J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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Deino

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...
  • it's expected the production rate increase over years, and by the 100th anniversary, the entire J-20 fleet would exceed or at least in the same level as the F-22
....


Sorry, me again, but isn't this strange? By the 100th anniversary would mean by 2049; At that date, the number of J-20s should be at the level of F-22, but also fifth generation types will make up the core of the PLAAF?

Those two assertions appear contradictory to me.

(via Twitter Alex Luck)
 

Deino

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The People's Liberation Army is marking the 91st anniversary of its founding on August 1, 2018.

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The People's Liberation Army was founded on 1 August 1927 during the Nanchang uprising

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Ok ... so the question is did he mean the PLAAF's 100th anniversary or just the PLA's?
 

silentlurker

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Hi, yes I was being brief with the translation, typing on phone. Agree with @stannislas, He first discusses the context of how long it was for the PLAAF to operationalize the J-10 and J11-B.

Then regarding J-20 numbers, he uses the phrase "不管怎么样", meaning "no matter what happens" (regarding J20 operationalization process presumably).

So I think this is him estimating lower bound as F-22 numbers by 2027
 

stannislas

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Sorry, me again, but isn't this strange? By the 100th anniversary would mean by 2049; At that date, the number of J-20s should be at the level of F-22, but also fifth generation types will make up the core of the PLAAF?

Those two assertions appear contradictory to me.

(via Twitter Alex Luck)
oh, the 100th anniversary is the PLA 100th anniversary.

I think your confusion is mainly due to the Chinese phasing, I translated slightly "too literal" on that sentence. "Core" is a very Chinese expression with a certain level of ambiguity, in that paraphrase should be something like "backbone" or "essence" in English, it has very little to do with the number.

Back to the J-20, my personal understanding is that he believes (regardless of the total number of J-20), by 2027, the PLA will be able to build their airforce, including their tactics, training, resources, everything, focusing on 5th gen fleet. Which is what I think they are doing right now.
 

by78

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Some screen grabs that nicely show off the size of the canards.

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Blitzo

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By the way, even if I agree with @Bltizo that this is still not a "definitive, irrefutable proof", it is an interesting hint, since it allows a very rough estimation of the J-20's production rate:

Given that LRIP started in late 2015 and by the end of 2026 the number of serial J-20s should have reached the number of F-22s built, that means that 187 J-20s must be built within roughly 10 years, what equals a rate of about 18-20 J-20s per year, which would ruin some fan-boys wet dreams, which state a rate of 30 to eve 60 per year.

So, to build on what other people have said, having watched that part of the video a few more times, my take is that the full part about J-20 production is better phrased as "Going forwards, production and procurement of J-20 will continue to expand, and by 2027 no matter what (happens), J-20 production has to be (will definitely) be the scale of F-22".

(brackets are my additional interpretations of how it may be better translated rather than using direct literal word for word translations).

"未来继续量产并且继续装备部队其年产量也会逐渐渐增加到2027年不管说怎么样产量也得跟美国F-22一个量级了"


Given the rest of the video and the context in which he specifically keeps referencing the 2027 date (obviously one of interest as the centenary of the PLA), using rather vague milestones but without giving specific numbers or specific dates (which btw is all very reasonable), I am pretty sure he's just using a "well known metric" to tell us what will be at least achievable by the PLA's centenary in 2027.

I.e., I think it is more like he's saying "by 2027, PLAAF will have more J-20s, but I can't give you an exact number or a proper projected number of my own, so here's a conservative number in relation to a milestone that we all know about (F-22 production run) which will definitely form a floor of an estimated confidence interval by 2027".



====

I think the guy is still very credible, and someone like him saying this rather than some guy on the internet makes me take him more seriously, but he also knows how to give very little "useful" information (which is deliberate obviously, and very reasonable as well).

However, the projections and predictions are all rather vague and somewhat conservative for a reason, and the way he specifically phrased the part about J-20 production by 2027 by saying "不管说怎么样" and "也得" is about as obvious as you can make it that this is meant to be a definite floor in his own estimates, just using a metric that we're all familiar with to make it easy for your average viewer to digest.
 

Atomicfrog

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So, to build on what other people have said, having watched that part of the video a few more times, my take is that the full part about J-20 production is better phrased as "Going forwards, production and procurement of J-20 will continue to expand, and by 2027 no matter what (happens), J-20 production has to be (will definitely) be the scale of F-22".

In any case, the number of f-22 is going down per attrition and age. J-20 will match number faster by the years. They will probably ramp-up production when ws-15 will be ready.
 
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