J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[gelgoog]

No kidding. And this is just the J-20 we are talking about. Once the J-35 starts production that will add to China's stealth fighter production numbers.

 

[Atomicfrog]

With all the cuts on US fighter fleet and production lately... not sure of these numbers anyway.

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Available fighters in theater is way more important...China will have many more j-20 than the US will have f-35 in the region.

 

[siegecrossbow]

With all the cuts on US fighter fleet and production lately... not sure of these numbers anyway.

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Available fighters in theater is way more important...China will have many more j-20 than the US will have f-35 in the region.

If we use Chinese liberal logic they must’ve been cutting back since China throttles the rare earth exports…

On a serious note I think the interest rate hike has taken a toll on acquisitions.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

It seems like such a massive blindspot I assume it has to be partly deliberate.

They could just be that stupid. That's always possible.

 

[GiantPanda]

They could just be that stupid. That's always possible.

Hanlon's Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”

 

[DexterM]

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With the DOD admitted availability rate of F-35 at 29% China only needs to have 1/3 the number of J-20 to be even with the F-35.

 

[FirebirdFan]

Do we have a stated number for the cost of a J-20.

 

[jli88]

With all the cuts on US fighter fleet and production lately... not sure of these numbers anyway.

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Available fighters in theater is way more important...China will have many more j-20 than the US will have f-35 in the region.

Pentagon acquisitions are different from actual production, often those numbers don't match because there can be delay in acquiring fighters because of fitting etc. Again, not an expert, maybe more knowledgeable members can correct.

Available fighters in theatre are indeed important, however production and hardened production is important too. US won WW2 primarily because it had huge industrial capacity in all modern armament and unlike German or Japanese production bases, didn't suffer from resource stress, or from bombardment on home soil. Neither Japan or Germany had any capacity to meaningfully project force towards CONUS, while their own production and industrial capacity was being bombarded daily.

Don't underestimate the US.

 

[AndrewS]

Do we have a stated number for the cost of a J-20.

Only speculation.

Old post below from a discussion a few months ago.

I'd go with a cost range of $70-86 Mn for a J-20, with a 70% confidence level.

The F-35A cost is $86 Mn (including engine) and has reached a floor.
My best guess is that the J-20 (including engine) costs $70-80 Mn.
However, there is a possibility that the J-20 is almost as expensive as an F-35A

And in another 4 years, the J-20 would drop another $10 Mn, as per the F-35 experience, because the Chinese are at an earlier stage of the production learning curve.

Methodology and all the assumptions below.

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We could use the F-35 as a reference, and specifically the Air Force airframe (excluding engines) as it is the most comparable to the J-20.

For 3 years from LRIP 5-7, the F-35 was at 35 per year. The cost dropped from $111 Mn to $98 Mn
Then it took another 4 years to ramp up to full rate production of 141 per year. The cost further dropped to about $80? Mn
After another 5 years to today, the cost has dropped to $70 Mn, and has reached a floor.
And the F-35 engine in 2023 costs another $16 Mn

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Back in 2018 (Chinese LRIP 3?), the J-20 cost was supposed to be $100-110 Mn.
And my guess is that we're near the end of the J-20 ramp to 100-120? per year.

If we go by the F-35 experience, that would imply the J-20 costs $70-80 Mn

So yes, the J-20 is a bigger aircraft with 2 engines rather than 1.
But there are lower overall costs in China, plus the Chinese are starting further behind, so there are more (and easier) opportunities to improve.

NB. This assumes engines are included in the J-20 costs.
But even if they aren't, the AL-31 (WS-10 equivalent) was $4Mn each back in 2013.
Even with inflation, you wouldn't expect 2 such engines to exceed the single F-35 engine cost of $16 Mn

The other caveat is that the final WS-15 engine still has to be put into mass production, and will presumably increase costs.

 

[AndrewS]

Not only do they seem confident in the production rate range they've described, but they also seem to not be willing to seriously entertain the idea of that production rate growing in the future either. It seems like such a massive blindspot I assume it has to be partly deliberate.

It's the idea of American exceptionalism, which many in the USA deeply believe as they've been told this since birth.

That the US is special and the USA is Number 1 in everything.