J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[00CuriousObserver]

An opinion from York. Maybe he's basing it on some info, but it is an opinion to consider nonetheless.

He thinks the prior for the total number of J-20s produced should be reconsidered and revised downwards, and that it might not surpass 1000 airframes. The reasoning is simple: 6th gens are on the horizon, and it would probably be more cost-effective to shift resources to 6th gens and UADFs.

 

[sequ]

An opinion from York. Maybe he's basing it on some info, but it is an opinion to consider nonetheless.

He thinks the prior for the total number of J-20s produced should be reconsidered and revised downwards, and that it might not surpass 1000 airframes. The reasoning is simple: 6th gens are on the horizon, and it would probably be more cost-effective to shift resources to 6th gens and UADFs.

Plausible, depends wholly on how well those UADFs perform.

 

[latenlazy]

An opinion from York. Maybe he's basing it on some info, but it is an opinion to consider nonetheless.

He thinks the prior for the total number of J-20s produced should be reconsidered and revised downwards, and that it might not surpass 1000 airframes. The reasoning is simple: 6th gens are on the horizon, and it would probably be more cost-effective to shift resources to 6th gens and UADFs.

At current pace we will likely get to 1000 airframes by 2030, and I don’t think we should expect 6th gen production to ramp up on a 1-2 year turnaround from LRIP, especially since the first few years of adoption will have to be spent on tactical development.