J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)


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plawolf

Brigadier
...Something which America has promised Taiwan, in the event they declare independence from China, officially!
America has done nothing of the kind.

In fact, America has been deliberately vague in defining what it's military commitments are to Taiwan as it fears that clearly defining that relationship would lead to war.

If it said it will guarantee Taiwan's safety no matter what, the next pro-independence candidate to get into office will promptly declare independence on the back of that guarantee, and China would invade.

If it said it will not come to Taiwan's aid, then China will attack.

Or so the thinking in Washington goes at least.

In reality, what America's military obligations are to Taiwan is to be defined as best serves America's interest. As things stand, America's best interests are served by remaining vague. But if that status quo is broken, either by a declaration of independence from Taiwan, or a PLA attack, then the American president at the time will decide what America is obliged to do based on the projected outcome and cost of getting directly involved in a shooting war with China.

If it looks likely that America will loose, or only win at unacceptably high cost, then the American president will in all likelihood declare that America never had any obligation to come to Taiwan's aid if attacked, issue all the usual condemnations and urge an end of hostilities and secretly hope the war ends quickly so they present China with 'reset' button (hopefully with the correct translation this time) and get back to business as usual before too long.
 

latenlazy

Colonel
During the time, when the British Empire was a superpower, the rule was that whom so ever controlled the Sea, dominated everything. Then the age American Empire came to fore, the rules changed and it is whom so ever controlled the Seas and Skies, dominated everything.

For China, limiting its sphere of influence and power projection to just Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, is not in any way going to be a challenge for the United States. This is because, in order to be a global power, China needs to have enough clout, both economically and militarily, to exert influence in the region. The reason for this is simple, if China is not able to do so, the rule of the jungle applies. The strongest devour the weak.

Apart from a power military, China also requires stable, strong (at least in their region) allies. And that too, allies which are fiercely aligned to it's friend, China. This is only possible, when China has the capability to step in to defend its ally. Something which America has promised Taiwan, in the event they declare independence from China, officially! It is also only possible, if China expands its economic growth and prosperity out of the shadows of dependence on America and Europe.

Coming back to the subject, China's ability to field a large, well equipped and technologically advance PLAAF, PLAN & PLANAF, would be the deciding factor in it being able to counter American influence in its own backyard, as well as deep into the Pacific or Indian Oceans.
Except, I don't think China's looking to challenge the US globally.
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
^^ Well, it ought to, considering the fact that America is currently eroding Chinese and Russian influence in the Central Asia Republics. The U.S has bases in Kyrgyzstan, as is hindustan (india) Tajikistan. Also, it is important to know that Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan) is rich in Gas, Oil and other valuable resources. And we already have evidence that China recognizes the importance of the Central Asian Republics, because these countries are part of the S.C.O (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
 

latenlazy

Colonel
^^ Well, it ought to, considering the fact that America is currently eroding Chinese and Russian influence in the Central Asia Republics. The U.S has bases in Kyrgyzstan, as is hindustan (india) Tajikistan. Also, it is important to know that Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan) is rich in Gas, Oil and other valuable resources. And we already have evidence that China recognizes the importance of the Central Asian Republics, because these countries are part of the S.C.O (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
Well, for one the Central Asian Republics are regional to China, so that's not global, and for two, while China does have to compete with the US for influence globally, military conflict is not always necessary for that competition.

Right now China's only military concern regarding the US is that of breaking containment. Anything else does nothing for Chinese interests.
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
Well, for one the Central Asian Republics are regional to China, so that's not global, and for two, while China does have to compete with the US for influence globally, military conflict is not always necessary for that competition.

Right now China's only military concern regarding the US is that of breaking containment. Anything else does nothing for Chinese interests.
China's interests are everywhere, from Libya, Sudan, Nigeria, to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan. Over dependence of it's manufacturing exports to U.S & E.U, has seen the recessions there, directly effect China's own economy. Which is why economic cooperation with countries like Sudan, Nigeria, which are primarily alternative Oil sources, rendered immunity to China from any conflict in the Middle East. However, consistent meddling of the West in Sudan and Libya, have now limited China's access to alternative Oil sources.

Military strength and economic diversity go hand in hand, where the ability to ward off potential bully nation due to military might, is a very cost effective way of ensuring security of where China's interests lay.

Take the example of Syria and how it is important to Russia. Where Syria signed a deal with Russia to permit the Russian Navy to operate out of it's port city of Tartus. Russia has always sought an alternative to the Crimean Naval Base, which falls under the Ukrainian territory. Also, Russia and Ukraine signed a treaty whereby Russian Navy's Black Sea could lease Ukrainian Base until 2017. Irrespective of how corrupt or not corrupt the Assad Regime may be, the downfall of this regime would bring about an end to the Russian ambitions of having permanent Naval base in the Mediterranean.

I can go on and on about how important it is for China to forge strong ties around the world and ward-off Western hegemony, that seems to be spreading, day by day.

So it would be very naive of one to say that China shouldn't care for global influence, when it's rivals (U.S, U.K & E.U) are seeking to do just that plus erode China's ties with other key countries.

In the end, we come back again to the argument that China ought to treat itself as a Superpower, one which has a respectable sized Air Force, Navy and Strategic Forces. And respectable sized is NOT necessarily mean't to be matching the U.S, fighter for fighter, tank for tank or carrier for carrier. PLAAF, PLAN & PLA should at least fleet force levels which have the strength in numbers and mobility to deploy anywhere in the world, particularly where it's allies are and its overseas military bases are.

Conflict isn't a must, when the rival knows that mutual destruction is the end result.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
I think the long development time is partly down to CAC shifting their primary focus onto the J20, and partly down to how big of an improvement they have made on the J10B.

With IRST, AESA radar, DIS, all new EW suit, new engine, and almost certainly all new cockpit (the most obvious new feat would be the new wide angle holographic HUD), we are pretty much talking about a brand new aircraft here, certainly in all the fields that matter.

I always thought that the J10A was in the eurocanards league, but only near the bottom of the pile, maybe just above the Gripen in overall capabilities, but very likely behind the Typhoon and Rafale. But I think the J10B can really give the eurocanard top dogs a good run for their money in any and every field.

Also, I think that the PLAAF is pretty confident that they have enough modern fighters to handle any possible military scenario, up to and including taking Taiwan, so they are less concerned about getting fighters into regiments asap as they were with the J10A, and are now more concerned with having a definitive J10B standard established first before they commit to a big buy to save from having to re-manufacture early block aircraft as has been the case with incremental block development for the Typhoon and Rafale.
In A2A, the J-10B incorporates all of the upgrades seen on the Rafale and Eurofighter, and even to further extent, however in the A2G role the J-10B will be at a disadvantage.
 

challenge

Banned Idiot
In A2A, the J-10B incorporates all of the upgrades seen on the Rafale and Eurofighter, and even to further extent, however in the A2G role the J-10B will be at a disadvantage.
during the mid 90's China send a number test pilot to france ,they flew Mirage -2000, eurofighter,and rafale (and possible tornado)according to there assessment, they have praise for euofighter man machine interface,by far there biggest impression was rafale.her flight control system navigation and weapon control. everything about the aircraft is "pure perfection."
according to one test pilot,he suggest the PLAAF choose rafale over SU-30/Su-27.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
during the mid 90's China send a number test pilot to france ,they flew Mirage -2000, eurofighter,and rafale (and possible tornado)according to there assessment, they have praise for euofighter man machine interface,by far there biggest impression was rafale.her flight control system navigation and weapon control. everything about the aircraft is "pure perfection."
according to one test pilot,he suggest the PLAAF choose rafale over SU-30/Su-27.
Source?

I have not heard to any reports that PLAAF test pilots every flew the Typhone or Rafale. Certainly not in the mid 1990s as the Typhoon only first flew in 1994. There was no possibility of any export at that time because of the arms ban. The Rafale might have first flew as early as 86, but again, there has never been any reports that PLAAF pilots flew it, and it would be extra unusual for them to have done so as the Rafale would have still been in development by 1989, and any later there would have been no point in test flying it or the possibility of buying it until much much later.

PLAAF pilots did fly the M2K, and loved that, but the French won't budge on price, and it was just too much for China at the time to buy them in any useful numbers so no deal.
 
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