J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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Blitzo

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In any case, the number of f-22 is going down per attrition and age. J-20 will match number faster by the years. They will probably ramp-up production when ws-15 will be ready.

"Matching" F-22 numbers isn't really the point of what he meant I believe...

I think he's just using the F-22 production run as a way of indirectly telling us what a low-end/minimum estimate of J-20s produced by 2027 is.
I also don't expect expansion of J-20 production to be specifically dependent on WS-15.

Even when powered by WS-10, J-20 is easily the the most capable air superiority fighter the PLA has by a massive long mile and the combination of stealth, sensors, and competent kinematics even using the interim engines makes it massively worthwhile to expand production and procurement as fast as practically viable.
 

Atomicfrog

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Even when powered by WS-10, J-20 is easily the the most capable air superiority fighter the PLA has by a massive long mile and the combination of stealth, sensors, and competent kinematics even using the interim engines makes it massively worthwhile to expand production and procurement as fast as practically viable.

Sure , it's the reason that comparing with US jet doesnt mean a lot... J-20 is a big step forward for the PLA, whatever the engine in it,
 

Blitzo

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Sure , it's the reason that comparing with US jet doesnt mean a lot... J-20 is a big step forward for the PLA, whatever the engine in it,

Yes, though my point is there may not be a relationship between the production rate of J-20s going forwards and WS-15 availability..
 

Blitzo

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Given that LRIP started in late 2015 and by the end of 2026 the number of serial J-20s should have reached the number of F-22s built, that means that 187 J-20s must be built within roughly 10 years, what equals a rate of about 18-20 J-20s per year, which would ruin some fan-boys wet dreams, which state a rate of 30 to eve 60 per year.

Building on this a little bit, re the production side of things, I think we can put forward some tentative projections regarding the what the "minimum, medium, maximum" production/procurement rates of J-20 going forwards might be, now that we have clarified that the "F-22 numbers/scale by 2027" is understood to mean a "minimum case" scenario.

First of all, we don't know how many production J-20s are in service/have been completed today.
For the purposes of discussion by now in late 2020 I think it is reasonable to float anywhere between 40-60 aircraft

Minimum scenario -- 187 J-20s in service by 2027, i.e.: 147 aircraft to be built over the course of 6-7 years, or, as Deino has stated, an average production rate of 18-20 aircraft per year (going from 2016 to 2017). This is just simple maths, so that's fine.


The question is what should constitute a medium and maximal scenario for J-20 production and procurement. Would intervals of an additional 10 aircraft, or 20 aircraft be more reasonable?

We don't really know what he's thinking to be reasonable, so let's be a bit more circumspect and use both.
For all of the below, I use the upper bound for the ranges in terms of production rate and years for ease of the round numbers but you can get the gist yourself.

Medium scenario +10, i.e.: average production rate of 28-30, over 6-7 years, up to 210 additional aircraft + 40-60 in service today, total of up to 270 by 2027
Maximal scenario +20, i.e.: average production rate of 38-40, over 6-7 years, up to 280 additional aircraft + 40-60 in service today, total of up to 340 in service by 2027

Medium scenario + 20, i.e.: average production rate of 38-40, over 6-7 years, up to 280 additional aircraft + 40-60 in service today, total of up to 340 in service
Maximal scenario + 40, i.e.: average production rate of 58-60, over 6-7 years, up to 420 additional aircraft + 40-60 in service today, total of up to 480 in service


..... now, average production rate over the next 6-7 years probably is only useful for us for easy arithmetic, but in reality the production rate of J-20s in late 2026 is likely to be significantly higher than the production rate of J-20 in early 2021.
It is very likely -- I would say almost guaranteed -- that J-20 production will continue post 2027 (that date was only chosen by the author for PLA 100th anniversary purposes anyway), potentially into the early 2030s while the expected 6th generation efforts begin production of their own.
[This would not be dissimilar to how 4+ gen production is continuing for the PLA (as well as other nations, including the USAF) while 5th gen production ramps up, and it is also likely that the "J-20" of the late 2020s/early 2030s may have features that it could claim to be "5.5th" gen, whatever that ends up being.]

The production rate of J-20 of course is also tied to what kind of final production run the PLA aims for.

Below is an projected annual production of F-22s planned initially in 1998, up to 2010, for 293 aircraft at that stage, reaching a peak of 36 aircraft a year in 2003-2009, and then dropping to 29, and production was assumed to continue to 2013 for a total of 339 aircraft, presumably with the annual production rate dropping afterwards.
Below that, is also an updated annual production of 2006, where the production ceased in 2010 and a peak production rate of only 24 aircraft a year, for a total of 170 F-22s depicted in the graph, presumably later on once the USAF decided to cut its total procurement size.

f22 production - Copy.jpg


I.e.: the above is an effective demonstration that a larger planned procurement size means you will likely have a higher peak production rate for a number of years compared to a smaller planned procurement size.

In other words, for us trying to predict what the evolution of J-20's annual production rate might be going from the early 2020s, to mid 2020s, to late 2020s, we need to first consider how many J-20s the PLA is planning for.
In the next decade there are of course going to be various technological changes that may favour certain airpower trends, and there will also be increasing strategic competition, and on the economic and industrial front it is expected that China will still continue to grow a respectable amount (leaving a specific number aside). That is to say, the geopolitical, industrial, and economic trends should all make China at present highly focused on continuing to modernize its military, and while they would likely continue to make investments into next generation technologies and cost-efficient counter-air systems (long range missiles, among others), they will likely continue to desire the ability to contest air superiority in a symmetric way as well, on "even ground" considering the scale of 5th generation/F-35 proliferation in the region.

In terms of aerial platforms, I do expect the PLA to pursue unmanned systems and loyal wingman systems, but I also personally expect them to achieve sufficient numbers of manned fighter aircraft to be provide a solid, robust foundation of manned aircraft. I do expect J-20 to be complemented by a medium weight fighter in the mid to late 2020s, likely a land based variant of J-XY, whose production will extend into the mid 2030s.

All this is to say, for J-20 at the moment, I tentatively and cautiously propose production to end in the early 2030s (let's say 2032-33), and that the final number of J-20s produced will be in excess of 600 aircraft, up to 700 at most. I pull that number from a combination of the number of total "heavy weight" fighters that the PLA has in service today (Flankers, but also J-8IIs, and to an extent JH-7/As), and seeking to have a production run that will be able to supplement and partially replace those in due time come the early 2030s.
This number of J-20s is of course slightly smaller than the original production run/requirement of F-22/ATF back in the day, which called for 750 aircraft. The US for a variety of geopolitical, economic and technological reasons cut down on its F-22 procurement to the famous 187 aircraft it has now, but will field a much larger 5th generation fleet than 750 in total when considering F-35s, which was not part of the original projections of F-22's 750 count.
If F-35 hadn't emerged when it did -- and its emergence very much was a massive geopolitical and industrial game of coordination that has borne fruit -- then I expect the US would've still bought a large fleet of F-22s.

China of course has the J-XY/J-35 which is intended for carriers, and it is likely that a land based variant will also be developed. But I am skeptical if J-XY and J-20 will see the same difference in scale of numbers as the F-35 to F-22 relationship will be in US service.
Part of this is because of closer proximity in technology and the recognition from the PLA that they need a heavy weight high performance fighter at this point in time which the US thought it was able to do without when it cancelled F-22 in lieu of F-35.
Part of this also is because, imo, if we look at the PLA's current fleet of J-10s and Flankers, the two are at almost an equal ratio. Sure, I expect the ratio of J-10s to Flankers to perhaps reach something like 1.3:1, or 1.5:1 even, but right now it's about 1.2:1.

All this is to provide my thinking behind my tentative projection of a final production run of J-20s (ending, for sake of my own prediction in 2032-33) being over 600, approaching 700 tops.


So, over the next 6-7 years of course is a long time, however imo barring the usual caveats (massive natural disaster, massive economic disaster, and war), I personally predict a range that the PLA will likely have between 300-400 J-20s in service by end 2027, let's call it 350 in total by end 2027.
For 350, minus the 40-60 that we assume is in existence today, that's 290-310 to be built over 7 years.

That's an average build rate of between 41-44 aircraft a year over 7 years.
If we assume that they, in 2021 is able to build some 20-24 aircraft a year, but that the PLA would've funded expansion of production capacity to aim for a 600+ fleet by the early 2030s, and going by the expansion of F-22 production capacity as illustrated above for a 339 strong fleet, I posit a tentative:

2021, 20-24
2022, 32-36
2023, 32-36
2024, 44-48
2025, 44-48
2026, 44-48
2027, 56-60

The numbers above are of course just a range to give an impression (and the top ranges don't even add up to 310 but 300), and in the next few years as production (and more important procurement) evidence emerges to give us a grasp of how many are actually produced/commissioned a year, I expect my range will likely be revised, likely reduced.
And in case the above numbers seem a bit high, let's recall that currently F-35s are being delivered at 130-140 a year. Obviously we do not expect J-20s to approach anything near that rate at its peak, but I think half that number for a number of years at its peak is not unreasonable.

However the above process imo is something that can be kept in mind in coming years as we track J-20 production, and assumptions or ranges can be altered as new evidence emerge.

The key takeaways imo are:
- The "F-22 ballpark minimum count by 2027" serves as a useful floor for us for the purposes of projection, even if we do not fully ascribe to it 100%.
- Assumptions of total J-20 procurement over the next decade plus will determine what J-20s peak production rate may be over this period.
 

Totoro

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Lots of ifs in this guesstimate, but let's try nevertheless:
IF 2016 was the same milestone in production for j20 as 1998 was for f22 production,
And IF the schedules of f22 are applied,

Then one might get the following results for j20:

Using low f22 production schedule,
J20 guesstimate at the end of 2020 is at 25 airframes.
Using the higher f22 production schedule, j20 might be at 58 airframes.

Doing a projection to the end of 2027 yields 3 timelines. One for low estimate, numbering 156 airframes.
One for high estimate, numbering 310 airframes.
And one for low estimate but adjusted for possible/probable realities of production. Namely, no gap year in production (which f22 low schedule has) and no reverting to lower per year yield once the peak of 24 airframes per year is reached.
Assuming all those, the revised low guesstimate at the end of 2027 would stand at 188 airframes.

There are also various issues one might take up with other data that are rumorored or have been observed with actual j20 production schedule. depending on how one might define one airframe being finished, even end of 2015 might be a comparable moment to f22's 2020 when first two prtvs were delivered. Also, two different f22 schedules had 2 to 8 prtvs. Images of j10 suggest 6 equivalent airframes. So an error of several more airframes might have to be calculated into the whole thing.

Od course, none of this actually means j20 production would stick to either of the f22 schedules.
 

Blitzo

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Lots of ifs in this guesstimate, but let's try nevertheless:
IF 2016 was the same milestone in production for j20 as 1998 was for f22 production,
And IF the schedules of f22 are applied,

Then one might get the following results for j20:

Using low f22 production schedule,
J20 guesstimate at the end of 2020 is at 25 airframes.
Using the higher f22 production schedule, j20 might be at 58 airframes.

Doing a projection to the end of 2027 yields 3 timelines. One for low estimate, numbering 156 airframes.
One for high estimate, numbering 310 airframes.
And one for low estimate but adjusted for possible/probable realities of production. Namely, no gap year in production (which f22 low schedule has) and no reverting to lower per year yield once the peak of 24 airframes per year is reached.
Assuming all those, the revised low guesstimate at the end of 2027 would stand at 188 airframes.

There are also various issues one might take up with other data that are rumorored or have been observed with actual j20 production schedule. depending on how one might define one airframe being finished, even end of 2015 might be a comparable moment to f22's 2020 when first two prtvs were delivered. Also, two different f22 schedules had 2 to 8 prtvs. Images of j10 suggest 6 equivalent airframes. So an error of several more airframes might have to be calculated into the whole thing.

Od course, none of this actually means j20 production would stick to either of the f22 schedules.

Just re the "low" and "high" production schedules you describe for F-22, I think calling them "187 run" and "339 run" is more accurate, because as aforementioned the full production run of an aircraft should have a relationship with the number of aircraft one produces in a year.

E.g. if the USAF had gone further ahead and started thinking of procurement timetable for 750 ATFs as originally planned, then their peak production rate likely would've been higher than the 36 they had.


... Meaning I really don't think we can talk about what J-20s production rate might be unless we first suggest a production run we think the aircraft may have first.
 

stannislas

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@Bltizo, how does the WS-10C to WS-15 transition affect your analysis, if at all?
J-10a to j-10b then j-10c might be a good reference for this transition, j-20 may take a similar major upgrade when ws-15 is ready.

There was a short pause for j-10 production when upgrade to j-10b, but later j-10c reach a even higher production rate, so overall number of j-10 may not got affected that much
 

Inst

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@Bltizo

One of the things that should be considered is the strategic need for fighter aircraft; i.e, does China have enough J-20s operational to offset American, South Korean, and Japanese F-35s? Likewise, when you consider how many J-20s are needed to offset the F-35s, the 480 maximum number is way too low.

However, a simple solution is that it won't be the J-20 offsetting F-35s; i.e, given that China is developing multiple 5th gen fighter types, as well as Chengdu expressing an interest in developing the J-20 into a family of fighters, might it be the case that your estimates are only correct for J-20A / J-20B / J-20 (with WS-15)? In the Russian case, the production of Su-27 was quite limited and the Su-27 was eventually superseded by Su-30s and Su-35s. In the Chinese case, the full 5th gen inventory might only contain 190-480 J-20s, or even 600 J-20s, but the J-20s might be supplemented by strike variants of the J-20, the J-31, or by JH-XX for the air superiority mission, just as the F-22, after it was cancelled, was supplemented by hordes of the F-35 and eventually the NGAD.
 
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