Starlink receivers by the PLA? Or even the Starlink satellites?

Meanwhile, if China launches AR on Taiwan while the US and her allies avoid direct participation while providing indirect participation, should Beijing send a stern note to Ma Yilong, warning him not to provide Starlink to Taiwan, or risk having his Shangai Gigafactory nationalized by China, among other measures?

vincent said:

I'm sure that's what is happening in Ukraine. In a restarted civil war, China needs to make clear to the US and its vassals that PLA will take out all hostile AEW assets around Taiwan Island.

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How to do that if the American and Japanese AEW assets are flying over the Yaeyama Islands? Despite being close to Taiwan, they are still legally recognized as Japanese territory, and doing so would mean an act of war against Japan and the US (if that isn't the intention of Beijing).

That's why Russia did not shoot down NATO AEW assets flying over Romania, Poland and the Baltic states.