J-10 Thread IV

[kickars]

HOLY SHIT YOU ARE FINALLY BACK! Where have you been the last few years?

I know. Now we just need Dongfeng to come back. He hasn't signed in since 2009!

 

[plawolf]

I do think there will be a future variant of J-10. The F-16 program is a great proxy of what kind of path j-10 could take. As F-16 program progressed, it added a whole lot of weight with more electronics, payload and multi-role capabilities. So despite the fact that F-16V had more powerful engines, it is probably the least agile of any F-16s. Due to the fact that USAF has larger more capable multi-role aircraft, they never opted for F-16s past block 50/52. Similarly, J-10 is at a cross road where it has already grew to as large and capable as PLAAF probably need. There is no reason to develop a stealthy version of J-10 when that resource could be better spent improving J-20s or developing 6th gen fighter jet. If they don't intend to export more J-10s, I think they can just shut down its production in a couple of years. Any further program will be just updating avionics on the earlier J-10A/Bs.

However, I do think there will be some level of export for J-10 after this initial PAF order. I was look at PAF fleet today and noticed a significant number of F-7s/Mirages/F-16s that are really old in airframe and/or capabilities. I don't think it makes sense for PAF to replace all the F-16s with JF-17s. It seems to me that J-10s will eventually take over the role of F-16s in PAF. That would point to somewhere from 70 to 100 J-10s eventually serving with PAF. Basically, I'd expect PAF to order another 50 J-10s after this initial order. As we've seen with the JF-17 project, CAC is willing to make notable changes on orders of that size (second block of 50 looks different from the first block). I would expect J-10 to handle more multi-role tasks with PAF than with PLAAF. So, I see like a F-16E/F path here for the next variant of J-10. Over the next 3 or 4 years, there will probably be a higher thrust version of WS-10 coming out (maybe 15t with afterburners vs whatever it is now). The extra power over the current version would allow J-10 to have a more bulked up airframe to carry more missiles and possibly more powerful avionics. They could also potentially create a two seater with greater EW capability. This version of J-10 would not only be attractive for PAF but also Iranian Air Force or any other Air Force without enough money/access to F-15E/F-16V or EFT/Rafale. That's kind of the main difference between J-10C and those other aircraft right now. After all, LockMart is still producing F-16s after so many years. It helps China to sell J-10s to other countries. Aside from the commercial and political benefits, there are also plenty of industrial benefits in maintaining supply chain for J-10. Having ongoing J-10 production makes it easier for PLAAF to service and maintain its own J-10s.

I wouldn’t call time on the J10 just yet. Indeed, I personally don’t see China terminating the J10 or Flanker lines unless and until there is a resolution on the Taiwan question, which will probably happen before 2030 at the latest given current trends and geographical developments.

I actually see them shifting J10 production lines to Guizhou as a good sign for the J10 and that they intend to keep production going for many more years yet, as it would make little sense to move the line, with all the costs and training that would entail, for only a couple years more production. The new lines may need a couple years just to get up to full proficiency. If they wanted to wind down and terminate J10 production before 2025, they would have just kept the line at Chengdu.

I think ideally China would want to secure export orders and use those to keep the lines running at a high tempo in the background. But I think the PLAAF would be fine with continued J10C deliveries at the current annual production rate for another decade even, if sufficient export orders can’t be secured.

They still got a fair number of J7s and J8s to replace, and worse case, they can start using new built J10Cs to start replacing the oldest J10As or even just stand up new regiments or start issuing additional planes to existing J10 units as spares to boost the number of operationally deployable airframes to cover for maintenance downtimes etc.

 

[zbb]

I actually see them shifting J10 production lines to Guizhou as a good sign for the J10 and that they intend to keep production going for many more years yet, as it would make little sense to move the line, with all the costs and training that would entail, for only a couple years more production. The new lines may need a couple years just to get up to full proficiency. If they wanted to wind down and terminate J10 production before 2025, they would have just kept the line at Chengdu.

Great point

I think ideally China would want to secure export orders and use those to keep the lines running at a high tempo in the background. But I think the PLAAF would be fine with continued J10C deliveries at the current annual production rate for another decade even, if sufficient export orders can’t be secured.

They still got a fair number of J7s and J8s to replace, and worse case, they can start using new built J10Cs to start replacing the oldest J10As or even just stand up new regiments or start issuing additional planes to existing J10 units as spares to boost the number of operationally deployable airframes to cover for maintenance downtimes etc.

How many J10s are being produced a year currently? PLAAF still has 400+ J7s and J8s, I'd imagine most of them would be eventually replaced by J10s.

 

[tphuang]

HOLY SHIT YOU ARE FINALLY BACK! Where have you been the last few years?

personal reasons and I was a little burnt out by all this discussions.

I could see the J10 possibly becoming China's first "high tech" fighter export, compared to previous generations like J7s where it was sold mostly to poor countries and not exactly modern even at the time. It's incredible how far China has come in terms of avionics and missiles

Most likely to places like MENA where countries are distancing themselves from the US


With an enlarged wing like the Japanese F2 version of F16 perhaps?

Well, until they can make J-10 more multi-role like Rafale, it'd be hard to see them winning a lot of these orders from Arab countries. Assuming that F-35s don't become available to them, I think those countries are more likely to order a future land version of FC-31. Outside of Pakistan and Iran, I don't see too many obvious markets for J-10C. JF-17 is probably sufficient for China's traditional customers and countries like Argentina/Iraq.

Also, China needs to get more aggressive with showing J-10Cs around the world if they want to secure more export orders. The Russians are pitching Su-35s everywhere. At this point, I think J-10Cs would smoke Su-35s if they were actually pit 1v1 against each other. However, China hasn't marketed J-10Cs at all.

They still got a fair number of J7s and J8s to replace, and worse case, they can start using new built J10Cs to start replacing the oldest J10As or even just stand up new regiments or start issuing additional planes to existing J10 units as spares to boost the number of operationally deployable airframes to cover for maintenance downtimes etc.

Good thing you mentioned that. I took a look at Scramble ORBAT for both PLAAF and PLANAF to see which ones are still using J-7s and J-8s. I ignored the training brigades and non-fighter brigade (like J-8FR ones).

From that list, I only got 2 J-8 brigade/regiment left. 78th brigade with PLAAF and 15th PLANAF regiment. Since the new flanker deliveries for 2nd half of 2021 are still making their way into service, it would not be surprising if both of these regiments are gone by the end of this year.

There were definitely more J-7s around. I had 12 brigade and regiments.
J-7Gs
44th and 52nd brigade
J-7Es
86, 88, 97 and 132 brigade
20, 53rd air regiment
J-7H
57 and 63 brigade
J-7II
71st air regiment
J-7L
21st brigade

Due to less attention on these units and year end deliveries, it's possible that fewer than this many brigade/regiments are actually in service by the time the shuffle of equipments are completed. It's also possible that 1 or 2 of these units just go away in the next couple of years. If we assume that the average procurement level of PLAAF over the next 3 years to be 45 J-20s, 40 flankers and 25 J-10s, it would be capable replacing about 3 to 4 brigade/regiments a year. The J-7s could very well be all gone over this time frame. That's also factoring in some of the older Su-27/J-11 units getting replaced by J-16s.

As PLAAF budget continues to grow, it will be better for PLAAF to accelerate J-20 procurement rather than keep ordering more J-10s. After all, why max out at 50 a year? Why not keep investing in your production capabilities to do 70 or 80 a year?

 

[minusone]

j7 j8 still exists......so yeah, until all of those have been replaced, we are sticking with j10c still

 

[AndrewS]

I wouldn’t call time on the J10 just yet. Indeed, I personally don’t see China terminating the J10 or Flanker lines unless and until there is a resolution on the Taiwan question, which will probably happen before 2030 at the latest given current trends and geographical developments.

I actually see them shifting J10 production lines to Guizhou as a good sign for the J10 and that they intend to keep production going for many more years yet, as it would make little sense to move the line, with all the costs and training that would entail, for only a couple years more production. The new lines may need a couple years just to get up to full proficiency. If they wanted to wind down and terminate J10 production before 2025, they would have just kept the line at Chengdu.

Yes, I see the J-10 production line staying open till 2030 at a minimum.

I think ideally China would want to secure export orders and use those to keep the lines running at a high tempo in the background. But I think the PLAAF would be fine with continued J10C deliveries at the current annual production rate for another decade even, if sufficient export orders can’t be secured.

They still got a fair number of J7s and J8s to replace, and worse case, they can start using new built J10Cs to start replacing the oldest J10As or even just stand up new regiments or start issuing additional planes to existing J10 units as spares to boost the number of operationally deployable airframes to cover for maintenance downtimes etc.

My view is that J-10 production will drop down to say 12-24 aircraft per year, because procurement will mainly shift to the J-20 and J-31.
That allows for exports and a low level of J-10 additions to the Chinese Air Force.

Even then, the Air Force will be procuring at least 72 fighter aircraft per year (48+ J-20, 12+ Flankers, 12+ J-10), so the remaining J-7 and J-8 (200? aircraft in total) will all be replaced in the next 2-3 years.

And if they start retiring more aircraft, I would start with the Su-27/J-11A rather than the J-10A.
The Su-27/J-11A have worse avionics and radars, and are slightly older.

 

[AndrewS]

As PLAAF budget continues to grow, it will be better for PLAAF to accelerate J-20 procurement rather than keep ordering more J-10s. After all, why max out at 50 a year? Why not keep investing in your production capabilities to do 70 or 80 a year?

Personally, I expect SAC to be producing 30-50 J-31 airframes every year, starting around 2026-2027.
(The Naval J-31 should be starting LRIP this year, and this assumes an Air Force version already in development)

So every year, you've got:
J-20: 50
J-31: 30-50 (both Naval and Air Force)

My guess is that the J-31 will be 25-33% cheaper than a J-20 on a total lifecycle cost basis.
And you don't actually need a J-20 for every mission.

When the US is looking at 1000+ stealth fighters by 2030, I don't see much point in buying anything other than a low-level of J-10 and J-16. There are already 700+ 4.5 Gen fighters in the Chinese inventory and which are relatively new

 

[minusone]

My guess is that the J-31 will be 25-33% cheaper than a J-20 on a total lifecycle cost basis.
And you don't actually need a J-20 for every mission.

i doubt that......PLAAF wont lay their eyes on j-31, otherwise FC-31 would've been commissioned.

 

[Deino]

Personally, I expect SAC to be producing 30-50 J-31 airframes every year, starting around 2026-2027.
(The Naval J-31 should be starting LRIP this year, and this assumes an Air Force version already in development)

So every year, you've got:
J-20: 50
J-31: 30-50 (both Naval and Air Force)

My guess is that the J-31 will be 25-33% cheaper than a J-20 on a total lifecycle cost basis.
And you don't actually need a J-20 for every mission.

When the US is looking at 1000+ stealth fighters by 2030, I don't see much point in buying anything other than a low-level of J-10 and J-16. There are already 700+ 4.5 Gen fighters in the Chinese inventory and which are relatively new

Guys ... calm down ! We had never such a high production rate for the Flankers, so IMO ti think there will be 50 J-20s every year is off any rationale estimation.

 

[AndrewS]

Guys ... calm down ! We had never such a high production rate for the Flankers, so IMO ti think there will be 50 J-20s every year is off any rationale estimation.

If you look at the US military deliveries of F-35s (90? per year), a figure of 50 J-20 looks downright modest in comparison.

I see it as perfectly reasonable given the deterioration in US-China relations plus an increasing military budget.
We've seen even higher production increases with the Chinese Navy in recent years.

If I cost it out with a J-20 at $120Mn and an annual sustainment cost of $10Mn, that works out to:

Procurement of 50 J-20 per year = $6Bn per year
Sustainment for a fleet of 500 J-20 = $5Bn per year

That should be easily affordable.

Anyway, back on topic.