Ladakh Flash Point

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ougoah

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Bit of a weird article (coming from India so actually probably not) when it says they thank Xi Jinping for the "misadventure" of "attacking India" (paraphrasing the insinuation). This is laughable. China did not attack. India attacked in the form of increased patrols and presence to which China responded disproportionately and in a manner that the Indians didn't expect. The Chinese side won the conflict and confrontation (proven and explained in detail with evidence too) and then both sides managed agreements which China demanded (being the winner of confrontations) out of India.

We know that PLA took over disputed lands which India tried to counter but were unable to and resulted in the deaths of four PLA soldiers and at least 20 Indian soldiers. It resulted in 0 PLA captured by India and over 60 Indians captured by PLA (all of this actually evidenced, proven and said as truth by both sides or tacitly acknowledged as truth officially by one or both sides... in contrast to Indian method of pulling debunked lies out of their asses just in attempts to look good... lol India). If China wanted to attack to gain control, they could have and already achieved it. They demanded concessions out of india which India agreed to, all in exchange for PLA withdrawal from the forward positioned they captured. Again if the mission was to capture to control, then why would PLA even talk with Indian side?

So there's the "misadventure" part debunked. Indians went on a misadventure, got their asses kicked by the Chinese and now talking talking talking on their media to soothe bhakt egos and secure Modi's head.

As for "all political parties are convinced of our ability"... well my friend, India proved they have less ability than we assumed they had. They were defeated despite having numerical advantage. And none of this was mechanised warfare.

If we want to talk about mechanised warfare. India's military is less sophisticated than Pakistan's but simply 10 times larger in size overall. Compared to China's military size, India's is smaller, incredibly less modern and well equipped and likely much poorer trained as poorly trained as China's can be considered and both are equally inexperienced. India's advantage on Ladakh however is the amount of forces they can bring to this region compared to China. This more or less offsets China's technological advantage over India unless China uses asymmetric means to counter India's numerical advantage.
 

ougoah

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India now is trying to play propaganda with total self delusion projects. Self delusion is how India's democracy operates to engineer social acceptance and support for certain narratives and political parties.

Notice all the Tawang propaganda coming from India. "We are holding strong" "we are not letting the Chinese attack" "the Chinese cannot attack because we are strong" etc etc.

This is to make it seem like Modi is doing a great job even if this is all null. China hasn't invaded or attacked or moved to capture land around Tawang that is claimed. China hasn't/isn't not because India is holding strong or whatever but because it hasn't opened that front up at all yet except in suggestion. New PLA patrol happened and talks with Bhutan. These two are being suggested as the stick option for Modi with the core issue being Aksai Chin and the remaining standoff (non-buffer areas) and the negotiations on that issue.

The threat of resolving Doklam interests with bilateral talks with Bhutan and the threat of increasing patrols near Tawang leading to escalations and stand off there is being used as leverage for the core interest. Why? Because as I said in the past, China is out of leverage with PLA captured positions. Those were exchanged for buffer zone agreements. If China uses PLA to capture, those buffers break down and India is loose to resume patrols and whatnot. Something China certainly does not want as it finally half got the genie back in the bottle there.

To get the genie sealed in the bottle, China needs to secure a total buffer at Aksai Chin and resolve that last dispute if ever, way down the future. For now, it cannot afford to allow India direct adjacency to Aksai Chin. Playing up Arunachal Pradesh tensions and Bhutan concerns is one way to make things hard for Modi, while it appears the photos and videos of Galwan Indian captives released was just to let India know it shouldn't be making things up with PLA captives in Tawang. Look how quickly Indian government came out to correct Indian media lies about PLA captives in Tawang as soon as China released those photos. India literally admitted their media (probably requested by their gov) lied about Indians capturing PLA soldiers.

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I mean it's not hard to see through India's bullshit. You're holding strong in Tawang because China hasn't attacked it. China hasn't attacked it because this isn't something China should be doing regardless or something China truly even wants to do. It isn't part of its strategic goal at all but part of its strategic calculus. The whole purpose of it is the threat of opening up fronts and nightmares for Modi. The core interest was and is Aksai Chin and the surrounds in Ladakh. Getting Indian soldiers off the remaining standoff points. Using Bhutan talks, suggestions of attacking Tawang etc as the new leverage. If China wanted to go to war over Tawang, it would have simply done so. This isn't something that has any value to China at all and this action isn't wise or a proper use of resources in my opinion.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

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India now is trying to play propaganda with total self delusion projects. Self delusion is how India's democracy operates to engineer social acceptance and support for certain narratives and political parties.

Notice all the Tawang propaganda coming from India. "We are holding strong" "we are not letting the Chinese attack" "the Chinese cannot attack because we are strong" etc etc.

This is to make it seem like Modi is doing a great job even if this is all null. China hasn't invaded or attacked or moved to capture land around Tawang that is claimed. China hasn't/isn't not because India is holding strong or whatever but because it hasn't opened that front up at all yet except in suggestion. New PLA patrol happened and talks with Bhutan. These two are being suggested as the stick option for Modi with the core issue being Aksai Chin and the remaining standoff (non-buffer areas) and the negotiations on that issue.

The threat of resolving Doklam interests with bilateral talks with Bhutan and the threat of increasing patrols near Tawang leading to escalations and stand off there is being used as leverage for the core interest. Why? Because as I said in the past, China is out of leverage with PLA captured positions. Those were exchanged for buffer zone agreements. If China uses PLA to capture, those buffers break down and India is loose to resume patrols and whatnot. Something China certainly does not want as it finally half got the genie back in the bottle there.

To get the genie sealed in the bottle, China needs to secure a total buffer at Aksai Chin and resolve that last dispute if ever, way down the future. For now, it cannot afford to allow India direct adjacency to Aksai Chin. Playing up Arunachal Pradesh tensions and Bhutan concerns is one way to make things hard for Modi, while it appears the photos and videos of Galwan Indian captives released was just to let India know it shouldn't be making things up with PLA captives in Tawang. Look how quickly Indian government came out to correct Indian media lies about PLA captives in Tawang as soon as China released those photos. India literally admitted their media (probably requested by their gov) lied about Indians capturing PLA soldiers.

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I mean it's not hard to see through India's bullshit. You're holding strong in Tawang because China hasn't attacked it. China hasn't attacked it because this isn't something China should be doing regardless or something China truly even wants to do. It isn't part of its strategic goal at all but part of its strategic calculus. The whole purpose of it is the threat of opening up fronts and nightmares for Modi. The core interest was and is Aksai Chin and the surrounds in Ladakh. Getting Indian soldiers off the remaining standoff points. Using Bhutan talks, suggestions of attacking Tawang etc as the new leverage. If China wanted to go to war over Tawang, it would have simply done so. This isn't something that has any value to China at all and this action isn't wise or a proper use of resources in my opinion.
Literal Homer Simpson logic.

 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
India now is trying to play propaganda with total self delusion projects. Self delusion is how India's democracy operates to engineer social acceptance and support for certain narratives and political parties.

Notice all the Tawang propaganda coming from India. "We are holding strong" "we are not letting the Chinese attack" "the Chinese cannot attack because we are strong" etc etc.

This is to make it seem like Modi is doing a great job even if this is all null. China hasn't invaded or attacked or moved to capture land around Tawang that is claimed. China hasn't/isn't not because India is holding strong or whatever but because it hasn't opened that front up at all yet except in suggestion. New PLA patrol happened and talks with Bhutan. These two are being suggested as the stick option for Modi with the core issue being Aksai Chin and the remaining standoff (non-buffer areas) and the negotiations on that issue.

The threat of resolving Doklam interests with bilateral talks with Bhutan and the threat of increasing patrols near Tawang leading to escalations and stand off there is being used as leverage for the core interest. Why? Because as I said in the past, China is out of leverage with PLA captured positions. Those were exchanged for buffer zone agreements. If China uses PLA to capture, those buffers break down and India is loose to resume patrols and whatnot. Something China certainly does not want as it finally half got the genie back in the bottle there.

To get the genie sealed in the bottle, China needs to secure a total buffer at Aksai Chin and resolve that last dispute if ever, way down the future. For now, it cannot afford to allow India direct adjacency to Aksai Chin. Playing up Arunachal Pradesh tensions and Bhutan concerns is one way to make things hard for Modi, while it appears the photos and videos of Galwan Indian captives released was just to let India know it shouldn't be making things up with PLA captives in Tawang. Look how quickly Indian government came out to correct Indian media lies about PLA captives in Tawang as soon as China released those photos. India literally admitted their media (probably requested by their gov) lied about Indians capturing PLA soldiers.

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I mean it's not hard to see through India's bullshit. You're holding strong in Tawang because China hasn't attacked it. China hasn't attacked it because this isn't something China should be doing regardless or something China truly even wants to do. It isn't part of its strategic goal at all but part of its strategic calculus. The whole purpose of it is the threat of opening up fronts and nightmares for Modi. The core interest was and is Aksai Chin and the surrounds in Ladakh. Getting Indian soldiers off the remaining standoff points. Using Bhutan talks, suggestions of attacking Tawang etc as the new leverage. If China wanted to go to war over Tawang, it would have simply done so. This isn't something that has any value to China at all and this action isn't wise or a proper use of resources in my opinion.
To date, have the Indians released any evidence of an attack on Tawang?
 

Bellum_Romanum

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PLA has no hope against India. It is written in the stars...

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I was hoping that I was going to be proven incorrect from my biases and belief that going into that site wasn't going to be worth it and maybe just maybe reading some of the posts on that site will be an enlightening experience; an eye opener hoping to be informed even if I disagree with their ideas, logic, and rationale with respect to their views on China and the PLA.

But d..ng man, that forum could give anyone aneurysm from reading so much b.s. and fiction. The mere fact that they really do believe the nonsense and lies about China not to mention the conditioning and mentality that their time to shine a.k.a. superpower is fast approaching and China just want to stop them from stealing the limelight is interesting to put it mildly.
 

ougoah

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With much clearer hindsight after this Ladakh crisis, I've become more aware of how much we have (in this forum and of course the Indian side) been exaggerating the importance of this whole regional crisis. There is a lot of noise on this issue from India and Indian based english speaking sources, publications, and individuals. Beyond this, the west actually did not mention it much at all and don't seem to care much for it either AND neither have the Chinese even though they are 1 of 2 participants in this crisis.

I've noticed that it could simply be the case where China just wanted to stop India's increased presence within that 20% remaining dispute. Went in stopped it and if not for all the noise and gossip India has been producing on this topic, Chinese side would have left it all alone. India last month wanted to make fake news about how they captured 100 or 200 PLA soldiers on Tawang and so released the photos showing how badly beaten the Indians were during Galwan clash and the captives. This shut the Indians up and forced the Indian gov to issue official statements to deny and debunk Indian fake news in fear of further embarrassing material being released by China.

Now China does still have the problem of Indian soldiers still being present within some smaller sections of the 20% that has yet to be resolved. However it is entirely possible that the importance of this is much lower on the priority list for CPC than we assume here. Maybe the CPC is thinking okay the situation is mostly contained and controlled and de-escalated, chance for resource consuming war is lower and India is not threatening to take over the 20% or make patrols on Aksai Chin so that initial main threat is resolved unless India escalates which means we'd have to re-engage but if they don't, we got bigger matters to focus on such as ... progress and development.

The only "upset" to all this calming down in the last year was India's noise making and fake news. The talks reached equilibrium with China playing out all its leverage and bargaining power to secure signed buffer deals from India and the rest like I said could simply be acceptable. India was nearly taking over the 20% with de facto control in Jan 2020. Now it has some token temporary positions with most of it India agreeing not to patrol anymore. Threat on Aksai Chin reduced and PLA required to meet Indian patrols not needed.

China does its usual long game (like the salami slicing used in the past after 1962) where it holds talks with Bhutan on the Doklam issue and where it simply continues its claims on AP so long as India claims AC (this is the Tawang patrols form).
 

ougoah

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That website NFI is totally full fo cowshits and India deludes itself to the extent they believe the holy cowshits can cure covid for its populace as muted by Modi. Fools!

It is somewhat frustrating that Indians are that determined to be so engaged in self delusion and saying things like China owes everything to Japan and so on.

We should understand though that there is a severe cultural difference here between Indians and East Asians. Indians on DFI have admitted to each other that they will choose to only believe in the narratives that make them sound and look good. Narratives that make them feel better. This happens whenever some Indian DFI members expressed anger at their government at not releasing photos and videos that make them look good (because they don't have any in reality) and others come in to tell them to stop their "meltdown" and believe in the feel good stories they're spinning for each other. This is cultural.

Indian culture like many other parts of the world, have for a very long time been based on blind faith and the whole "just believe" concept. East Asian cultures have since the beginning of civilisation preferred confronting reality and not beating around the bush about uncomfortable and inconvenient stuff. After the enlightenment, European cultures were also extremely "realistic" rather than relying on blind faith. Of course all humans do carry superstition and blind faith to a certain degree and perhaps it's a good thing to be slightly faithful in terms of believing in greater power and greater purpose... certainly Chinese culture and people have always believed in greater power and greater purpose. Just not the rampant and insane depth of self delusion South Asian cultures seem to allow and encourage. East Asian cultures encourage still facing facts and doing work about it rather than denying facts that are uncomfortable and inconvenient.

The Indians simply feel threatened by China's progress as they incorrectly assume China's progress comes at their loss. 1 - because China is taking a larger slice of the finite pie and 2 - because it makes them look incompetent in comparison and that means people they worship would regard them as being inferior. This is their psychological fear of the whole thing and why PR "victories" and "wars of perception" are of utmost importance to Indians. They also think China would be an imperialist power similar to the way they suffered under the British and the Muslims when the entire subcontinent was dominated by those two groups in the past. In reality, all that India had to be taken from them have long been taken by the British and "in return" the Indians received British institutions and some infrastructure. China has no desire and will never have a desire to conquer India.

Indian chauvinists and bhakts have for about a decade at least been riding on waves of Hindutva brainwashing and any evidence that counters their narratives are frowned upon and talked away with incessant and ceaseless bullshitting and lies. That is to be expected. Their forums want to make up every pathetic excuse without ever considering reality for a second.

Continued self delusion is never going to win anything. This is why India's progress is snail's pace when they should have been rocketing ahead for the last 50 years like literally half of the countries in Asia. We have a lot of ground to catch up and potential to fill which is why growth and progress should have been the case for decades. Why is India the worst country in Asia and certainly among the worst performers globally? Yet receive the most international aid. It is this very denial of reality and preference for feel good narratives and lies.

Notice that India has dropped in average height for years now and moved towards much greater wealth disparity in GINI coefficient. Yet their wealthy elites have broken more records in wealth accumulation. Their entire system doesn't help their national situation either. India in the future will be a case study for economics students of what and why things go wrong and what not to do. We always look way back with greater clarity and honesty. Right now, it's a thought crime to associate China with anything neutral or positive in India and the West (for different reasons). In time, all will be clearer and the academics at least will be more honest and less self deluding.
 
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