Ladakh Flash Point


s002wjh

Junior Member
That’s an estimate based on pre-pandemic conditions, we can’t say for sure what will happen after the pandemic, the numbers are not pretty in India, and we will have to see how they deal with it.

Further, a lot of the machinery and equipment they use are made in China, whether it’s branded as Chinese or otherwise. They are playing with fire and might get burnt too. This will depend on how the India gov manage the bans.

They will need to massively increase their industrial capacity after they deal with the pandemic, which will be hard if Chinese heavy and electronic equipment is shunned, otherwise relying on service industry alone their economy will suffer further, since the amount of money in people’s pockets will be reduced and a certain level of outsourced services were already pulling out before and returning to their respective countries. It will be a vicious cycle, considering they are now killing apps which otherwise would have supported jobs in the service industry they will be relying on.
dont think india will cut off china in term of manufacture and other trading, they can't, it will be bad for them. but software apps and other alternative, its a different matter. would indian buy more samsung phone etc? China main priority should be western pacific, india is just a big distraction that Trump would happily take advantage of for his indp-pacific pivot. Could india buy more weapons from US after this? could india joint military exercise with US more frequently, including in ScS? would facebook/google and other western software apps establish a stronghold due to china-india tension. its something china need to watch out for.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
Idk what you guys are worried about.

During the last tiktok ban, people were still able to access Tiktok without much extra effort.

Proxies and VPNs are not blocked in India. There are non-google app stores.




If people in the mainland can access google and youtube, Tiktok would be a piece of cake in India.
its more about nationalism, just like iphone sell drop in china and huawei phone sell raise. Though not sure how long that nationalism will last. but worst case is facebook/google etc establish a strong hold in the country, then its hard for ppl to switch back. Just like facebook own app can't compete with tiktok in US. People already used to it
 

localizer

Senior Member
Registered Member
its more about nationalism, just like iphone sell drop in china and huawei phone sell raise. Though not sure how long that nationalism will last. but worst case is facebook/google etc establish a strong hold in the country, then its hard for ppl to switch back. Just like facebook own app can't compete with tiktok in US. People already used to it

There's a decent chance US will ban Tiktok.

Tiktok was banned once in India before, they should've prepared for another ban. If the management can't anticipate geopolitical troubles, the the company needs to change its management.
 

Mt1701d

Junior Member
Registered Member
dont think india will cut off china in term of manufacture and other trading, but software apps, its a different matter. whenever there is tension other company will try to take advantage of that.
Well the problem is we don’t know how the ‘bans’/boycotts will happen, we are only looking at the beginning and they went so far as to destroy their own property in order to support the boycott. Also the customs are making things difficult as well. These are actions that we can use a benchmark as to how far they will/can go. Whilst a lot of normal people may not subscribe to it, the hardcore lot seems to want to take it to the extreme.

The longer the stand off continue the more extreme this can get... so it’s difficult to say. As for other companies... well in software it takes a while for adoption and it also take capital, it’s not like it’s an overnight thing, so in the short - mid term it would do a lot of harm, and have longer term consequences. Investors will also be wary about ROI when investing in such a market, and will likely limit investments until proven otherwise. With their economy is such a state, in the short term, investment might be very limited, which will further delay recovery.

They may not be able to ban the apps completely but I doubt the app companies will put anymore money into supporting the services for the apps locally. Mostly likely they will reduce to minimal levels costing either existing jobs or potential new jobs.
 

Josh Luo

Senior Member
Registered Member
Is the Indian government going to force Google and Apple to remove Tik Tok from their app stores? If so, rest in piece 100 million + Indian Tik Tok content creators lol. But seriously if this happens I'm almost certain there will be significant retaliatory measures by the Chinese on Indian exports.
I do expect the Chinese to retaliate in the coming weeks, either through WTO, tariffs, or administrative sanctions against India MNCs like Tata. Bollywood could also lose their share of the Chinese market when it is just about to take off in the latter.
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
Well the problem is we don’t know how the ‘bans’/boycotts will happen, we are only looking at the beginning and they went so far as to destroy their own property in order to support the boycott. Also the customs are making things difficult as well. These are actions that we can use a benchmark as to how far they will/can go. Whilst a lot of normal people may not subscribe to it, the hardcore lot seems to want to take it to the extreme.

The longer the stand off continue the more extreme this can get... so it’s difficult to say. As for other companies... well in software it takes a while for adoption and it also take capital, it’s not like it’s an overnight thing, so in the short - mid term it would do a lot of harm, and have longer term consequences. Investors will also be wary about ROI when investing in such a market, and will likely limit investments until proven otherwise. With their economy is such a state, in the short term, investment might be very limited, which will further delay recovery.

They may not be able to ban the apps completely but I doubt the app companies will put anymore money into supporting the services for the apps locally. Mostly likely they will reduce to minimal levels costing either existing jobs or potential new jobs.
facebook/google etc already have some market share, just can't compete with some chinese apps. one of my friend work at google & yahoo before, he did mention india is one of their growth area. So if india really dead set on banning the apps, it will open door to other company from different country. as for manufacture/heavy industry and other goods etc, india is still rely on china, so they gonna hurt themself if they make those trading more difficult. india goverment probably will select certain goods(ie tiktok etc) to ban, that have less impact on their economy or find alternative western products. its not gonna be like business as usual after the border tension for sure. worst case is india grow too close to US.
 

Mt1701d

Junior Member
Registered Member
facebook/google etc already have some market share, just can't compete with some chinese apps. one of my friend work at google & yahoo before, he did mention india is one of their growth area. So if india really dead set on banning the apps, it will open door to other company from different country. as for manufacture/heavy industry and other goods etc, india is still rely on china, so they gonna hurt themself if they make those trading more difficult. india goverment probably will select certain goods(ie tiktok etc) to ban, that have less impact on their economy or find alternative western products. its not gonna be like business as usual after the border tension for sure. worst case is india grow too close to US.
Sure Facebook and Google have a presences, I would assume that they can’t compete because of the incentives the Chinese app companies were offering, that would probably apply to other companies too. These incentives would ultimately be beneficial to the users of the apps, without the aggressive competition I doubt Facebook/google as well as others, would be as willing to offer a better deal.

Also it will depend on whether the numbers of people these other companies will be willing hire, would be enough to replace the potential lost of jobs from the companies of the banned apps. Western software company tend to use less people and rely more on algorithms, whereas Chinese companies have a tendency to use larger number of people, it used to apply to software companies in China too but I am not entirely certain about it nowadays. It may not be catastrophic but can have a bad knock on effect should it be prolonged.

As for manufacturing equipment the same applies, there is a reason why Chinese equipment is used, it may price out SMEs if they have to use western equipment which isn’t good for the economy in general, there was a reason why there was concern in the US regarding the huawei ban, some placing simply could afford the more expensive network equipment, if this can happen in the US, imagine the same in India. There is also competition to think about, no cheap equipment then there is less incentives for the remaining companies slash prices to attract customers, even with discounts it would likely not be cheaper than China made.

Regarding India growing closer to US, they were already doing that so not really going to change, it would more likely have a negative effect in the short term. Pissing off Russia whilst the US can’t completely ‘trust’ them yet.
 
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plawolf

Brigadier
This app boycott, like most Indian moves, is ham fisted, premature and vastly overestimate India’s relevance.

What is the goal of boycotts? To force the other side to change course through economic pressure, and/or inflict punitive economic damage on the other side to set them back.

India’s consumer base is still so small as to be effectively irrelevant in terms of the impact this ban will have on Chinese companies.

What more, Chinese investment in India is still minuscule and again, irrelevant in the broad scheme of things.

Other than symbolic, this ban does almost no material damage, thereby defeating the whole purpose of a boycott. This would be like you personally boycotting your local supermarket. It does nothing noticeable to the supermarket but greatly inconveniences you.

What else it does do is put India on the black lists of all Chinese companies due to political interference and instability.

Who wants to invest millions or billions when they know that the host country to institute bans or even asset seiners at a whim?

India needs Chinese capital far more than China needs the Indian market.

What matters in the economic world is the size of the market in monetary terms, not the headcount of people who cannot afford to buy what you are selling.
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
In 1979, when China hit Vietnam, it was something like 13:1 ratio between the PRC and Vietnam. The present ratio is something like 6:1, which isn't completely undoable.
In 1979, you have to remember that Vietnam's geopolitical situation was far worse, in comparison to India today.

Vietnam was allied with a distant USSR, but faced China on borders.
Along with a hostile defacto China-US-Asia alliance working against the USSR/Vietnam.

As for Brazilianization, the US, through its Monroe doctrine and regional hegemony, has been preventing the emergence of any strong competitors in Latin America. Applied to China-India; it would be more if China spent effort on distracting India from modernizing or sabotaging its elites.

From the US perspective, the problem for them is that American strategy has been focused on creating primacy and keeping it. An India that can stand up to China is also an India that can stand up to the United States.
The continental USA is secure, because it only has 2 small weak countries as neighbours.
That means the USA has spare resources for power projection elsewhere.

And in the Americas, only Brazil has the population to mount a realistic challenge to US regional hegemony.
But it is Brazil's internal failings that prevent it from escaping the middle-income trap.

From China's perspective, it would be great if Brazil was developed.
It has 2/3 of the US population, so you could expect an economy 2/3 the size as well, with all that this implies in terms of competition with the USA. But this hasn't happened to due to Brazil's own performance.

You advocate sabotaging India, but there is nothing more destructive that the idea that another country deliberately aiming to keep you poor.
Just look at how the average Chinese person now believes that the USA will stop at nothing to keep China poor.
 

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