Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
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I think that is a good deal for everyone, India wins in the Media and China wins in real life.
A very insightful report.
To quote from the article
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The assessment that India’s rising defence expenditure and its improved ranking as a major military spender is majorly driven by tensions and rivalry with Pakistan and China is not entirely correct. Had it been the case, it would have been reflected in India’ changing military expenditure profile in the form of an increased share of procurement, stores and R&D, among other budget heads. As succinctly depicted in Figure 1, the major driver of India’s defence expenditure has been the manpower cost, particularly the pension, which is remotely connected with India’s current rivalry with Pakistan and China. "
To quote from the article
"
The assessment that India’s rising defence expenditure and its improved ranking as a major military spender is majorly driven by tensions and rivalry with Pakistan and China is not entirely correct. Had it been the case, it would have been reflected in India’ changing military expenditure profile in the form of an increased share of procurement, stores and R&D, among other budget heads. As succinctly depicted in Figure 1, the major driver of India’s defence expenditure has been the manpower cost, particularly the pension, which is remotely connected with India’s current rivalry with Pakistan and China. "
Just to remind, we're talking about a conflict about Taiwan, not a China-India border war here. India media or analysts or people may be highly nationalistic or even delusional about a war between India and China, but this would be a war of option, with huge consequences for India if it chooses to fight against China.
As for Japan, well, it will be between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Japan has no friends or allies in its neighborhood. The US is their security guarantee and spiritual parents. Life without the US is unimaginable for Japan. But fighting directly against China would be hugely consequential, given the history between the two countries and Japan is close to China. So in the end, it will very likely strike a balance: refuse to fight in the front-line citing constitution and history, but support the US logistically and peripherally citing obligation under the mutual defense treaty. It also has the motovation to keep Taiwan separate from China and China weak, if it gets lucky.
Looks like they bought the 100 dead PLA narrative. Indian media are true peacemakers.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
China is spending normally whereas India is spending excessively.
You need to remember that while Chinese military expenditure as a percentage of GDP has remained relatively static over the last few decades, the speed at which the Chinese economy has grown has mean the military has been enjoying near double digit percentage growth in absolutely monetary terms over that same period.
You also need to consider the fact that procurement, especially military procurement which is overwhelmingly big ticket capital equipment equivalent items like tanks, planes and ships, takes a long time to build, and your surge capacity is limited.
Doubling your military budget will not yield double the number of tanks, planes and ships you can make. That is because in order to boost output by more than the surge capacity of existing factories, you need to build additional, new factories and/or expanding existing ones. Those takes years to complete, and once they came online, you will effectively also be locked into a higher minimum annual production volume to keep them operating smoothly.
The only exception to that rule might be in the naval arena, and is really more a consequence of the depressed global civilian shipbuilding market leaving massive over-capacity. Which is something the PLAN has taken full advantage of.
Interestingly, China had also been making significant investment in additional production capabilities in key areas like aircraft production and nuclear sub production.
With Chinese GDP growth rates slowing, and once those new expanded production facilities come online, we may well see an actual increase of the military budget as a percentage of GDP, but such a rise will be very modest, and may even be masked by reporting rounding.
I think a lot will ride on how the new Biden administration behaves towards China. If he pursues a reset in relations, Beijing may well disguise or mask an increase in military spending as a percentage of GDP to not trigger the Americans. But if Biden continues Trump’s confrontational approach, China may well make a point of raising its military spending percentage to send a message/warning.
But back on topic, a key and fundamentally important difference between Chinese and Indian defence spending is that Chinese military spending is overwhelmingly domestic, whereas a huge percentage of the Indian defence budget is spent on foreign arms.
When military spending is domestic, it actually contributes to growth much like any other form of large scale government consumption based spending, which usually yields a multiplier effect. Money spent on imported foreign arms flows directly out of your economy and generals zero economic benefit.
As such, so long as it is not wastefully excessive (which it isn’t by a long shot), Chinese defence spending actually should be an overall contributor and accelerator to Chinese economic growth; whereas Indian defence spending may well be acting as a brake on the Indian economy if the net multiplier gains from the domestic portion of its defence spending is not large enough to offset the direct economic outflows from foreign arms purchases.
I think China's military industrial complex is also pretty innovative and trains lots of young engineers/scientists. Which is also added value to investment.
Pretty much all the Indians run off to the West when given the chance and never come back.
Imagine if China had a poll where a majority of participants stated that they wanted to settle this via talks. The Super Power 2020 folks would instantly see this as vindication.
Yea I know, I thought the scenario moved to, in the event of a conflict between PRC and Taiwan, what other countries would support Taiwan in a way similar to the Korean War UN coalition... So I was just giving me 2 cents on the likelihood of Indian support and Japanese actions.
I was just thinking that in the event that the eastern side of China is busy with possibly invading Taiwan and fending the US-led five eye... the Indians especially their media would be going into over-drive writing stories about how China will fail and be balkanised... and being ever vulture-like opportunists the Indian leadership, might be influenced by the population who would in turn be influenced by the delusions of the media and analyst, to pursue a war or at the very least something akin to an active/hastened ‘forward policy’ under the guise of Tibet liberation or Taiwan freedom or helping the five eyes end the CCP... all the while licking their lips at taking land from China... if we are talking about the Indian going at it alone against China, with possibly and a big possibly the support of the US, then I would say even if the population is delusional enough thanks to their media... the Indian leadership simply wouldn’t have the balls to actually act, at least in the current times...
As for Japan... yea I agree...
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