Ladakh Flash Point

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ougoah

Brigadier
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If by presence you mean patrols, then both sides had presence in the areas of disengagement. And as you yourself have admitted, India still has patrols and permanent camps in other disputed areas. In some areas like Galwan, India actually has a bigger presence than it did before 2020.

I didn't admit anything. Stop using that as if I'm wrong before. I am saying India had presence and patrol in the past. They still do but nowhere near as much as they did. You are saying they have more now. Well you can believe that all you want. This matter will be settled. You and Jai Hinds can believe victory all you want but from Afghanistan to Bangladesh your influence is being eroded. Even in Ladakh the facts are your patrols and access has gone from full access to 20% to now only access to the non-buffered lands and probably will eventually settle with Indians moving out of the remaining places you still have presence.

You're side has lost access and you know it. Now you and many others like you are resetting prior conditions and goals. Your side has gone from saying "we will capture Aksai Chin with blood", to China moved on us! Your side is now saying you never patrolled those places lol do you see how much cope is there?

You are only saying your side has never patrolled or only rarely patrolled because you can't patrol many of those areas now at all.
 

twineedle

Junior Member
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I didn't admit anything. Stop using that as if I'm wrong before. I am saying India had presence and patrol in the past. They still do but nowhere near as much as they did. You are saying they have more now. Well you can believe that all you want. This matter will be settled. You and Jai Hinds can believe victory all you want but from Afghanistan to Bangladesh your influence is being eroded. Even in Ladakh the facts are your patrols and access has gone from full access to 20% to now only access to the non-buffered lands and probably will eventually settle with Indians moving out of the remaining places you still have presence.
You are forgetting that China also has no access to those areas anymore as well. So the fact is China went from full access to those areas to no access at all.
And in some areas within the 20%, India has increased its presence. For example prior to 2020, India had no permanent camps in Galwan. Now you can see for yourself how many India has there, along with new bridges and roads. As you said, that is within the 20%.

Don't know why you are changing the subject by bringing up Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

And when did I say India had no patrols in Gogra at all? I simply said India never patrolled beyond pp17A, which is around the point I showed you earlier. That is the protocol created by the China Study Group which the Indian Army and ITBP have to follow.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
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You are forgetting that China also has no access to those areas anymore as well. So China lost access to those areas.
And in some areas within the 20%, India has increased its presence. For example prior to 2020, India had no permanent camps in Galwan. Now you can see for yourself how many India has there, along with new bridges and roads. As you said, that is within the 20%.

Don't know why you are changing the subject by bringing up Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

And when did I say India had no patrols in Gogra at all? I simply said India never patrolled beyond pp17A, which is around the point I showed you earlier.

You are forgetting the goals here. China wants to demarcate which India refuses because it claims Aksai Chin. China's demarcation does not give Aksai Chin to India so there is no agreement. The next best thing for China is to make a buffer so India does not patrol or access the land adjacent to Aksai Chin.

Let's say for sake of this point getting across, both sides patrolled the 20% equally frequently in equal presence levels prior to standoff*.
Now China and India in a buffer situation, both lose access. Who loses more? Who is more unwilling? India loses main goal by the entire Switzerland sized Aksai Chin and has no access to remaining 20%. China loses main goal (of demarcating on its preferred terms of actual claims) by a slither of land not 26% the size of Askai Chin in total (assuming entire 20% becomes buffer).

China ensures the threat of India acting on Aksai Chin is gone in return of the cost of losing access to 20%. Net result China loses 20% access of legacy dispute and wins 80% of legacy dispute for good. Settled.

India net simply loses access to 20% and total loss of 80% legacy dispute. Total loss of 100%.

This is why india refuses buffer and sent around 200k troops to this region partly in an effort to show Modi is doing something and partly to gain negotiation bargaining power. China ain't afraid of your 200k men. China can turn your 200k men to dust within a day if it so wishes. This is why it stood its ground and did not cede the 20% to de facto Indian control. India has presence in this 20% before and has less now since Pangong and Gogra have both become buffers. If China were worried about India going to war here, it would simply say India you can have the 20%. Instead, it occupied Pangong lake fingers and parts of Galwan and Demchok moving much further west than PLA ever controlled during the last few decades. It then forced buffer deal out of India to achieve secondary objective since primary of demarcation cannot possibly be palatable to India.

China does not want war. It cannot push India into one by cornering Modi too much. It needs to offer some outs. These outs are in the form of okay you don't want to demarcate today but you also cannot have the 20% and in fact not even presence or access for a lot of it now.

This is the nuance in the "well both sides moved back"... yes but the context and peripherals make the situation and upper hand as clear as a cloudless day.
 

ougoah

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* Now for breaking down that assumption. I believe China had patrols within the 20% as well of course but I believe that India patrolled more. This makes sense to me because of the following reasons.

  • India's own ex FOUR STAR GENERAL VK Singh is on record (not sure if Indian government has silenced that now) saying Indian troops performed 10 times more patrols as China within undisclosed disputed land. Now do the maths and imagine what he might be talking about in 2020.
  • China would be foolish to inflame this border dispute when it is doing so well and it is under scrutiny and threats by the US. It wouldn't instigate this issue.
  • India has nothing to lose. It is at the bottom and as bottom as you can get. In Jan 2020, China was busy locking down cities to contain its covid spread. India doesn't control 80% of legacy dispute, China does. India wants the remaining 20%. Do the maths. More patrols and tents in order to salami slice (a policy practiced by both sides in this legacy history) which the Indians hoped would result in de facto control after and done while they thought China would be way too busy with covid and way too distracted by securing its eastern flanks. They miscalculated.
 

ougoah

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India has plenty of sensible and smart people. It just seems to elect demagogues and many in positions of power are absolute morons. A symptom of a nation in decline and circumstances that make the majority of common people, political extremists who fall prey to demagogeury and feel good head in sand narratives and lies. Contrast with China who's politicians are shrewd cunning f*ckers working on an imperfect but certainly merit and results based system where more often than not, are industry experts and engineers, not expert trashtalkers and lawyers.

India elected Modi, the barely literate high school drop out (Indian high school from the mid 20th century too!) who declares victory over Covid right before Covid spread in India. Absolute moron. Amit Shah the "we will take Aksai Chin by blood" blobman and the whole slew of Indian "mUh Su-30mKi can beat J-20" crew of military "leaders".
 

twineedle

Junior Member
Registered Member
India has plenty of sensible and smart people. It just seems to elect demagogues and many in positions of power are absolute morons. A symptom of a nation in decline and circumstances that make the majority of common people, political extremists who fall prey to demagogeury and feel good head in sand narratives and lies. Contrast with China who's politicians are shrewd cunning f*ckers working on an imperfect but certainly merit and results based system where more often than not, are industry experts and engineers, not expert trashtalkers and lawyers.

India elected Modi, the barely literate high school drop out (Indian high school from the mid 20th century too!) who declares victory over Covid right before Covid spread in India. Absolute moron. Amit Shah the "we will take Aksai Chin by blood" blobman and the whole slew of Indian "mUh Su-30mKi can beat J-20" crew of military "leaders".
So how do you explain the fact that the first major standoff between India and China in 20 years occured under Dr. Singh? If anything, the 2013 standoff created many of the problems between India and China this decade, and some of the current standoffs are because of that incident. Modi actually tried to reset ties with China.

And the reason why demarcation has not been successful in the past is because there are areas along the LAC where both sides have significant differences in perspective, such as Gogra; where China says the LAC runs along the Kugrang while India recognizes the Colombo Line, and Depsang; where India says the LAC lies past the bottleneck while China says it is close to Burtse. That is why instead of a deal delineating the LAC, India and China signed a deal in 1993 outlining protocols to maintain peace and prosperity along the LAC. This included allowing both sides to send unarmed patrols to their respective perceptions of the LAC.

And as we discussed before, there is also the issue of China tying deals on delineation of the border to India ceding Tawang.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
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So how do you explain the fact that the first major standoff between India and China in 20 years occured under Dr. Singh? If anything, the 2013 standoff created many of the problems between India and China this decade, and some of the current standoffs are because of that incident. Modi actually tried to reset ties with China.

I'm not attributing all Chinese and Indian disputes to India's growing preference for ultra nationalistic fantasies and politicians.

In fact the origins of PRC and India disputes stem from British history in India and its lasting affects on Indian leaders, indeed even citizens to some degree. I find sensible and intelligent Indians often also take very western mindset when they are dealing with any and almost all geopolitical issues that don't relate to India's history with the struggle against imperialism. When it comes to that, the attitude is immediately 180ed. It is a strange dichotomy.

Modi did seem to act in good faith when he came to power. Both sides met, talked and agreed on plenty of points on how to move forwards wrt bilateral relations and in particular border disputes which also involved Pakistan India issues in the Kashmir dispute. Only in terms of China's BRI interests that use and travel through this region or at least adjacent to, and China's claims in Ladakh which are no less valid than India's, if anything they are greater due to India's twice removed from the J&K issue and China being Tibet, and Tibet being China. Anyway that of course is a point we would never agree on. Modi's policies do not have to stay consistent. Plenty of democratically elected leaders go into office saying and doing one thing and then doing the opposite and all sorts. In fact nearly all of them do this. Modi's actions in 2019 and 2020 are different to those in 2014.

And the reason why demarcation has not been successful in the past is because there are areas along the LAC where both sides have significant differences in perspective, such as Gogra; where China says the LAC runs along the Kugrang while India recognizes the Colombo Line, and Depsang; where India says the LAC lies past the bottleneck while China says it is close to Burtse. That is why instead of a deal delineating the LAC, India and China signed a deal in 1993 outlining protocols to maintain peace and prosperity along the LAC. This included allowing both sides to send unarmed patrols to their respective perceptions of the LAC.

And as we discussed before, there is also the issue of China tying deals on delineation of the border to India ceding Tawang.

Yes both don't see the same borders. That is of course the foundational problem here. But attempts at demarcation have not been successful because India wants Aksai Chin and offers of compromise by China have never and will never include Aksai Chin. Hence India has never agreed to any offers and China has not been able to settle this border with India this whole time. China has maybe just another 20% or so to gain at most while India has 100% to gain. China is the one not in a hurry to risk war or anything but of course isn't too concerned about war with India despite India having far less to lose than China. It considers India's appetite for war with China to be absolutely as minimal as China's is for war.

China also isn't in a hurry to demarcate. It has control of 80%. If it cannot demarcate because India refuses to and by definition, both sides need to agree for a demarcation, China wants to create a buffer between the 80% it controls (that India claims and wants) and the line that marks India proper aka what China claims which is further west compared to what China has offered as compromise demarcation in the past. Whether the specifics of the buffer lines include what China claims or just what China has offered as demarcation in the past, is of minimal consequence. The primary purpose of buffer land is to make sure India does not have access to any stretch of land that is adjacent and connected to Aksai Chin. So far only Pangong and Gogra have reached this status but Demchok, and norther stretches have not, with both sides having some presence within.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Wow... That is one smokey tank. I am no expert, but isn't such huge volume of black exhaust smoke caused by improper burning of fuel? Was it due to the altitude or just some issue with the engine?

All tanks "feature" this. It's caused by incomplete combustion due to lack of oxygen. More prevalent during starting of motion. Just like your car burns more fuel going from 0 to 20 than 20 to 40 as most tanks would be tuned to access more power and torque in low engine speeds to overcome inertia.

Some tanks have white fumes or whiter fumes and some use inject certain fuels into combustion chamber for a smoke effect on purpose.
 
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