Ladakh Flash Point

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
1) Why does it always have to be teams? Why can't the USA/India/China get along?
Because the world's not a nice fuzzy yoga class like you wish. Outside of your rainbow-colored bubble, there is actually an enormous global power struggle.
The Chinese foreign ministry has the same position as me, and so does Xi Jinping!
Really? The Chinese foreign ministry and Xi Jinping said it was China's fault?? LOL Show me where they said that.
So don't say just because I don't want bad relations that I dribble in the other direction.
Sorry, I meant spinelessly and delusionally in the wrong direction.

The rest of your post was clearly not meant for me.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
1) Why does it always have to be teams? Why can't the USA/India/China get along? The Chinese foreign ministry has the same position as me, and so does Xi Jinping! So don't say just because I don't want bad relations that I dribble in the other direction.

2) You said: "Again if the US were in China's position they would have "liberated" New Delhi already and created millions of casualties."

Why can't you see this is objectively wrong? The US has never attacked another nuclear power.

3) You said: " Why can't Indians understand the perception of LAC differs and like mentioned so often on the internet by now, the Chinese have only gone up to the Chinese claimed lines and still backed off a kilometer at least. "

Well the solution to that would be to demarcate the LAC wouldn't it? But that's just what some Indian commentators propose yet the Chinese ambassador rejects.

Since 2 and 3 are relevant to me, I will respond to only these points.

2. The US have gone to war in the 20th century against over a dozen opponent nations and groups. They've never attacked a nuclear power so what? If it were China threatening them the same way India is to China, they would have attacked. Besides, the only reason you needed to include the "nuclear power" part is because you understand my point. Them not having attacked any nuclear powers directly in the past doesn't mean much does it? They probably would if their core interests and sovereignty is being undermined the same way China's is by India.

3. Wrong. Where has the Indian government proposed demarcating the LAC?? This has NEVER happened in history and it's been the Chinese side who have suggested this! China suggested this prior to the 1962 war and India rejected all Chinese offers to demarcate the borders bilaterally without outside interest getting involved and without British demarcated lines along the other border. Learn your history. Nehru rejected Chinese talks repeatedly while claiming "Hindi Chini bhai bhai". Absolute snake and British imperialist wannabes. This sort of thinking persists today.

If India is talking now it is because Chinese leaders have finally found their balls amidst all the wealth they've collected over the decades and have finally acted with some limited resolve. India is talking for de-escalation back to pre-April positions which they are in favour for because they have been slowly salami slicing again since 2017. So it isn't even like the Indians are willing to talk about settling the LAC. They still want either the entirety of no man's land or at the very least a return to positions where they are inside Chinese claimed borderlines. This is a non-solution.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Blame the British, Indians and Chinese were fine for thousands of years

It’s India’s fault for not settling Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh when it was up for exchange. Now Indians risk losing much more.

I guarantee you China won’t just stop after grabbing all the disputed lands. A high risk war needs high rewards.

China needs a corridor along the base of the himalayas to Pakistan.

But this isn't a high risk war and there hasn't been a war. I also doubt China will do that even after a war. Chinese leaders are all about presenting a facade of being 大方 even after winning a costly war, Chinese will be returning land up to Chinese claims.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
As far as Satellite image show, there is no Indian structure across China's claim line though. There is something more going on.

I think he was referring to pictures (sat or HALE drone) where there were some structures and I recall helicopter landing sites built by India that went up to the Chinese claimed lands. Of course this is assuming those are real images and actually Indian constructions but the geographic landmarks can be identified in a few of those and are sites or very close to the claimed confrontation sites. One being the river bank which is commonly shown with structures being mounted, taken away, remounted, and the site flooded. Anyway the Chinese claims are Indian structures were slowly built up for a few years that come right up on the Chinese claimed borderlines and Indian patrols going beyond these points up to Indian claimed borderlines. How true these statements actually are is unknown though.

I'm curious what you reckon is part of the "more going on". My personal line of thinking is based on the assumption that the CCP has very little if anything to gain from provoking India without any reason and potentially gathering much unwanted negative attention. The likely reasons for action here like we've seen in recent months is purely in response to either perceived or actual Indian advances or some sort of greater geopolitical threat to more long term strategic planning that involve CPEC and BRI. This may be wrong but honestly the other speculations don't pass the smell test. You can throw in article 370 and Bhutan Doklam road building issues in on top to compound the perception of Hindutva government aggression/resolve in confronting and actively working against China's interests.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
But this isn't a high risk war and there hasn't been a war. I also doubt China will do that even after a war. Chinese leaders are all about presenting a facade of being 大方 even after winning a costly war, Chinese will be returning land up to Chinese claims.
I don't see how it would be in the Chinese interest to withdraw from the currently occupied territories unless there is a major Indian concession. There would be considerable political and strategic value lost if a withdrawal without a deal takes place ... much like India losing face following its withdrawal from Doklam in 2017. China knows it can hold on to these territories to extract concessions from India while at the same time not going to war. The Chinese government knows the Indians are very afraid of war (even Indian sources say war is not an option) and hence can apply quite a bit of pressure here.

In the event of a war, you are correct the Chinese would be returning land up to the Chinese claims. That means China will occupy Arunachal Pradesh (aka South Tibet), Sikkim, and eastern Ladakh.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't see how it would be in the Chinese interest to withdraw from the currently occupied territories unless there is a major Indian concession. There would be considerable political and strategic value lost if a withdrawal without a deal takes place ... much like India losing face following its withdrawal from Doklam in 2017. China knows it can hold on to these territories to extract concessions from India while at the same time not going to war. The Chinese government knows the Indians are very afraid of war (even Indian sources say war is not an option) and hence can apply quite a bit of pressure here.

In the event of a war, you are correct the Chinese would be returning land up to the Chinese claims. That means China will occupy Arunachal Pradesh (aka South Tibet), Sikkim, and eastern Ladakh.

The actual outcome of the Doklam confrontation is confusing and full of propaganda and BS noise. I think China conceded because there wasn't any real confrontation and China's intentions to build roads through a small part disputed with Bhutan had plenty of alternatives. It wasn't worth any drama over and since India butted in between the Bhutan China bilateral talks where China wanted the stretch of land where they intended to build the road in exchange for another piece of land Bhutan claimed, the whole bilateral agreement fell apart as India took it upon itself to disrupt China's plans there and "negotiate on behalf of Bhutan".

I think all that "confrontation" resulted in was CCP's realisation of India's line of thinking and plan of action. Nothing more and the CCP simply couldn't get Bhutan to talk once the Indians took over and so decided to build the road through another section? No harm no foul but much learned. Certainly did play a role in the decision making and planning since then and obviously the confrontations in 2020.

I doubt there will be a war unless India decides to attack first and I doubt the Indians would attack unless the PLA truly go into actual Indian land or if the US starts a war with China, the Indians will heap in.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
As far as Satellite image show, there is no Indian structure across China's claim line though. There is something more going on.

The Chinese would not demand the Indians to destroy bunkers on undisputed Indian territory, nor would India agree to such demands if made.

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Besides, note that I said infrastructure, not fortifications. You need infrastructure like roads and bridges to allow you to bring in material and equipment to build fortifications. That’s what China was worried Indian infrastructure building in disputed territory was building up towards, and why they were so firm to stop it.

They were originally just doing so via standard methods of building OPs to monitor Indian building activity and doing show the flag patrols, but once the Indians escalated things to overt violence with their ambush on the PLA communications officer sent in to speak to them, the gloves would have come off.

The timing of these latest Indian probes was also not accidental, as it was clear many in the Indian leadership was buying extremist fringe western propaganda about how badly China was supposed to have been hit by COVID19 with millions of deaths covered up.

As such a massively powerful, to the point of excessive, military show of force was seen as necessary in response.

Remember that China would have far better and more detailed intel on the motivations and beliefs of Indian leaders, and I think that if it is pretty clear to us that they are just desperately waiting for a moment of weakness and/or calamity on China’s part for them to launch an attack, then China’s leadership would also been well aware.

With Trump seeking to make waves in the east to distract from his own COVID19 calamity and to score points to boost his flagging election hopes, I think China also saw the dangers of those two sides launching a two front war against China, so China decided to show Indian leaders the size of the hammer it would drop on them if provoked sufficiently, hence the calling up of troops from Wuhan to show that the PLA is not affected even in China’s worst hit outbreak epicentre. That both dispelled Indian hopes of a PLA hollowed out by COVID19, while also showing them the world of pain they will bring down on their heads if they are stupid enough to press China too far.

Had the Indians blundered into a war with China, I think China would have gone to town especially hard on them.

Their own deservedness of such an almighty arse whooping aside, there would also be a massive element of kill the chicken to warn the monkey to it. Trump is a natural bully who will want to exploit anyone else’s weakness for personal gain, but is afraid of those who are willing and able to stand up for themselves. You can easily see this side of his character on full display with the contrasting ways he treats the enemies like Putin and Kim against Allies like Trudeau.

As such, Chinese goals in any war with India would actually primarily be to drop the hammer on India so hard that Trump tuck tail and runs in the East rather than piling in himself.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
OFF TOPIC:

I believe your English is excellent but how come you use the word "boarder" instead of "border"? I have seen multiple times and can't help to point it out. What's your native language? Does "boarder" means border in your native language?

Upon checking Google Translate I found:

Silly mistake. :p
 
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