If there was no obvious military solution here and there isn't a more hidden agenda serving the CCP's strategic goals, then this is quite clearly a stupid blunder. There is definitely some agenda. We know the scrapping of article 370 and India's continuous antagonism before 2020 contributed to suggested motivations, but this isn't the complete picture. There is no need for military antics of this scale for diplomatic problems with diplomatic solutions. CCP has some grand plan or it's utterly hopeless and incompetent as well. How else could all this have ended up? Lol the predictability of the entire set of events proves if anything that the CCP has anticipated every step (because it's so easy in this case) and so it begs the question why.
Ladakh Flash Point
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plawolf
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You are falling for Indian fake news in thinking China is advancing to its claim line. The moves made so far are nowhere even close to the Chinese claim line.
PLA advances have largely been reactionary or tactically minded. A lot of the time the PLA evict Indians from a position they tried to seize and dig in to stop the Indians trying again/as punishment to teach them that trying to salami slice grab land will only mean they loose it; other times it is to take choke points to try to stop or limit Indian salami slicing infiltrations.
These are all extremely limited tactical moves made in response and/or to counter Indian attempts to change the status quo.
Yes, it’s not ideal that China has to surge troops and push back Indian samali slicing, but what is the alternative really?
It's quite likely the PLA gave them a lethal response because the Indian government and its mouthpieces are rather passive now and did not brag or celebrate about chasing PLA away at all. They are only claiming they "thwarted" PLA attacks and PLA fired warning shots. Nothing about PLA being chased away or retreating. Thwarting attacks is a BS statement BTW unless they have a time machine. PLA marching into India and then getting turned away? Are they stupid (oh wait...)?! LOL Why would PLA march into India now without the intention of killing those who stand in their way? It's absolutely nonsensical when you consider the positions and history of this clash. PLA won what they came after. If they want more, they will be killing for it and they will certainly understand they need to kill for it because India of course won't be giving it away. So what thwarting?
I don't get if it's just really low intelligence people writing Indian propaganda but anyone with the capacity to think critically can see how moronic and ridiculous their lies are. They literally do not make any sense without some potent mental gymnastics.
If this is the case then it is a completely different set of conditions and the situation can almost be interpreted as entirely Indian provocations and aggression as opposed to Chinese aggression justified as responses to Indian diplomatic aggression and threatening Chinese interests that run through Kashmir.
Just going to be a chronic problem then with no immediate end or solution in sight. Maybe India is under instruction or maybe it's doing this on its own volition.
Yes, India is buying time. It provokes and then asks for meeting to cool things down. Then it deliberately provokes again.
India is buying time. It provokes then sue for peace. Then it provokes again. It wants to keep the border area hot and force China to deal with the SCS and the western border.
I think Blue is true because Red is false. The Indian side does not want war precisely because it knows the PLA is ready and willing.
China would never have taken the moves it did, if it wasn't ready and willing for war. It cannot afford to get caught in a bluff here. That would be a strategic blunder, which would have jeopardized its entire Western sector strategy in the long-term (all along the border chain with India.) We know that China has been preparing for this for a long time, building massive infrastructure and flooding in forces to its new Theater Command. They can ramp up operations and reinforcements in a short time to get up to full-scale war if needed. This is exactly why India does not want to fight.
Here's another interesting question: Why did China choose the spring season to start this standoff? IMO, it was because if this thing started in August, India could claim that it was winter which stopped them from mobilizing and responding. However, India had ample time to respond in the summer. This shows that China dared India, and gave it the opportunity to hit back if it wanted to.
As for the question 'why is China willing to go to war,' I think that has been covered many times over the course of this thread. The answer to that question is why I think this is just beginning. India will be kept on the back-foot, strategically, for the foreseeable future. The pressure will keep increasing, until India capitulates and changes course, one way or another, the easy way or the hard way. I think Praveen Sawhney is right that this is the direction where this is headed in the long term.
I totally agree with all this and certainly thought this way EXCEPT for the fact that China itself has been offered the opportunity to start the war. It could even create false justifications if it wanted to. China knows India is incapable of fighting this war since it invited India to open it up... didn't even need to falsify reasons, all of them were handed to the Indian side on a silver platter. The Indians didn't bite.
So what is delaying China from going kinetic? This really destroys this theory and all the speculated motivations that come with it.
If one is to say that the idea is just to put pressure on India, then it seems to be unifying their resolve. If Modi weren't doing such a shit job overall, Indians would be putting even greater resources toward resisting China's pressure.
Having said that, based on the situation until today what are your predictions of the end game if any?
We Chinese knows that, colonization and breaking a country is never our thing. Especially in a nuclear armed India. It looks bad on domestic audience and much worse on international audience. If China do that, expect nukes will be flying. In this case nobody wins.
We just have to live with it, just like what the Xiongnu and Mongol harassment to China over the centuries. Like it or not, China and India will still be neighbors for the next thousand years. We see the long term solution of the of the northern barbarians was the Great Wall. Obviously China cannot do that anymore in the southern border. There is no long term solution to this except short term fixes by swatting out the intruders.
The realistic way to approach this, is to develop strategies on how to minimize the cost in maintaining the border. The Chinese civilization is far more smarter now than the Great Wall builders. So maybe technology may lead the way to develop unmanned systems to help maintain the border.
We just have to live with it, just like what the Xiongnu and Mongol harassment to China over the centuries. Like it or not, China and India will still be neighbors for the next thousand years. We see the long term solution of the of the northern barbarians was the Great Wall. Obviously China cannot do that anymore in the southern border. There is no long term solution to this except short term fixes by swatting out the intruders.
The realistic way to approach this, is to develop strategies on how to minimize the cost in maintaining the border. The Chinese civilization is far more smarter now than the Great Wall builders. So maybe technology may lead the way to develop unmanned systems to help maintain the border.
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