Ladakh Flash Point

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Xizor

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The last few pages is about Caste System and China's interest in exporting revolution. Realistically, I think many biased for China is overrating China's will, capabilities and misunderstanding the intentions.

Today's China is absolutely focused on economic and comprehensive national development wherever it is possible. Except for some issues that are core national interest - Unification of China, territorial integrity and historical vengeance - China won't be flexing much and interfering in other's business.

This applies to India - China relationship too. China wants territorial integrity when it deals with India. Beyond that it's just economics and the big Indian market. China won't be interested in spending yuans on Caste Systems, Naxal movements or regime change in India (unless the Indian threat becomes that much grave).
 

Xizor

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India's current ruling party is quite justifiably steering the nation against China. But their calculus is very similar to that of Vietnam.

Using the Chinese threat and the promise of an alternative or counterbalance, they are trying to woo the powers that be of the west. What they intend to do is to gain economic prosperity.

Ultimately, I think India got its method right, but the timing and luck is against it - it's too late and too unfortunate. India has failed to prepare itself to be a good place for new Factories and industry.
 

Xizor

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What happened here? India was making so much noise about this for the last few days. Did they blink under some kind of pressure from China?
Got to ask what India offers to Taiwan and what Taiwan offers to India when we discuss a bilateral trade deal.

It's very likely that Taiwan backed out due to the economics in favor of China.
Also, Foxconn actually cheated India (Terry Guo's usual).
 

Sardaukar20

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Moving to critical fields such as optics and electronics and precision engineering India has lagged behind for decades.
The consumer goods a nation makes are spin-offs of critical technologies developed for the defence industries.
( Example: There would be no microwaves in our kitchens if the magnetron had not been developed for military radars).
At the time when China had made several models of fairly robust and accurate still cameras such as Seagull as well as cine cameras, the only cameras India made was a plastic box camera, license built from the German Agfa Company. This is unusual for a nation obsessed with its film industry with a heavy reliance on photography.The entire Bollywood film industry relied on imported cameras and stock.
Similarly in consumer electronics India did poorly manufacturing atrocious quality 3-band Murphy transistor sets , the price of which cost a month's wages of the average middle class family.
It was the same with every other ciass of consumer goods, from bicycles, motorized scooters, sewing machines,TV sets to home appliances. The Indian consumer industry under heavy protection from competitors kept producing shoddy goods until 1992-93 when import bans were lifted.
Till the mid 1990s with Nepal next door smuggling thrived, and the demand for Chinese and Japanese goods were insatiable.
Win Sung fountain pens, National Panasonic Transistor sets, Yashica and Seagull cameras, Funai VCRs, Grundig tape recorders, jackets, gloves, all were smuggled into India from across the Indian border.
Once India went to collaboration and
started manufacturing licensed versions of consumer goods the Indian brands have vanished.
Hindustan Motors made its last Ambassador car in 2013, and a little before that India's last Premier vanished. Tatas makes a fairly basic line of sedans Indigo etc. which are sold nowhere else but in India and Bangladesh. Murphy, Bush and Telerad radio sets have gone into memory lane, and so have Sonodyne and Texla TVs. "Delhi" brand firms making laundry irons and cooking stoves have long since shut down. India imports or license builds all consumer goods to foreign designs. Its own design bureaus have long since hung up their T- scales and slide rules.
Ouch. This story of India's vanishing domestic industry is humiliating for a country so hellbent on declaring themselves the next 'China'. It proves my theory correct that India started with an impressive industrial technology base after its independence. But thanks to excessive protectionism, these industries stagnated technologically. When Indian consumers start to clamour for superior imported goods, this effectively dooms India's domestic brands.

I think the real problem is the lack of innovation by Indian domestic brands. Trade protectionism is just one part of the story. China was, and even to a lesser extent today, practiced annoying levels of trade protectionism and copyright infringements. Chinese manufacturers cloned Japanese and Western designs and produced some really shoddy 'knock-offs' when they are still learning the ropes of innovation and design. But the Chinese companies didn't just clone superior designs, they were learning these designs inside out. But later on as smarter Chinese graduates enter the workforce, combined with Chinese nationalism for improving the country, Chinese companies could innovate. And they innovate big time.

One exemplary area of Chinese innovation is in manufacturing sciences. We mostly associate innovation with brand new products. But there is a whole science for theThat is why Chinese manufacturing might is now unstoppable. One example is the humble electric motor. China and India have factories producing electric motors. In India, practically all licence produced electric motors are for the local market. In China, their factories could OEM-produce electric motors for global export for so many brands, like: Siemens, ABB, Leroy-Somer, etc.
India's current ruling party is quite justifiably steering the nation against China. But their calculus is very similar to that of Vietnam.

Using the Chinese threat and the promise of an alternative or counterbalance, they are trying to woo the powers that be of the west. What they intend to do is to gain economic prosperity.

Ultimately, I think India got its method right, but the timing and luck is against it - it's too late and too unfortunate. India has failed to prepare itself to be a good place for new Factories and industry.
Well I don't think India's anti-China is justified or done correctly.

First of all, India's justification for its anti-China campaign is based primarily on jealousy. They have a goal to bring China down and then take their place.

Vietnam, who don't like China too, nevertheless concentrated on growing its economy. Vietnam never attempted to stoke some separatism in Guangxi. The most it tries to do is to play some great game in Indochina. But India is not only pushing around in South Asia. It is also playing the Tibet card in China. India doesn't respect China's territorial integrity. For obviously nefarious reasons.

Second India never got its seduction of the west correct. India's market have been opened to the west long before China. They had a great head start. So it's not the timing. They had plenty of time ahead of China. But never once did they did any serious development in human capital, ease of doing business, and infrastructure. Nothing of the sort like the Asian tigers, China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. The Modi's Make in India campaign is a shameful showcase of this failure.

This Indian dream to replace China at China's expense is ultimately the one of the true cause of its failure to be next big thing. Instead of looking inwards, India spent too much effort looking and envying China. When China wanted to help India, India rejected it, and ganged up with the west on China. How moronic.
 

weig2000

Captain
The last few pages is about Caste System and China's interest in exporting revolution. Realistically, I think many biased for China is overrating China's will, capabilities and misunderstanding the intentions.

Today's China is absolutely focused on economic and comprehensive national development wherever it is possible. Except for some issues that are core national interest - Unification of China, territorial integrity and historical vengeance - China won't be flexing much and interfering in other's business.

This applies to India - China relationship too. China wants territorial integrity when it deals with India. Beyond that it's just economics and the big Indian market. China won't be interested in spending yuans on Caste Systems, Naxal movements or regime change in India (unless the Indian threat becomes that much grave).

A few pages of pseudo-scholarly discussions on Indian culture and society. LOL

Chinese in general don't hate India - perhaps frustrated and amused at times - largely because India is pretty far from China and Chinese heartland, geographically, psychologically, and development-wise. Chinese don't understand why Indian are not as pragmatic and money-loving as they're. Some of them are so frustrated that they want to change India to be more secular by designing some revolution for India!
 

Sardaukar20

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What happened here? India was making so much noise about this for the last few days. Did they blink under some kind of pressure from China?

Maybe they did. As the Chinese FM is giving them a polite 'warning':

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For me, India playing the Tibet card should have been the red line. Indian meddling into Taiwan is stepping over that red line and then walking deep into China's no-go zone. I would actually like to see the Indian govt try and play this Taiwan game. China still hasn't officially punished India over its Tibet game. So India playing Taiwan should be able to spring China into action.
 
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