Patrolling alone does not establish De facto control. In order to establish control, patrols have to be paired with infrastructure or permanent constructions such as camps. In terms of infrastructure, China definitely had the advantage over the past few decades, and still does, though to a lesser extent.
That is very much up for debate. China clearly think Indian presence and patrolling
could result in de facto control. At least something they don't even want to risk and take chances on.
Infrastructure building within the remaining 20% dispute was not done at all until the Chinese road from F8 to F5 area. This was unprecedented and India responded fairly with building inside it as well. I would say both sides have similar advantage if anything India probably has a slight advantage just because infrastructure building with camps and roads and bridges is easy stuff and Indian population centres and construction industry is located much closer to this 20%.
While it does have some debateable claims, the article I posted earlier today made a good point that prior to 2020 India had little permanent presence such as infrastructure and camps along the lac. Nos that has changed, and India has camps and infra such as roads and bridges in areas along the la c that were previously unoccupied, including within the disputed areas. Both sides agreed not to patrol the buffer zones, but as has been mentioned before those only constitute a relatively small part of the disputed areas.
Well any presence is regarded as a threat by China right. Just like Chinese presence within 20% is regarded as a threat by India. If both sides were fine with temporary positions held within this 20%, they wouldn't have worked on mutual disengagements of troops and forced the other to negotiate on stuff they want in return for stuff the other wants.
Buffer right now does only constitute a part of the 20% remaining dispute. I wouldn't call it a small part since we don't know the specifics. It would be small parts which is just the Pangong Fingers, Galwan parts, and Gogra, Hot springs etc, making up much less than 50% of the 20% but who knows. For now we get that China is trying to get India to formally agree on total buffer. This hasn't happened yet and remains to be seen whether India would ever even agree to it. China is out of leverage it seems. It is playing Bhutan talks and reminding India that it
can open up Tawang front (but hasn't and probably has no real desire to) in an effort to get Indians to sign total buffer, thereby totally sealing off Aksai Chin from Indian access. If China uses force to achieve this, buffer agreements it secured from India will break down and allow Indians loose again.
It is a stalemate situation basically BUT at least a stable situation and one where Indians are not patrolling many parts of the 20% and certainly not touching Aksai Chin. It now also is such that both sides don't meet for clashes. China wants this western front to be stable and calm. You and I both know China's real intentions and focuses on military matters are solely about countering US aggression and ensuring Taiwan doesn't declare independence because if Taiwan does declare independence, China basically has to move on its word to reunify with force. It doesn't want to risk that and it doesn't want to destroy the island in that process. China's only real security concern is over any potential war it would be forced into if Taiwan declares independence from mainland and the US involvement if any. These are where its genuine efforts and attention are. Western front with India is a nuisance but still one of sovereignty, hence action. China didn't want to be bothered there and doesn't want to be bothered there. Modi's India has been talking about taking over Aksai Chin and Hindu Rashtras and Mother India etc etc for years. Paying with blood to reunify india and so on with those hindutva narratives. Modi is also ruling a country that is a total failure.
Every metric shows India is incompetent and a failure of a country. People forced to walk 1000s of kilometers on foot with no public transport support. No social services and security. Starvation, poverty, lack of sanitation, lack of improved water the list is endless. Modi is the one that wanted to play up narratives and chauvinism for unity and pride. He also wanted to distract from his screw ups.
India since 2018 has been falling apart. Student protests across the country with journalists jailed and killed along with protestors killed. Growing wealth inequality that eventually manifested into farmer protests as well. Then you have the Hindu vs Muslim divisions and small separatist groups and Communist groups too which the ruling elites and social elites consider threats to their power, wealth, and status. Whatever though, all of those are India's own problems to confront and resolve themselves how they see fit. All I'm saying is Modi was trying to govern a mess of a country and his other men have been talking about "retaking" Indian land with Indian blood.
India was the one who thought it a good idea to take some land in Ladakh while they thought China was going to be overrun by a pandemic and distracted to respond to India in Jan 2020. India was also the one who unilaterally revoked Article 370. It is the actor and initiator of destabilisation. China only wants this boring front with unstable losers to be calm and no dramas while it focuses on development. China does not want war because war does not pay unless you are the USA where you can print money at will and tell everyone how much of their stuff the paper is worth. No other country benefits from war.
