You don’t see the J-10 cutout under the Soaring Dragon drone?
J-10 Thread IV
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
You don’t see the J-10 cutout under the Soaring Dragon drone?
When I first started following PLAAF in 2004, J-10 was all the rage. It was my favorite aircraft. It was said they legendarily comprehensively defeated both Su-27 and Su-30MKK in training. When I mentioned this in other defence forums, nobody could believe it. We were all waiting for real photos of J-10s to come out. As time went on, its production level kept ramping up or slowing down depending on Russian engine supplies. They never seemed to have produced as many J-10s as they could have. When J-11B came out, it was said that J-10s finally lost its place as the best A2A fighter jet within PLAAF. Then we waited for a couple of more years before J-10B came out and the 10 series started to win out again. Even now, I'd think J-10C is probably as good in air defense as J-16s. Unfortunately, J-20 is now available. It is quite clearly a lot better than J-10C for that air superiority/interception role. J-10C also can't compete with J-16's size for the multi-role attacking aircraft or be used as an EW aircraft. As such, it has now been relegated to Guizhou for production.
Recently, I did a rough count of the number of J-10s in active service based on huitong's page and scramble orbat. I estimate about 320 J-10A/S + close to 250 J-10B/Cs. I think they were probably at close to 290 J-10A/S when J-10B production started, but added another 30 or so J-10S for the B/C regiment. With where it is right now, I think we might see another 50 to 100 J-10Cs getting produced by Guizhou before shifting to all export orders or shutting down. This really reminds me of 2006 to 2007 when they were producing the last batch of J-7Gs at CAC. That's quite sad for me since I've always exported its production run to reach close to 1000. As things stand, domestic flankers will probably end up with a larger production run than J-10 series due to its more superior multi-role potential.
I do wonder what is the future of this program. For USAF, they still have over 800 F-16s in service even though the last of Block 50/52s joined service in 2005. LockMart is still producing F-16Vs for the export market even now. It would make sense for PLAAF to keep the older J-10s in service as long as they are still serviceable. I don't see the point in a J-10D program unless it is aimed for the export market. I think they need to have a upgrade program so that J-10As can be fitted with AESA radars and fire the latest AAMs. That would really improve their combat ability. I don't know what kind of work would be needed to re-engine them with WS-10B. This should be done on all the J-10s that have a lot of service life still. They should also upgrade all the J-10Bs to J-10C level of avionics too. Beyond that, I do wonder about the future export potential for J-10s. Most of their traditional clients are more than happy with the capabilities offered by JF-17 Block 3. J-10C is probably not going to attract too many orders from air forces that already picked Eurocanard or later variants of F-15/16s. So it seems to me that only countries like Iran would be interested in J-10s. JF-17 production will probably go on for a lot longer than J-10. Another big surprise.
As it turned out, J-10 has been a great stepping stone for China and CAC. Without all the experience and talent from J-10 development, CAC would not have been able to churn out J-20 so quickly. The upgrade in avionics and incorporation of DSI intake from J-10A to J-10B gave CAC the experience to eventually implement an even better version of J-20. It's truly a credit to CAC that they have been able to move on from J-10s after less than 20 years of production, but also a little sad for the fans of the program.
Recently, I did a rough count of the number of J-10s in active service based on huitong's page and scramble orbat. I estimate about 320 J-10A/S + close to 250 J-10B/Cs. I think they were probably at close to 290 J-10A/S when J-10B production started, but added another 30 or so J-10S for the B/C regiment. With where it is right now, I think we might see another 50 to 100 J-10Cs getting produced by Guizhou before shifting to all export orders or shutting down. This really reminds me of 2006 to 2007 when they were producing the last batch of J-7Gs at CAC. That's quite sad for me since I've always exported its production run to reach close to 1000. As things stand, domestic flankers will probably end up with a larger production run than J-10 series due to its more superior multi-role potential.
I do wonder what is the future of this program. For USAF, they still have over 800 F-16s in service even though the last of Block 50/52s joined service in 2005. LockMart is still producing F-16Vs for the export market even now. It would make sense for PLAAF to keep the older J-10s in service as long as they are still serviceable. I don't see the point in a J-10D program unless it is aimed for the export market. I think they need to have a upgrade program so that J-10As can be fitted with AESA radars and fire the latest AAMs. That would really improve their combat ability. I don't know what kind of work would be needed to re-engine them with WS-10B. This should be done on all the J-10s that have a lot of service life still. They should also upgrade all the J-10Bs to J-10C level of avionics too. Beyond that, I do wonder about the future export potential for J-10s. Most of their traditional clients are more than happy with the capabilities offered by JF-17 Block 3. J-10C is probably not going to attract too many orders from air forces that already picked Eurocanard or later variants of F-15/16s. So it seems to me that only countries like Iran would be interested in J-10s. JF-17 production will probably go on for a lot longer than J-10. Another big surprise.
As it turned out, J-10 has been a great stepping stone for China and CAC. Without all the experience and talent from J-10 development, CAC would not have been able to churn out J-20 so quickly. The upgrade in avionics and incorporation of DSI intake from J-10A to J-10B gave CAC the experience to eventually implement an even better version of J-20. It's truly a credit to CAC that they have been able to move on from J-10s after less than 20 years of production, but also a little sad for the fans of the program.
B / C seems to be longer than A due to longer nose because of different radar shape
I think a J-10A upgrade to an AESA isn't really required, given the number of other fighters that can or will be able to fire PL-15 AAMs.
There are about 250 J-10A which can still fire the PL-12. That is more than enough to handle 2nd tier fighter aircraft in various Air Forces next to China.
In comparison, there are already the 720 aircraft below which can fire PL-15s:
J-16: 200+
J-10C: 170+
J-20: 100+
J-11B: 250 (if all upgraded)
Plus you have new fighters still being added every year which can fire the latest AAMs.
In fact I have the very bad feeling that this is nothing but a Trumpeter 1/48 scale model! just look at the typical RAM-powered what-if PL-21 or whatever it is called.
I personally don’t think pl-21,if it actually exists ,would be look like that, with that diameter it won’t fit into any 5th gen fighter (Chinese ones) , and it looks like an early meteor concept with four small stabilizer fins, which makes no sense except it’s actually an anti radiation munition
You can even see the ‘Honor’ phone box branding below the model.