Ladakh Flash Point

Overbom said:

I mean lets be real. Diplomacy must always be backed by military power. China could move more troups on its border, do more military exercises, invite some troops from Bhutan to participate or Bhutanese officials to observe etc. There are many ways to signal to another country your intentions and how strongly you feel about it.

But nevertheless, whats the worry? Bhutan is ultimately a small player/pawn (of India). If India annexed it, it would cause a gigantic backlash from its neighbours who will open their arms and literally beg for China to protect them. China would have a grand party with Indian influence evaporating overnight in all those countries.

India thinks that it can pressure its neighbors but if it crosses a line, everyone will bond together to stop them.

We can see that already, India's influence relative to China's is declining in all of its neighbors. Is it worth it risking Bhutan annexation for the whole region turning hostile to India..

Anyway, back on topic, this MoU sends another signal to the Indian negotiating team to hurry up and finally decide on what they want to with the Chinese. Will they accept the PLA's proposal or will they stay there

Click to expand...

siegecrossbow said:

India annexed Sikkim and nothing happened.

Click to expand...

siegecrossbow said:

India annexed Sikkim and nothing happened.

Click to expand...

1. At 11:35 minutes, Sawhney reveals that Pakistani Military officers, at the rank of Colonel and above, are now "part of" China's SSD (Strategic Support Division), which is the central C4I node of the Western Theater Command. This is very interesting (and surprising) news, because officially China and Pakistan do not have a "military alliance" like NATO, but in reality, you don't integrate foreign military officers into your Command and Control hub unless they are a military ally. From a strategic and operational perspective, this basically means there is a military alliance between China and Pakistan, even though it is not advertised (probably because it will raise alarms.)
2. The issue of "sovereignty" is a pretty big declaration from China. This means that this issue has been elevated to strategic importance. It's not really surprising when you consider the massive influx of resources and infrastructure that the PLA/PLAAF have been building up in this area.

ougoah said:

Yeah war only possible if India attacks or invades into Aksai Chin. If India invades buffer areas, only slight escalation but doubt there'd be war. If India only insists on remaining in their last few positions that they have not disengaged from, well this is the current situation and China's approach seems to be one of patience. It's already secured two buffer deals out of India but to remove India completely, it seems to have made moves with bilateral talks with Bhutan and putting pressure on Modi government through releasing photos and videos of clash probably in the hopes that Modi exchanges Indian positions for a stop to political embarrassment and supplying Modi's opposition with material.

A war is simply a massive waste of resources, lives, and time. India hasn't managed to secure the 20% or access Aksai Chin. It has lost patrol rights to two sections of the 20%. The trend favours China but to secure Aksai Chin, China must get a total buffer over the 20% (or control it) not the current partial buffer. However a partial buffer is much better than none at all and IA outnumber PLA by many times. IA can throw much more weight in manpower over this region. A long terms PLA occupation of various parts of that 20% is near impossible because if PLA number in the hundreds, IA can send 10K to push PLA out if we go back to none buffer conditions and occupation and human wave attack cycle. PLA did well the first time because the Indians did not know how it would go down. If they want to repeat June fight scenario I reckon advantage would thoroughly be on India's side.

It is very lucky and good for China that it secured buffer deal for those two sites otherwise India could simply send 100x more and actually push PLA out and take over those areas.

Knowing this, it is very unsurprising that India refuses to vacate remaining position after the latest negotiation. They have the advantage now and they know it. If PLA escalates using force, it would allow India to break buffer agreement and they may actually be able to use sheer size to occupy the 20%.

Therefore China uses alternative means to try and get IA out of the remaining positions IA are holding. These include those two general indications of strategic direction we see - pressure Modi gov and hold bilateral deals with Bhutan. Actually I'm still convinced Bhutan is thoroughly Indian controlled and aligned. MOUs are a bit worthless and China shouldn't have revealed its hand there. India is going to immediately rush to do talks with Bhutan. Putting pressure on Modi gov by giving opposition more material to unseat Modi is sort of a pointless thing ultimately since opposition will hold the same positions if in power. Only the dynamics of negotiations may change. This is BJP's ultimate counter to China's move on this - tell China that Congress would not leave positions either.

Click to expand...

reservior dogs said:

Human wave tactics has its limitations. There are many ways to counter it without resorting to also doing massive built up on your side.

1. All weather monitoring. This allow the Chinese side to know when troop movements are happening.

2. Infrastructure building near the neutral zone. This is already going apace. More will come.

3. Stop the Indians from building infrastructure inside the neutral zone.

4. Provide armor and combat weapons. If the Chinese side has a hundred people and the Indian side has 2000, in hand to hand combat, if you have proper armor and have a good formation, you can still win because the contact point is limited. When the frontline collapses on the Indian side, it usually trigger panic and they run. The next phase will be mechanized armor and mechanized cold weapons. You can even drop rocks from drones, the possibilities are limitless.

5. Psych Opt. After confrontation and getting beaten each time, and the stories of soldiers getting injured spreads, the Indian Army will be conditioned to run away instead of fighting. You can have ten thousand people, but if they run at the first contact, it does them no good.

6. Other non lethal weapons such as microwaves. It sounds like they are already deployed.

Also since they are soldiers for life, most of the Indian soldiers are too out of shape and old to be of any use up in the mountains. This will, in the longer run, drag them down economically and delay or stop their economic development. It will also allow the PLA to learn and find smarter ways to fight this type of warfare which might be useful in certain types of future encounters with a different country.

Click to expand...

ZeEa5KPul said:

Excellent post overall, but I think it misses an unfortunate fact that Bhutan faces. If Bhutan were sovereign and free to decide its policies it would do weigh its choices exactly as you outlined. But it isn't. Not only does India exercise direct control of the Bhutanese government (in a relationship that looks like something out of the 18th century), it also threatens Bhutan with annexation if it doesn't comply. It's not just a matter of Bhutan and China reaching a border agreement.

Successfully aligning Bhutan with China requires that China be willing to commit to protecting Bhutan militarily from any hostile action by India. I'm skeptical that China would make that commitment, though less skeptical now than I used to be.

Click to expand...

ougoah said:

Understand your enemy and understand yourself (DO NOT LIE TO SELF!).

India wants control of 20% without a war. This is what they set out to do in January 2020.

China wants no dramas (read confrontations and potential escalations) on this border while maintaining total control secured on Askai Chin (80%). In response to India's desire to control the remaining 20%, China needs to convert the entire thing into a buffer to seal off Aksai Chin. Also wants to avoid war but absolutely will not compromise on Aksai Chin and that means not letting India control the 20% because if it does, then they will patrol Aksai Chin as well.

India has huge manpower advantage in this region. I cannot understand why India actually agreed to China's buffer deal back in later half of 2020. It makes no sense at all because it serves China's interest so damn well at least on two sites. I suspect India made those deals with the duplicitous thinking that they will simply violate those deals if and when it suits. There is simply no way India would observe those deals if things escalate.

If both understand the other wants to avoid real shooting war, India holds total advantage simply because it can send so much more men. Which is exactly what they've been doing. It will be a giant human wave on human wave push fest one where IA can outnumber PLA by more than in the past. This means China can only choose to either escalate to shooting war in order to secure sovereignty or give up the 20% which means Aksai Chin gets threatened once India controls the 20%.

I think here is where Arunachal Pradesh claims come into play. Like India with its inherent manpower advantage over China in Aksai Chin side, China has manpower advantage over India in AP side. This is where China has held India to a difficult choice of giving in to buffer agreement for one, otherwise AP totally opens since AC side India could actually push PLA out if they really wanted to do so, assuming China absolutely will not go to war over this.

Now the problem is that both understand the other wants to avoid shooting war for their own unique reasons. The issue is India doesn't know where China's red lines are and Indian leaders knowing war means defeat and either loss of career or loss of life. China knows India could push to gain control but will not make it clear where the lines are for when PLA simply responds with the only option, war. China also needs to keep the Indian leaders believing that its red line is close and it will trigger war. Probably the only reason why India is not performing 50K men push. That and AP opening up. If India captures 20%, China captures parts near Tawang using manpower push only.

China wants to avoid wasting war machine on India even if it is a relatively minor proportion of inventory. If India invades properly then of course there's no alternative. Even defeating India thoroughly, there is still nothing to gain for China except the 20% and maybe parts around Tawang. Which India would keep contesting.

Click to expand...

Sardaukar20 said:

Yes. I too feel that if India were to intervene into Bhutan, there is actually very little that China can do other than diplomatically protest. China's own pledge to not intervene into the internal matters of other countries truly limits its options. So there are 2 scenarios that I speculate could happen:

1) India overthrows the Bhutanese government. If India does this, China can't do much really, and the West would tacitly support India. Bhutan shall return to being an appendage of India. But this will spook India's South Asian neighbours. They are gonna align even more with China in hopes to better protect themselves against Indian imperialism. So this further isolates India even more in South Asia in the longer term.

2) India annexes Bhutan. By annexing Bhutan, Bhutan's territorial disputes with China will now becomes India's problem. This will open a new front with China. China will have to militarily respond to prevent India from occupying what was once Chinese territory that was being disputed with Bhutan. If India decides to be aggressive, then India could expect another skirmish or even a war. Not to mention this will also scare and disgust India's neighbours to further align with China.

In the bigger picture. China losing Bhutan to India wouldn't really change its own strategic calculations by much. It'll just be a return to the old days of disputing the borders with both India and Bhutan. But India's strategic calculations will change drastically. India will scare and disgust its neighbours, thus pushing them further into China's orbit. India will only accelerate its isolation in Asia by regime changing or annexing Bhutan.

Click to expand...