India does not have the capability at the moment to even attempt to gain anything through enlargement of border dispute into war that might be commensurate with even the most optimistic assessment of how much a war with china will cost.
Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
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I think being fearful of mass loss of faith in the country, its destiny and worthiness of its governing parties to retain their hold on power, India’s ruling and opinion making elite is trying to create a narrative to the effect that several decades of military investment is paying dividends in enabling the country to solve, through a combination of its own military power and the alliance value if its military power, the acute military problem that has come to the front of most people’s mind, when in fact that problem at hand is not a really a fundamental security threat to india, and india military doesn't have the capability to even come close to solving it. Indeed the perception might perversely be that a non-fundamental problem must be less challenging and therefore easier to solve. If you can’t solve a non fundamental problem how are you going to solve a fundamental one. This is bullshit reasoning, but sounds intuitive. perhaps the vague underlying awareness that india military can’t solve this problem is why nationalists are so fervent in the denial.
Yes. It is of the reinforcement I believe.
Point 1:
I don't know which universe you live on. In our universe's timeline. China in 1959-1960 had offered cede South Tibet to India, in exchange for China fully controlling Aksai Chin. But India wanted everything instead. Nehru initiated the 'Forward Policy', which was literally a military aggression to push China out of all the dispute areas. I didn't come up with this. Its in the Henderson Brooks-Bhagat report.
Point 2:
I believe all military agreements between India and China not to deploy force on the border is broken by India. India initiated the Doklam standoff by sending troops into the disputed territory via Bhutan. Last time I checked, other countries doing this is considered an act of war. India had shown to China in 2017 that it is ready to ignore any military agreements on a whim.
The big one was the Abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. With that, India unilaterally claimed Aksai Chin into its J-K Union territory. Thay essentially puts any border military agreement with China in question. Because now, the lines have been moved from 'disputed territory' to Indian unilateral act of annexing Aksai Chin. Worse, your beloved Home Minister Amit Shah vowed to 'sacrifice lives' to unite Aksai Chin into J-K. Shortly thereafter on early 2020 when China was in the midst of its own Covid-19 outbreak, India moved men and material into the disputed territories and started building roads there. In particular at the Galwan Valley. Indian troops then attacked Chinese troops without firearms at Pangong Lake and Galwan. That's textbook military aggression. That practically moots any military agreements for non-aggression between India and China.
India broke those agreements, not China. Hence India is at fault for everything that is happening now. China is extremely restraint. If India attempted the same nonsense with Pakistan, Russia, or Azerbaijan. Shells, missiles, and aircrafts would already be on their way.
Lastly I would like to address the utter nonsense that you have said about India preferring trade with the US over China because of a trace surplus. Because that is more 'profitable'. This is Donald Trump level of economics. If the world economy works by that dumb logic, the US would have already called off trade with Japan, Germany, and India because of the trade deficit being 'not profitable'. China too has a trade deficit with Germany and Japan too. Did China stopped trading with them because it was 'not profitable'? Trade is trade, deficit or not. That's what makes China so rich, because China will trade with everyone, deficit or surplus.
Would India rather only to be trading with the US at the expense of China? Be my guest. Let's see how long until the US starts to hammer India on the trade deficits. The US had already forced Japan and Germany into the Plaza Accord. If you think that is wonderful for India, then good for you. I would celebrate that too.
The reason why trade deficits exists for USA is because the US can continue printing dollars out of thin air to pay for those imported goods. The reason why India has a trade deficit with China is because Indian industry cannot compete with Chinese industry. Why is that? I give you a hint: the Indian government. Protectionism, red tapes, cronyism, nepotism, lobbying, and flip-flop policies.
A clean market, innovation, and FDI is the only way for India to rise out of mediocrity. But BJP India is going in the opposite direction. China at one time was even wiling to invest into India capital and technology, and even wanted to relocate some manufacturing there. But India declined all that. Bravo! I think all of this is good for the world. Because India will continue down the same path of mediocrity. No more possibility of 'India Superpower'!
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From the video, at the point before the chinese reinforcement arrived, we can see that some of the indian soldiers were very provocative. One threatening to attack a chinese soldier with a stick plus another charging & lunging towards the same chinese soldier. Only one level headed indian soldier had practiced restraint by restraining his overzealous colleagues from committing what atrocities they had in their mind.
Thanks Ansy. I believe most Indians abroad will come across as rational mainly because you will deal with the educated lot. There will however be taxi drivers, workers who wanted a better life, could never go back and will have nothing to do with politics. However, both categories will include the odd lot also. I have found Chinese extremely talented and hard working in foreign countries and I admire them. Sometimes even they get generalised which is also wrong. Most of them are extremely polite, humble and nice. It is all down to people. As a Buddhist having a Muslim wife, I had my own struggles. However, i don't feel Indian hindus are irrational, certainly not most of them. It is to the credit of Indian founding fathers which were mainly all hindus that people have lived and mixed together well. There are of course issues created by politics because of which minorities might feel uncomfortable and that is a con of democracy but there are some pros also. But at a common level, all religions live peacefully and respect each other. There are odd troubles which shouldn’t be there but India is also a big country. I will certainly want India and China to come closer and keep differences at bay.
Sardaukar, I will love to have India China as friends again. I just suggested that in the current situation it seems difficult. I never mentioned Russia. Russia will continue to be friends with both India and China irrespective of what they choose to do with each other. They know their strategic limits which clearly showed in Azerbaijan Armenia war where they did nothing to help their ally.I don't know why do you think India getting closer to the USA at the expense of China is going to be useful to India. Let me give you a list of non-Western countries that have at some point in their history, have had a close relationship with the USA. You can judge how many of them had lived "happily ever after":
1) Russia
2) China
3) Iran
4) Cuba
5) Iraq
6) Vietnam *Hint: Check Vien Minh-era.
7) Israel*
8) Japan *Success? Think again!
9) Turkey
10) Afghanistan
11) Pakistan
India is welcomed to join that list. India can think it can be a success like Israel. But because Indians have never appeared in the Bible. Be prepared to be disappointed.
I have a better idea for India:
1) Sit down and talk to China. Cut a deal to demarcate the border. If India negotiates in good faith, China might feel a little generous.
2) Build trust and sign deals with China. It'll be a win-win deal for India.
3) After India and China settles on a normal working relationship. Only then approach America. China doesn't sanction other countries for doing business with the USA.
4) Why have only one market: USA? When you can have both USA and China? Hedge on either China and USA to get better trade deals from each one of them. Just don't cheat or play games with either one of them.
6) If India must choose a side. China is the best choice. Because China is the future, while America is the past. But more importantly, China won't be trying to subjugate India and meddle in its internal matters.
India getting closer to the USA right now, and practically severing ties with China can only lead to one thing. The surrendering of India to be vassalized by the USA. India now has almost zero leverage to negotiate better deals with the US. India is now allowing itself to be manipulated by a known imperial power. Because it wants some kinda protection against a local great power? Sounds familiar?
Also, please don't bring up Russia. Russia has neither the market nor the momentum to be a true alternative to US or China. Russia may be India's good friend, but Russia won't go into any hot or cold war with China or the USA just for India. Not happening ever. And that's the hard truth for India.
India’s relation with US never was at the expense of China till Galwan happened. And even after that I believe QUAD is just a show off. There are mature people in both China and India who will take their time. Border issue certainly needs to be settled once and for all. I feel that given the current skirmish and lives lost there will be a gap(small or big will depend) before India and China can be friends. There will be nationalists who will tease or point score and they should be ignored or allowed to have their fun with each other. Again, down to people and you can’t stop everyone.
Regarding US, they are still the biggest superpower and being close to them or friends with them is not bad. China’s current economic growth has also been possible largely because of US China coming closer in 1972. The hard work of their government and Chinese people however cannot be denied. I do agree that some countries have suffered being friends with US but again US will never ignore their own interests. They will not like to help someone to suddenly find that country becoming a threat and India will have to keep that in mind.
@Abhimanyu welcome bro, but I may disagree regarding the educated one, I found them more arrogant and condescending, bro not trying to demeaned you but through my experienced dealing with Indians here, I found those normal or average people easy to deal with and most of them are not Hindu. They just want to established a new life and maybe want to assimilate to be accepted and most of them (non Hindu) had no plan to return to India, they had sold everything they owned there to come here. Ali my Muslim friend may not hold a college degree, but with the opportunity and his business acumen, he is able to established a garment business which he said will not happen if he stay in India.
Bro his version of the story maybe personal that's why I want to hear more from you to have a better understanding. People that actually lived in India.
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Yes, Ansy, some of them can be very arrogant. Sometimes not everyone educated gets wisdom. Some of them build a hollowness inside them, an ego for their education which has helped them earn better. Some of these openly sneer at India also. Many Indians in US/UK look down upon Indians itself which I do understand as in India a certain attitude stops you from looking beyond your periphery. But still smile and help rather than 'I have nothing to do with them' should be there.
Many Indians Muslims are extremely warm but they became victims of politics. Remember, India got divided on religious lines in 1947 and a lingering suspicion in many Hindus has always been that Muslims will eventually make India a Muslim country. I have seen many such discussions where people cite how central Asia, Afpak and others lost their Indic heritage to become Islamic and fall in chaos. The recent Hindutva politics has its root in Hindus being ethnically cleansed in Kashmir in late 80’s, early 90’s. This had nothing to do with Indian Muslims. It was the same time period when Russia was leaving Afghanistan and the resources/fighters left over from Afghan Jihad were directed into Kashmir. I certainly feel Indians and Pakistanis need to sober up and mature their attitude. A point scoring, feeling happy on someone's harm is not a good attitude. I know many of my Muslim friends who stand up for India more than others and even fight with Pakistanis who accuse them of being lesser Muslims or being not that fair in colour. My brother-in-law does sympathise with Pakistan because it is a Muslim country but not because he feels lesser Indian. He says Indian Muslims got treated as Muhajirs(refugees) there. People like Salman Taseer who spoke against infamous blasphemy law got assassinated. He felt if Pakistan had become a modern Islamic state showing Indian values and roots it would have done a world of good to south Asia. Instead, he feels Pakistanis show themselves as having descended from Turks/Arabs/Iranis to mock Indians forgetting that culturally all their habits and customs are Indian. Pakistanis often say they ruled India for 700-1000 years, how Indians are inferior race, not that fair in colour, how many of their kings pillaged India. All stereotypes. Many of these Muslim kings had Hindu chieftains and soldiers and many Hindu kings had Muslim soldiers. Many of the central Asian invaders actually defeated Indian Muslim kings for example Babar (founder of Mughal rule) defeated Ibrahim Lodi (A Muslim king) Most of India never was under a single ruler. It always had Hindu rulers in several parts. Many countries like Burma / Srilanka /southern Nepal have been part of many Indian empires which never had Hindu or Muslim rulers.
History is a potpourri and people use it wrongly to feel proud or feel humiliated. I think it is same in China. For example, some of the conquest dynasties like Manchus felt they are more Chinese but were looked upon as foreigners. But still, they have all assimilated.
Pakistanis are another victim of politics. They could have become such a developed country but they wasted their energies.
India, Pakistan and China can all be a powerful European Union like structure but for that people need to improve their attitudes which I don’t see happening in a hundred years at least.
Sorry for moving away from Topic. I am sorry. Back to topic, I certainly feel in the next 10 years India and China will come closer but it will take time. Things will just take time.
Welcome my Buddhist friend.
I see to fit in you have already started putting Indians, particularly Hindus down. You might last here.
You are in a environment in which the people practise might is right. All your well reasoned posts will go to waste.
And your history lesson is already well understood here but its a waste as this is a place for real politic. With well entrenched positions.
For example if you ask them why did the Chinese troops occupy common patrolling land , they will put it on Indians, totally ignoring the timeline.
I have tried to press them to answer as this site claims to be hosted in a US server but either they are afraid or know its a Chinese aggression and divert the topic.
So everything except the origin of the ladakh clash will be discussed.
My position is very clear. India has started arming itself subsequent to the clash, discarding the normal bureaucratic route.
Peace between the 2 countries was dependent on India not objecting to the constant Chinese nibbling at the borders. But Indian reaction like in doklam has humiliated the Chinese top leaders and the ladakh clash was probably a reaction.
Whatever the reason, the opaque Chinese are not going to give a straight answer, but atleast India has trashed the policy of depending on the goodwill of china to maintain peace on the borders.
Now peace will be maintained through good old military deterrence or maybe peace wont be maintained ?
With china's expansionist tendencies and india's determination to maintain the status quo, a more serious clash is inevitable
Que sera sera.
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