Ladakh Flash Point

localizer said:

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Over at Indian forum

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Given the Indians are still talking about an event that happened literally two months ago, you can tell how insecure they are about their own massive casualties and are still desperately trying to conjure up delusional fairy tales few of them truly believe. If the Indian Army heeds these posters advice and goes for Galwan 2.0, instead of 20 to 50 Indian deaths, there will likely be 200 to 500 deaths. This is just like a trashtalker in street basketball getting absolutely slapped in a 1v1 and demanding an immediate rematch. Pathetic.

ougoah said:

What scenario in an India vs China fight in Ladakh leads to India gaining any upper hand and with what? Everything India has China has much better and more of. China has plenty of stuff India doesn't have e.g. cruise missiles, HALE/MALE UAVs, UCAVs, attack helicopters (sorry 4 or 5 Dhruv based gunships are nothing), light tanks, heavy long range artillery + MLRS (India importing Excalibur for the few 155mm they operate and one MLRS with half decent range), stealth fighters, bombers, better ATGMs, better satellites and ASAT, medium and long range air defence more modern than 1980s tech. Where is the fight? It's shooting fish in a barrel like the Americans would brag about when discussing hypothetical war between the US and China in the 90s.

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IMO any land campaign will be preceded by an air campaign unlike 1962. The question is how would the Chinese conduct one. Have you run the numbers on how many Indian airbases you would need to take out and how many PGMs would be required? According to unnamed Indian analyst, the Chinese would need to expend 220 ballistic missiles to keep an Indian airbase close for 24 hours. They reckon China will run out of ballistic missiles by the third day.


I think their estimate is a bit high. I did some research and I reckon it will require approximately about a third of that estimate but nevertheless the Chinese will still run out by the end of the week. The Indians have the advantage of less airbases to take out but similarly they will run out of long range stand off missiles probably a bit quicker due to their more limited inventory of Brahmos, Scalp and Spice 1000/2000. The Chinese is naturally more at risk because of lack of mutually supporting airbases. Its airborne planes are more vulnerable at risk of crash landing if accessing within fuel range alternate airbase become a problem.

Once those long range standoff weapons become depleted on both sides, the tougher fight takes place using LGBs but delivery will be much more risky due to shorter range and SAM becomes a real issue. What SEAD/DEAD platforms supported by standoff jammers can the Chinese deploy? DEAD mission is an extremely difficult task to execute because of existing RWR emitter location inaccuracy. Most RWRs out there have an angular accuracy error of within 4 to 5 degrees. The more advanced RWR has about 1 degree or a fraction of it. Ar a standoff range of 100 kms with a 5 degree accuracy will generate a miss distance of 8.72 km. You can reduce the miss distance by half by closing to 50 kms. Such type of missions will require ECM support. What ECM platform can the Chinese deploy for such a task? In such a situation both sides will take losses. How will the Chinese public handle such losses? The same question can be asked of the Indians.

It's interesting how @Brumby thinks there'll be an Indian air force left standing after China's initial wave of missile strikes. Like China will use its missiles to put potholes in runways.

@Brumby what makes you think China would be using ballistic precision strike missiles only?

I don't find it credible that it would take anywhere near 220 missiles of any size to close down a base for 24 hours. Even 1 missile hitting the takeoff tarmac or hangars would not be trivial to repair. 1/3rd of that number sounds more reasonable but still high.

70 missiles would reduce most of the base to rubble. Given it takes an advanced economy a week to build a hospital on clean ground, I find it doubtful that a third world country can rebuild a much larger sized airport from bombed out debris within only 24 hours. It could be repaired in 1 week possibly, at reduced function using improvised hangars, tarmac etc.

Most of those 70 munitions would be delivered by MLRS and air to ground missiles. Ballistic missile is only needed for faraway, morale important targets, such as india's sole aircraft carrier or perhaps an airfield with a high ranking commander on it.

Brumby said:

....to keep an Indian airbase close for 24 hours.

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That only matters if you hit the runways but miss the assets. If you can destroy assets in hangers/tarmac, then they have to move entire squadrons around to get that base back up. These replacements could be from different theater commands, and that isn't a smooth process, especially for a notoriously unsmooth organization like the Indian military/bureaucracy.

So IMO, the real question is, what is the probability that the PLAAF can take out most IAF targets in the open and hardened shelters with its stand-off inventory? This is mostly a task for cruise missiles, if they have penetrators or are accurate enough to fly inside the hangor to detonate. Tomahawks could pull stunts like this in 1991. But this also depends on the availability of hardened shelters for the relevant IAF bases. The Rafales are going to be stationed at Ambala, I think, which does have hardened shelters. But how many assets can the IAF protect by parking them in hardened shelters in this theater? How many of its MKIs will be exposed on the tarmac? Also, the other thing cruise missiles can do is attack targets of opportunity out in the open, this is where 'AI' becomes relevant. If they spot a high value asset, like an AWACS parked on the tarmac, they can prioritize it automatically.

DEAD mission is an extremely difficult task to execute because of existing RWR emitter location inaccuracy.

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The AI solution also ties into the SEAD/DEAD issue. We need to remember that in our new (but completely untested) 21st century SEAD/DEAD paradigm, ECM isn't supposed to matter that much anymore. Because if you have an AI enabled drone/missile swarm, then you've actually nullified the opponent's ECM capabilities, because you're no longer dependent on long range network communications anymore.

According to this new paradigm, all you really need to know is the general area where the opponent has deployed their SAM assets, and then you just launch your 'AI' drone swarm in its general direction, and let it do its thing autonomously. If your AI swarm loses contact with the control node due to ECM, that's not supposed to be a problem anymore.

This is a key 21st century capability, which is beyond the 'Network Centric Warfare' paradigm of the late 20th century. Both China and Russia began developing this paradigm as a direct response to 1991. It remains to be seen how they've progressed in this arena. AFAIK, US intel reports generally indicate (and also Praveen Sawhney has commented on this a lot) that the Chinese are advanced in this arena. If it works, it will revolutionize warfare just as much as 1991 did.

ougoah said:

Frankly the CCP is just far too nice in not absolutely wrecking these morons while the rest of the world couldn't care less about India. Despite being constantly attacked by India and Indians in the press, the CCP is a gracious winner and the Indians are some really poor losers. You don't hear Chinese making excuses and twisting facts anywhere near the level these Modi bhakts do. They're really a source of shame and embarrassment to the level headed and reasonable Indians. If it were the US empire in place of China's here, they would have agent orange bombed most of India's jungles, massacred entire cities worse than the British and Churchill's forces, raped their way through to New Delhi and burned it down by now. Then they would have demanded reparations for "starting" the war and installed a US friendly government.

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If CCP and China does that, then all the hate towards it is totally justified and it wouldn't be much better than any other colonial power of the past. Nationalist Indians can talk all the refuse they want, it may give them some courage, that's about it, in the end all of it just blinds them from and fixing real problems. The "courage" may bite them in the rear too, leading them to actually attack thinking glorious victory awaits, giving China all the justification it needs to finally take the gloves off. In all honesty India and China should be working together in the region, but instead it's playing this antagonistic approach, since before modern times there was no animosity and now there's tons of animosity coming from 1 direction.
I assume there's a lot to unpack as to why this is, but idk if it can be discussed on this forum. Stuff that delves into psychology of conquered people's.

localizer said:

View attachment 62319

Over at Indian forum

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Wow, their forum allows them to call Chinese, "Chink

Figaro said:

Given the Indians are still talking about an event that happened literally two months ago, you can tell how insecure they are about their own massive casualties and are still desperately trying to conjure up delusional fairy tales few of them truly believe. If the Indian Army heeds these posters advice and goes for Galwan 2.0, instead of 20 to 50 Indian deaths, there will likely be 200 to 500 deaths. This is just like a trashtalker in street basketball getting absolutely slapped in a 1v1 and demanding an immediate rematch. Pathetic.

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They've moved on, they're now laughing at people dying in China's flooding. Such amazing people these Indian nationalists, scum of the earth.

Brumby said:

IMO any land campaign will be preceded by an air campaign unlike 1962. The question is how would the Chinese conduct one. Have you run the numbers on how many Indian airbases you would need to take out and how many PGMs would be required? According to unnamed Indian analyst, the Chinese would need to expend 220 ballistic missiles to keep an Indian airbase close for 24 hours. They reckon China will run out of ballistic missiles by the third day.

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I think their estimate is a bit high. I did some research and I reckon it will require approximately about a third of that estimate but nevertheless the Chinese will still run out by the end of the week. The Indians have the advantage of less airbases to take out but similarly they will run out of long range stand off missiles probably a bit quicker due to their more limited inventory of Brahmos, Scalp and Spice 1000/2000. The Chinese is naturally more at risk because of lack of mutually supporting airbases. Its airborne planes are more vulnerable at risk of crash landing if accessing within fuel range alternate airbase become a problem.
View attachment 62323
Once those long range standoff weapons become depleted on both sides, the tougher fight takes place using LGBs but delivery will be much more risky due to shorter range and SAM becomes a real issue. What SEAD/DEAD platforms supported by standoff jammers can the Chinese deploy? DEAD mission is an extremely difficult task to execute because of existing RWR emitter location inaccuracy. Most RWRs out there have an angular accuracy error of within 4 to 5 degrees. The more advanced RWR has about 1 degree or a fraction of it. Ar a standoff range of 100 kms with a 5 degree accuracy will generate a miss distance of 8.72 km. You can reduce the miss distance by half by closing to 50 kms. Such type of missions will require ECM support. What ECM platform can the Chinese deploy for such a task? In such a situation both sides will take losses. How will the Chinese public handle such losses? The same question can be asked of the Indians.

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I would imagine the estimates of 220 BMs/day for each airfield a bit high as well. Unnamed Indian "analysts" also claim they shot down an F-16 in 2019 and claim PLA suffered around 100 deaths in their clash with IA. I think they underestimate the accuracy, reliability, and warhead sizes of Chinese ballistic missiles. In any case, the IAF airfields closer to PLA artillery will not be targeted by ballistic missiles. They're also ignoring the numerous types of land and air launched cruise missiles the PLA can send as well. The airfields need only be knocked out for a day for PLA to advance with air defence deep enough and PLAAF to hold superiority for better artillery positions and H-6 and JH-7 strikes. India has no hope of pushing into Tibet while pushing deeper into India to keep those airfields shut may be a challenge for China.

India is assuming they can and will immediately repair airfields back to operating condition and China needs to continue sending ballistic missiles to keep them shut. This just isn't realistic. The Indians will require days to repair their airfields and China can use cheap artillery for some of them, cruise missiles and guided ordinance for others. Ballistic missiles only need to open the door. During this time IA will be set upon by the PLA and PLAAF. IAF has maybe one wave before they would need to bring fighters from other regions and they don't have enough tankers when those regional airfields are gone.

India's successful use of scalp brahmos and bombs will only eventuate if they are contesting air superiority or achieve it. It'll be hard making use of those if PLAAF hold air superiority. The few that slip through have to get past HQ-9s and HQ-16s and who knows what else before they may find a few targets. The PLAAF have their own supersonic air to ground missiles, stand off ordinance, and guided bombs. In the balance, the IAF probably will not get to enjoy their numerical advantage for long and it will certainly not cost the PLA over 200 ballistic missiles per day for each IAF airfield. The IA does not have equivalent air defences and the IA will probably be equally if not more poorly supported than the PLA which is already much better equipped.

ougoah said:

The Indians are the worst "bad losers". When other's lose, they bite their tongue and get on with it. When Indians lose, they need to invent fiction like "Sir but F-16 was also shot down by us! so it is very even and we are very strong!" and when PLA turned IA into mince meat, they needed to also invent "but sir vee khilled saww meni Chinki barstirds dooooo!" "Vee khilled tvendi of... no! fivdy! no! vun hunded dead PLA! JAAAAI!!!!!!!!!"

When Chinese won 1962, there was no real celebration and even if social media and the like existed back then, you can bet Chinese wouldn't have been gloating. China and CCP totally quiet after smashing the IA a few months ago. India celebrates everything. They celebrated the return of their shot down and captured pilot like it was a huge victory. They celebrate every single time the PLA move a few tents around. They celebrate building a destroyer hull before the ship even reaches trials, before the superstructures even get assembled! lol you cannot find a greater group of losers.

India is like that mentally stunted teenager forever stuck in that hormonal era with no real intellect or ability.

BTW the Indians over at those forums are pissed because some of them saw the brains leaking out of one of their former Jai Hind morons. At the hands of the PLA too and leaked by the PLA. That's why they're demanding visual material of Chinese soldiers getting "blown apart". It all wrecked their ego so much and the same evil they wish upon others for the last few decades ended up hammering them.

See the difference? Chinese and Koreans were victims of some of history's worst military atrocities. Rather than demanding the same evils to be performed on the Japanese, the demands are for recognition of crimes and a formal sincere apology and removal of shrines to war criminals. Indians finance about a dozen terror groups against Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka and have the nerve to call themselves victims of terror. Yeah terror you started and terror you're complicit it! If they could, these Jai Hinds would be committing atrocities worse than the Japanese on China but they're unable to and so reduce themselves to only committing these atrocities on the Kashmiris. They wetdream about these sorts of things and Hindus believe in Karma. I guess this is why Hindus live in Earth's most disgusting slum. It is their karma and the consequence of their karma.

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They think this is acceptable because the countries they idolize do this. USA and UK committed many horrible crimes across the world, but still talk like they are saviors of humanity and tries to constantly remind the world of this. The US and UK has therefore given little exposure to India, it kinda reminds it of itself mask off without pretentious notions of moral integrity and without any real world power, just hate and needing to murder other peoples in order to keep their own people from doing it among themselves but no ability to do so.

Maxef208 said:

Wow, their forum allows them to call Chinese, "Chink

They've moved on, they're now laughing at people dying in China's flooding. Such amazing people these Indian nationalists, scum of the earth.

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I've been reading their forums and their hilarious delusions since 2009 and they've been calling Chinese chinks and gooks back then already. It's just intensified.

Indians been laughing at Chinese losses and misery since the turn of the century. China doesn't pay attention to backwater India much to the frustration of Indians. Indians laughed at Pakistan Airline's loss and the tragedy too. They are really lowly "people". Hence why they are where they are.