Ladakh Flash Point

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tch1972

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I have a love-hate relationship with the Filipinos. I could never understand or fathom the level of delusions most of them have against China especially when it comes to the South China Sea dispute and the worst chance that China and the Philippines goes to war. The Philippine military is a joke since it lacks all the necessary tools to fight what most experts around the world agree as one of the military superpower in the world - China. But try to watch or listen to any of that country's so called experts and you would think that they possess or in a position of strength militarily, economically, and or politically. In my opinion having lived in that country for at least a decade I find the Filipino bravado not too dissimilar from the Jai Hinds of India. Two countries that were beaten down by their colonial masters and yet act like they're some kind of undefeated warriors that can stare and even beat down a country like China.

I had been to Ph in 1995 on a joint exercise with PAF. At that point was the height of SCS dispute when China built some shelters on reefs claimed by PH. The army personels asked if Singapore would help PH if they go to war with China. Later relation turn sour between Singapore and PH because of a maid hanging incident and becomes the centre topic of their election overshadowed SCS dispute.

Having said that, PH is beautiful country. I still fondly remember the 3 weeks i spent at Fort Madsaysay.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
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Can you guys please stop the Philippines discussion here on this thread? If you insist, take it elsewhere.
 

reservior dogs

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He is the only sane Indian that I read. I don't think a war is probable in the future, but he highlights the huge disparity well between PLA and Indian army. If a war was to be fought, it is likely that the Chinese would suffer minimal to no casualties while the Indian arm forces will be badly mauled. The types of war the PLA is capable of fighting is several levels above that of the Indian Army.
 

Temstar

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Latest 观棋有语 has a big section right at the start about the latest video leaks. The people in charge of it has noticed that the videos has had an effect, and one that's different from the photos to boot. With this second wave with the video it has been noted that there are very clear and deliberate effort on the Indian side to play it down in both traditional as well as social media. The truth it seems is a powerful weapon against India. The conclusion is that India does in fact care about face, but they care about it in a different way from China. If you deliberately try to safe face for them they won't consider it a nice gesture, but if you threaten to expose the truth they do feel it.

Yang said PLA will probably consider GoPro as important as guandao going forward.

Yang also recommends that PLA change their "resistance is useless" talk going forward into "lay down your arms or somebody is going to get hurt real bad" complete with an Russell Peters accent.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
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He is the only sane Indian that I read. I don't think a war is probable in the future, but he highlights the huge disparity well between PLA and Indian army. If a war was to be fought, it is likely that the Chinese would suffer minimal to no casualties while the Indian arm forces will be badly mauled. The types of war the PLA is capable of fighting is several levels above that of the Indian Army.

Yeah war only possible if India attacks or invades into Aksai Chin. If India invades buffer areas, only slight escalation but doubt there'd be war. If India only insists on remaining in their last few positions that they have not disengaged from, well this is the current situation and China's approach seems to be one of patience. It's already secured two buffer deals out of India but to remove India completely, it seems to have made moves with bilateral talks with Bhutan and putting pressure on Modi government through releasing photos and videos of clash probably in the hopes that Modi exchanges Indian positions for a stop to political embarrassment and supplying Modi's opposition with material.

A war is simply a massive waste of resources, lives, and time. India hasn't managed to secure the 20% or access Aksai Chin. It has lost patrol rights to two sections of the 20%. The trend favours China but to secure Aksai Chin, China must get a total buffer over the 20% (or control it) not the current partial buffer. However a partial buffer is much better than none at all and IA outnumber PLA by many times. IA can throw much more weight in manpower over this region. A long terms PLA occupation of various parts of that 20% is near impossible because if PLA number in the hundreds, IA can send 10K to push PLA out if we go back to none buffer conditions and occupation and human wave attack cycle. PLA did well the first time because the Indians did not know how it would go down. If they want to repeat June fight scenario I reckon advantage would thoroughly be on India's side.

It is very lucky and good for China that it secured buffer deal for those two sites otherwise India could simply send 100x more and actually push PLA out and take over those areas.

Knowing this, it is very unsurprising that India refuses to vacate remaining position after the latest negotiation. They have the advantage now and they know it. If PLA escalates using force, it would allow India to break buffer agreement and they may actually be able to use sheer size to occupy the 20%.

Therefore China uses alternative means to try and get IA out of the remaining positions IA are holding. These include those two general indications of strategic direction we see - pressure Modi gov and hold bilateral deals with Bhutan. Actually I'm still convinced Bhutan is thoroughly Indian controlled and aligned. MOUs are a bit worthless and China shouldn't have revealed its hand there. India is going to immediately rush to do talks with Bhutan. Putting pressure on Modi gov by giving opposition more material to unseat Modi is sort of a pointless thing ultimately since opposition will hold the same positions if in power. Only the dynamics of negotiations may change. This is BJP's ultimate counter to China's move on this - tell China that Congress would not leave positions either.
 

ougoah

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Understand your enemy and understand yourself (DO NOT LIE TO SELF!).

India wants control of 20% without a war. This is what they set out to do in January 2020.

China wants no dramas (read confrontations and potential escalations) on this border while maintaining total control secured on Askai Chin (80%). In response to India's desire to control the remaining 20%, China needs to convert the entire thing into a buffer to seal off Aksai Chin. Also wants to avoid war but absolutely will not compromise on Aksai Chin and that means not letting India control the 20% because if it does, then they will patrol Aksai Chin as well.

India has huge manpower advantage in this region. I cannot understand why India actually agreed to China's buffer deal back in later half of 2020. It makes no sense at all because it serves China's interest so damn well at least on two sites. I suspect India made those deals with the duplicitous thinking that they will simply violate those deals if and when it suits. There is simply no way India would observe those deals if things escalate.

If both understand the other wants to avoid real shooting war, India holds total advantage simply because it can send so much more men. Which is exactly what they've been doing. It will be a giant human wave on human wave push fest one where IA can outnumber PLA by more than in the past. This means China can only choose to either escalate to shooting war in order to secure sovereignty or give up the 20% which means Aksai Chin gets threatened once India controls the 20%.

I think here is where Arunachal Pradesh claims come into play. Like India with its inherent manpower advantage over China in Aksai Chin side, China has manpower advantage over India in AP side. This is where China has held India to a difficult choice of giving in to buffer agreement for one, otherwise AP totally opens since AC side India could actually push PLA out if they really wanted to do so, assuming China absolutely will not go to war over this.

Now the problem is that both understand the other wants to avoid shooting war for their own unique reasons. The issue is India doesn't know where China's red lines are and Indian leaders knowing war means defeat and either loss of career or loss of life. China knows India could push to gain control but will not make it clear where the lines are for when PLA simply responds with the only option, war. China also needs to keep the Indian leaders believing that its red line is close and it will trigger war. Probably the only reason why India is not performing 50K men push. That and AP opening up. If India captures 20%, China captures parts near Tawang using manpower push only.

China wants to avoid wasting war machine on India even if it is a relatively minor proportion of inventory. If India invades properly then of course there's no alternative. Even defeating India thoroughly, there is still nothing to gain for China except the 20% and maybe parts around Tawang. Which India would keep contesting.
 
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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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If they want to repeat June fight scenario I reckon advantage would thoroughly be on India's side.
It is very lucky and good for China that it secured buffer deal for those two sites otherwise India could simply send 100x more and actually push PLA out and take over those areas.
Knowing this, it is very unsurprising that India refuses to vacate remaining position after the latest negotiation. They have the advantage now and they know it.
Are you alright? Did you hit your head or something?
assuming China absolutely will not go to war over this.
Why would you assume that? More than that, why would you base that entire very weak analysis on this very dubious assumption.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Are you alright? Did you hit your head or something?

What about that is wrong exactly?

India has more manpower here and roughly equal sized army in manpower only. If both want to avoid war and India wants to use patrol and pushing tactics to salami slice, how can PLA respond? There is a limit to what PLA can do without escalating to shooting war. If India sends 100x more men to simply take over the 20%, PLA can only respond with actual force. That means wasting resources. The reason Indian leaders are way too afraid to do this and signed buffer deals is because they fear this step. China wants to save itself trouble and resources and win by securing total buffers. India's tool is manpower. China is preventing it from using this by threat of war if India goes down that path. China's long term solution to this is securing total buffer so that it can be left alone on this border and doesn't have to send PLA out to meet increasing numbers of Indian patrols (prior to 2020).
 
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