ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

delft

Brigadier
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ISIS suffers over 40 casualties in failed Deir Ezzor offensive
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15/05/2016
The Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) launched another massive assault inside the provincial capital of the Deir Ezzor Governorate on Saturday, targeting several sites that were under the control of the Syrian Armed Forces.

ISIS began the offensive by seizing the Al-Assad Hospital, SyriaTel Hill, Sadkop Oil Factory, Deir Ezzor Cemetery, Fire Brigade Base, and Grain Silos from the Syrian Armed Forces in Deir Ezzor City.

Following their success at the aforementioned sites, ISIS attempted to capture the Firat University buildings inside Deir Ezzor City; however, this would prove to be a fatal error for the terrorist group as they found themselves spread too thin and susceptible to a Syrian Army counter-attack.

The Syrian Arab Army’s 104th Airborne Brigade of the Republican Guard – backed by the National Defense Forces (NDF) and Hashd Al-Sha’abi (Iraqi paramilitary) – would indeed launch a counter-assault in western Deir Ezzor to recapture all of the sites they lost to ISIS.

In a matter of two hours, the Syrian Armed Forces would recover all of the sites they lost, including the Al-Assad Hospital.

ISIS’ offensive on Saturday proved costly, as they reportedly lost 40+ combatants during their failed assault in Deir Ezzor City.

A lot is happening in Deir Ezzor and in and around Aleppo. Terrorists continue to fire
shells and rockets against the population of Aleppo. Then there is Turkey that plays a major role in supplying the terrorists. Ambassador Bhadrakumar begins a recent post (
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, May 13,
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) with
Turkey may have begun poking at the Russian bear in its lair in Syria. Last weekend, a contingent of Turkish special forces crossed into Syria for what appears to have been a limited operation to test the Russian reflexes. It’s unclear whether Russian intelligence spotted it but decided to do nothing, or whether it knew nothing about it until the media reports appeared. (
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)


At any rate, President Recep Erdogan has now gone a step further to say his country is preparing to “clear” the regions inside northern Syria bordering Turkey. His excuse is that Turkey faces cross-border fire from the Islamic State. It’s probably an alibi, since reports indicate that Turkey is continuing to supply the extremist groups in Syria with fresh fighters and military supplies. (
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It seems likely that the current increase in activity is coordinated by Turkey.
 
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...
that would be similar to what the Government forces did during against the last massive assault in the end of January: if I recall correctly (and if it makes sense what I'm saying :) after the initial breach of their defenses, they had been counterattacking for two(?) days, but in the end were pushed back, and the outer perimeters of both "137 Base" and the Airport became ... narrow

actually a moment ago I saw a report saying the Government counter-strike went as far as "Turdah Mountain" in the middle-bottom below:
gck6G.jpg

which would be beyond the initial position in the south!? I mean before ISIL attacked (at least according to my pessimistic post:
Yesterday at 10:02 PM
...
WXSJ.jpg
  1. ISIL broke the perimeter in the south, took over "Tal Kroum" hill and took it toward "Panorama Base", but then toward the downtown; in addition
  2. ISIL breached the defenses in the parts of the downtown which I don't know yet from north-west; in addition
  3. ISIL breached the defenses in the parts of the downtown which I don't know yet from north-east
theoretically it's possible to divide the defenders this way, but I based it mostly on the source I don't know

anyway the counter-strike should mean the forces from "137 Base" and the Airport are reconnected, which is necessary for the defense to hold up, I guess
 
Could Different Borders
Have Saved the Middle East?

THERE probably aren’t many things that the Islamic State,
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and
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agree on, but there is one: the pernicious influence of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, a secret plan for dividing up the Middle East signed by France and Britain, 100 years ago this week. It has become conventional wisdom to argue, as Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
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, that the Middle East’s problems stem from “artificial lines, creating artificial states made up of totally distinct ethnic, religious, cultural groups.”

That Western imperialism had a malignant influence on the course of Middle Eastern history is without a doubt.But is Sykes-Picot the right target for this ire?

The borders that exist today — the ones the Islamic State claims to be erasing — actually emerged in 1920 and were modified over the following decades. They reflect not any oneplan but a series of opportunistic proposals by competing strategists in Paris and London as well as local leaders in the Middle East. For whatever problems those schemes have caused, the alternative ideas for dividing up the region probably weren’t much better. Creating countries out of diverse territories is a violent, imperfect process.

Sykes and Picot Hatch Their Plan
In May 1916, Mark Sykes, a British diplomat, and François Georges-Picot, his French counterpart, drew up an agreement to ensure that once the Ottoman Empire was defeated in World War I, their countries would get a fair share of the spoils.

Both countries awarded themselves direct control over areas in which they had particular strategic and economic interests. France had commercial ties to the Levant, and had long cultivated the region’s Christians. Britain intended to secure trade and communication routes to India through the Suez Canal and the Persian Gulf.

To the extent the Sykes-Picot plan made an attempt to account for the local ethnic, religious or culutural groups, or their ideas about the future, it offered a vague promise to create one or several Arab states — under French and British influence, of course.

Faisal Dreams of a United Arab Kingdom
In March 1920, Faisal bin Hussein, who led the Arab armies in their British-supported revolt against the Ottomans during World War I, became the leader of the independent Arab Kingdom of Syria, based in Damascus. His ambitious borders stretched across modern-day Syria, Jordan, Israel and parts of Turkey. (But not Iraq.)

Would Faisal’s map have been an authentic alternative to the externally imposed borders that came in the end? We’ll never know. The French, who opposed his plan, defeated his army in July.

But even if they hadn’t, Faisal’s territorial claims would have put him in direct conflict with Maronite Christians pushing for independence in what is today Lebanon, with Jewish settlers who had begun their Zionist project in Palestine, and with Turkish nationalists who sought to unite Anatolia.

France Divides ‘Syria.’
When France took control of what is now Syria, the plan in Paris was to split up the region into smaller statelets under French control.These would have been divided roughly along ethnic, regional and sectarian lines: The French envisioned a state for Alawites, another for Druse, another for Turks and two more centered around Syria’s biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo.

This cynical divide-and-conquer strategy was intended to pre-empt Arab nationalists’ calls for a “greater Syria.” Today, five years into Syria’s civil war, a similar division of the country has been suggested as a more authentic alternative to the supposedly artificial Syrian state. But when the French tried to divide Syria almost a century ago, the region’s residents, inspired by ideas of Syrian or Arab unity, pushed by new nationalist leaders, resisted so strongly that France abandoned the plan.

Americans to the Rescue?
In 1919, President Woodrow Wilson sent a delegation to devise a better way to divide the region. Henry King, a theologian, and Charles Crane, an industrialist, conducted hundreds of interviews in order to prepare a map in accordance with the ideal of national self-determination.

Was this a missed opportunity to draw the region’s “real” borders? Doubtful. After careful study, King and Crane realized how difficult the task was: They split the difference between making Lebanon independent or making it part of Syria with a proposal for “limited autonomy.” They thought the Kurds might be best off incorporated into Iraq or even Turkey. And they were certain that Sunnis and Shiites belonged together in a unified Iraq. In the end, the French and British ignored the recommendations. If only they had listened, things might have turned out more or less the same.
source:
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I read it because I come from the territory with an unnatural border (Czech-Polish though), will search for news now ...
 
... will search for news now ...
... and I should try to clarify
Saturday at 8:50 PM
...
Cibb26JVAAESaPu.jpg
(don't ask me what that "island to the left within Government territory" is supposed to mean ...
as I read in several (Russian/English) sources ISIL on Saturday had been able to sneak in and temporarily take over the area to the east in the map below (for example the hospital, campus):
ciqEn.jpg
and since that area is relatively distant from "137 Base" and the Airport, this event left me (and some other kibitzers :) with an impression as if the defense of
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had fallen apart; as of now, it didn't
 

delft

Brigadier
Could Different Borders
Have Saved the Middle East?


source:
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I read it because I come from the territory with an unnatural border (Czech-Polish though), will search for news now ...
Very much OT
The borders of Belgium are even more odd. Belgium was added to the Netherlands by the Congress of Vienna in 1815 to have a strong country to the North of France. When the Belgians rebelled against the Dutch king (1830-1839) they ended up with large parts of the provinces of Luxembourg and Limburg with the other part of Luxembourg becoming an Arch Duchy with the Dutch king being the Arch Duke, as long as the Netherlands had a king, and a sliver of Limburg remaining in the Netherlands because the governor of Maastricht didn't surrender to the Belgians.
Maastricht and its environs had been a part of the Netherlands from the 17th century to help defend the Netherlands against frequent French invasions. I once lived in a village near Maastricht, by then incorporated into a larger town, that had been divided at that time with the larger part belonging to the Netherlands and a small part, with the Catholic church, being ruled from first Spanish and later Austrian ruled Brussels.
BTW there are still eleven very small Belgian enclaves in the Netherlands. It seems some houses actually stand in both countries, on a border.
 
(attempting
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situation update)

I commented on the reported counter-strike by the Government:
Sunday at 3:59 PM
that would be similar to what the Government forces did during against the last massive assault in the end of January: if I recall correctly (and if it makes sense what I'm saying :) after the initial breach of their defenses, they had been counterattacking for two(?) days, but in the end were pushed back, and the outer perimeters of both "137 Base" and the Airport became ... narrow

...
and from what I figured, ISIL is in "Panorama Base" below (at some point I'll redraw that map or something :) but not now):
Saturday at 10:02 PM
based on for example pictures from there I saw in Twitter; if it was true, it would mean ISIL gained an important area (which I'm guessing could be used to disrupt "137 Base" - Airport mutual support) EDIT during the latest offensive (started last Friday)
 
Last edited:

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Super Moderator
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Registered Member
I think from that through the fog of the last few months, that a little light is starting to shine and that in no small part, this is due to a full appreciation of the operational limits of the SAA.

There was no doubt a desire to Capitalise on the recent successes such as Palmyra and to build the impression of an unstoppable Juggernaut, recapturing territory on every front to which attention was turned and to achieve new major Strategic victories in Latakia, Aleppo and Deir Ezor.

The truth however is that the limited manpower and long front lines of the SAA, has meant great vulnerability to simultaneous (synchronised?) counter attacks on multiple fronts, which had brought all Strategic offensive activity to shuddering close.

While attention was switched to damage control and the recovery of recently lost territory, it seems the appreciation of reality has become unavoidable.

In order to continue with Strategic Offensives, the SAA needs more free manpower and shorter (less) front lines.
It is in that light that I think the current offensives around Damascus are the tactical reality at present.
The besieged rebel enclaves such as East Ghouta and Darraya require massive quantities of troops to keep contained and; given the proximity to the Capital, are presumably tie up many of the best soldiers.

The news today is of the effective implosion of the Southern Spur of the East Ghouta rebel area and also news of massive SAA troop movements to Darayya.
It does sound as though Strategic advances have been put on hold for Tactical operations to collapse these rebel enclaves once and for all and to free up the tens of thousands of troops currently tied up by the sieges.

It is undeniable that this manpower is sorely needed elsewhere, if real further strategic advances are to realised.
 

delft

Brigadier
I think from that through the fog of the last few months, that a little light is starting to shine and that in no small part, this is due to a full appreciation of the operational limits of the SAA.

There was no doubt a desire to Capitalise on the recent successes such as Palmyra and to build the impression of an unstoppable Juggernaut, recapturing territory on every front to which attention was turned and to achieve new major Strategic victories in Latakia, Aleppo and Deir Ezor.

The truth however is that the limited manpower and long front lines of the SAA, has meant great vulnerability to simultaneous (synchronised?) counter attacks on multiple fronts, which had brought all Strategic offensive activity to shuddering close.

While attention was switched to damage control and the recovery of recently lost territory, it seems the appreciation of reality has become unavoidable.

In order to continue with Strategic Offensives, the SAA needs more free manpower and shorter (less) front lines.
It is in that light that I think the current offensives around Damascus are the tactical reality at present.
The besieged rebel enclaves such as East Ghouta and Darraya require massive quantities of troops to keep contained and; given the proximity to the Capital, are presumably tie up many of the best soldiers.

The news today is of the effective implosion of the Southern Spur of the East Ghouta rebel area and also news of massive SAA troop movements to Darayya.
It does sound as though Strategic advances have been put on hold for Tactical operations to collapse these rebel enclaves once and for all and to free up the tens of thousands of troops currently tied up by the sieges.

It is undeniable that this manpower is sorely needed elsewhere, if real further strategic advances are to realised.
According to the BBC website (
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) there has been weeks of infighting among the rebels near Damascus. The recently announced offensives near Aleppo and Deir-Ezzor might have been meant to assure those rebels they could safely do so. BBC says when the offensive came the area was taken in hours.
 
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