J-10 Thread IV

[Chavez]

The weapon still carry outside.

 

[ougoah]

The weapon still carry outside.

Why would anyone expect CAC to develop a completely new aircraft that looks like a stealthified J-10. If there is a J-10D program, it would probably look extremely identical to a J-10C.

When fanboys create fictional programs like a stealth J-10, the mainstream observer eventually picks up on it semi consciously. When they hear of rumours and hints there may be some J-10D upgrade, one out of maybe 100 might be inclined to express the opinion that it is a stealth version. This doesn't mean it will be and we should pay attention to those who give reasons why it may or may not be.

In this case, building a stealth version of J-10 is basically developing a new fighter, nearly from the ground up.

 

[blindsight]

Why would anyone expect CAC to develop a completely new aircraft that looks like a stealthified J-10. If there is a J-10D program, it would probably look extremely identical to a J-10C.

When fanboys create fictional programs like a stealth J-10, the mainstream observer eventually picks up on it semi consciously. When they hear of rumours and hints there may be some J-10D upgrade, one out of maybe 100 might be inclined to express the opinion that it is a stealth version. This doesn't mean it will be and we should pay attention to those who give reasons why it may or may not be.

In this case, building a stealth version of J-10 is basically developing a new fighter, nearly from the ground up.

I don't understand why CAC should develop a J-10D to begin with.

 

[xia3962243]

Indeed … so @huitong you should delete this from your page

Deino Can you tell me some of the more active military forums?​

 

[Atomicfrog]

Why would anyone expect CAC to develop a completely new aircraft that looks like a stealthified J-10. If there is a J-10D program, it would probably look extremely identical to a J-10C.

When fanboys create fictional programs like a stealth J-10, the mainstream observer eventually picks up on it semi consciously. When they hear of rumours and hints there may be some J-10D upgrade, one out of maybe 100 might be inclined to express the opinion that it is a stealth version. This doesn't mean it will be and we should pay attention to those who give reasons why it may or may not be.

In this case, building a stealth version of J-10 is basically developing a new fighter, nearly from the ground up.

Only ''stealth'' related version I would think would be adding the capacity to carry bigger jamming pods on J-10... and for a single engine aircraft without a long loitering capacity, it would be more or less useless.

 

[tphuang]

I do think there will be a future variant of J-10. The F-16 program is a great proxy of what kind of path j-10 could take. As F-16 program progressed, it added a whole lot of weight with more electronics, payload and multi-role capabilities. So despite the fact that F-16V had more powerful engines, it is probably the least agile of any F-16s. Due to the fact that USAF has larger more capable multi-role aircraft, they never opted for F-16s past block 50/52. Similarly, J-10 is at a cross road where it has already grew to as large and capable as PLAAF probably need. There is no reason to develop a stealthy version of J-10 when that resource could be better spent improving J-20s or developing 6th gen fighter jet. If they don't intend to export more J-10s, I think they can just shut down its production in a couple of years. Any further program will be just updating avionics on the earlier J-10A/Bs.

However, I do think there will be some level of export for J-10 after this initial PAF order. I was look at PAF fleet today and noticed a significant number of F-7s/Mirages/F-16s that are really old in airframe and/or capabilities. I don't think it makes sense for PAF to replace all the F-16s with JF-17s. It seems to me that J-10s will eventually take over the role of F-16s in PAF. That would point to somewhere from 70 to 100 J-10s eventually serving with PAF. Basically, I'd expect PAF to order another 50 J-10s after this initial order. As we've seen with the JF-17 project, CAC is willing to make notable changes on orders of that size (second block of 50 looks different from the first block). I would expect J-10 to handle more multi-role tasks with PAF than with PLAAF. So, I see like a F-16E/F path here for the next variant of J-10. Over the next 3 or 4 years, there will probably be a higher thrust version of WS-10 coming out (maybe 15t with afterburners vs whatever it is now). The extra power over the current version would allow J-10 to have a more bulked up airframe to carry more missiles and possibly more powerful avionics. They could also potentially create a two seater with greater EW capability. This version of J-10 would not only be attractive for PAF but also Iranian Air Force or any other Air Force without enough money/access to F-15E/F-16V or EFT/Rafale. That's kind of the main difference between J-10C and those other aircraft right now. After all, LockMart is still producing F-16s after so many years. It helps China to sell J-10s to other countries. Aside from the commercial and political benefits, there are also plenty of industrial benefits in maintaining supply chain for J-10. Having ongoing J-10 production makes it easier for PLAAF to service and maintain its own J-10s.

 

[sndef888]

I could see the J10 possibly becoming China's first "high tech" fighter export, compared to previous generations like J7s where it was sold mostly to poor countries and not exactly modern even at the time. It's incredible how far China has come in terms of avionics and missiles

Most likely to places like MENA where countries are distancing themselves from the US

So, I see like a F-16E/F path here for the next variant of J-10. Over the next 3 or 4 years, there will probably be a higher thrust version of WS-10 coming out (maybe 15t with afterburners vs whatever it is now). The extra power over the current version would allow J-10 to have a more bulked up airframe to carry more missiles and possibly more powerful avionics.

With an enlarged wing like the Japanese F2 version of F16 perhaps?

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

When I first started following PLAAF in 2004, J-10 was all the rage. It was my favorite aircraft. It was said they legendarily comprehensively defeated both Su-27 and Su-30MKK in training. When I mentioned this in other defence forums, nobody could believe it. We were all waiting for real photos of J-10s to come out. As time went on, its production level kept ramping up or slowing down depending on Russian engine supplies. They never seemed to have produced as many J-10s as they could have. When J-11B came out, it was said that J-10s finally lost its place as the best A2A fighter jet within PLAAF. Then we waited for a couple of more years before J-10B came out and the 10 series started to win out again. Even now, I'd think J-10C is probably as good in air defense as J-16s. Unfortunately, J-20 is now available. It is quite clearly a lot better than J-10C for that air superiority/interception role. J-10C also can't compete with J-16's size for the multi-role attacking aircraft or be used as an EW aircraft. As such, it has now been relegated to Guizhou for production.

Recently, I did a rough count of the number of J-10s in active service based on huitong's page and scramble orbat. I estimate about 320 J-10A/S + close to 250 J-10B/Cs. I think they were probably at close to 290 J-10A/S when J-10B production started, but added another 30 or so J-10S for the B/C regiment. With where it is right now, I think we might see another 50 to 100 J-10Cs getting produced by Guizhou before shifting to all export orders or shutting down. This really reminds me of 2006 to 2007 when they were producing the last batch of J-7Gs at CAC. That's quite sad for me since I've always exported its production run to reach close to 1000. As things stand, domestic flankers will probably end up with a larger production run than J-10 series due to its more superior multi-role potential.

I do wonder what is the future of this program. For USAF, they still have over 800 F-16s in service even though the last of Block 50/52s joined service in 2005. LockMart is still producing F-16Vs for the export market even now. It would make sense for PLAAF to keep the older J-10s in service as long as they are still serviceable. I don't see the point in a J-10D program unless it is aimed for the export market. I think they need to have a upgrade program so that J-10As can be fitted with AESA radars and fire the latest AAMs. That would really improve their combat ability. I don't know what kind of work would be needed to re-engine them with WS-10B. This should be done on all the J-10s that have a lot of service life still. They should also upgrade all the J-10Bs to J-10C level of avionics too. Beyond that, I do wonder about the future export potential for J-10s. Most of their traditional clients are more than happy with the capabilities offered by JF-17 Block 3. J-10C is probably not going to attract too many orders from air forces that already picked Eurocanard or later variants of F-15/16s. So it seems to me that only countries like Iran would be interested in J-10s. JF-17 production will probably go on for a lot longer than J-10. Another big surprise.

As it turned out, J-10 has been a great stepping stone for China and CAC. Without all the experience and talent from J-10 development, CAC would not have been able to churn out J-20 so quickly. The upgrade in avionics and incorporation of DSI intake from J-10A to J-10B gave CAC the experience to eventually implement an even better version of J-20. It's truly a credit to CAC that they have been able to move on from J-10s after less than 20 years of production, but also a little sad for the fans of the program.

HOLY SHIT YOU ARE FINALLY BACK! Where have you been the last few years?

 

[LCR34]

I don't understand why CAC should develop a J-10D to begin with.

J-10C still has range problem.

 

[Deino]

J-10C still has range problem.

Really? And how should a modified semi-stealthy airframe correct this?

In fact there are limited options, namely either increase fuel volume (aka larger wings, CFT, …) which in return contradict to „semi-stealthy“.

As such I see at best a mediocre update but without a full re-design or a true stealthy J-10C, which is IMO a waste of resources.