ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

thunderchief

Senior Member
Russia has no logistic capacity to sustain 150 000 troops abroad, especially not in Syria . But more modest number of let's say 15-20 000 personnel is possible if not probable . They could be used as shock troops to break trough most fortified positions of rebels, mop-up jobs would be left over to current composition of SAA and militias.
Biggest question how would countries supporting various rebels factions react to that . Would they let this happen or would they try to militarily counter this move by Moscow. In later case, we could be dangerously close to serious conflict, even world war .
 

dtulsa

Junior Member
I don't think the western powers will not interfere unless they cross into Iraq then things might and I say might get interesting but it kind of has a ring of Hitler's invasion of the Cheklosvocklia prior to WWII time will tell
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I think the western media has gone into sensationalism overdrive again.

Just because Russia is mobilising 150k reservists is no indication it is going to deploy all 150k of them in Syria.

Besides, even if Russia was to send in ground troops for direct combat missions, they would not be sending in green conscripts, but rather their elite, professional forces.

The conscripts would have been mobilised to take over the duties of, and to provide cover for the elite troops Moscow is likely to be considering deploying over.

Since you are replacing elite troops with conscripts, you likely want a lot more conscripts than the elite troops they are replacing to achieve the same combat efficiency and readiness levels.

If Russia is considering sending in ground troops, I think 50k would be the maximum they would consider deploying realistically. Even that will probably severely test Russia's logistics to deploy and support abroad.

Turkey is a non-starter, so I think the Russians are going to need the Iraqis on board before they could even consider ground operations.
 

delft

Brigadier
It is possible that Russia will start to use more air bases which each would need a few thousand men for protection and services. I do not think other Russian forces will be introduced as enough forces can be provided by Syria, Iraq, Hezbollah and Iran. There are now enough experienced fighters to help train any increase necessary. Any party who would be unhappy with such an increase can hasten to agree to a cease fire to make it unnecessary.
 

ShahryarHedayat

Junior Member
My be i should put this post on What the Heck thread!



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Ankara--- Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization, known by the MİT acronym, has drawn a lot of attention and criticism for his controversial comments about ISIS.

Mr. Hakan Fidan, Turkish President's staunchest ally, condemned Russian military intervention in Syria, accusing Moscow of trying to 'smother' Syria's Islamist revolution and serious breach of United Nations law.

“ISIS is a reality and we have to accept that we cannot eradicate a well-organized and popular establishment such as the Islamic State; therefore I urge my western colleagues to revise their mindset about Islamic political currents, put aside their cynical mentalité and thwart Vladimir Putin's plans to crush Syrian Islamist revolutionaries,” Anadolu News Agency quoted Mr. Fidan as saying on Sunday.

Fidan further added that in order to deal with the vast number of foreign Jihadists craving to travel to Syria, it is imperative that ISIS must set up a consulate or at least a political office in Istanbul. He underlined that it is Turkey’s firm belief to provide medical care for all injured people fleeing Russian ruthless airstrikes regardless of their political or religious affiliation.

Recently as the fierce clashes between Russian army and ISIS terrorists raging across the war-torn Syria, countless number of ISIS injured fighters enter the Turkish territory and are being admitted in the military hospitals namely those in Hatay Province. Over the last few days, the Syrian army with the support of Russian air cover could fend off ISIS forces in strategic provinces of Homs and Hama.

Emile Hokayem, a Washington-based Middle East analyst said that Turkey's Erdoğan and his oil-rich Arab allies have dual agendas in the war on terror and as a matter of fact they are supplying the Islamist militants with weapons and money, thus Russian intervention is considered a devastating setback for their efforts to overthrow Syrian secular President Assad.

Hokayem who was speaking via Skype from Washington, D.C. highlighted the danger of Turkish-backed terrorist groups and added that what is happening in Syria cannot be categorized as a genuine and popular revolution against dictatorship but rather it is a chaos orchestrated by Erdoğan who is dreaming to revive this ancestor's infamous Ottoman Empire.

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
It is possible that Russia will start to use more air bases which each would need a few thousand men for protection and services. I do not think other Russian forces will be introduced as enough forces can be provided by Syria, Iraq, Hezbollah and Iran. There are now enough experienced fighters to help train any increase necessary. Any party who would be unhappy with such an increase can hasten to agree to a cease fire to make it unnecessary.

Russia using more air bases would not only be possible, but be necessary if they really do deploy ground combat troops to take part in the fight directly.

As for relying on the existing forces already fighting on the ground, well I think that may be asking a bit too much of them.

Assad's forces have never been that great, and they have haemorrhaged a lot of men and materials already in this long and bitter war. I have heard that they hardly have any strategic reserves left, and that line troops pretty much never get rotated off to rest and regroup.

That is an unsustainable situation, and if they push the troops too hard and too long, it may backfire and have significant fighting units simply collapse and implode from accumulated attrition and fatigue.

I think fresh Russian and maybe French troops would be able to end this war far quicker and more decisively that relying on Assad's forces and other non-regular outfits already deployed. You want to destroy ISIS after all, not just drive it somewhere else. As such, you want a lightening war, not a slow grind.

I would send in foreign troops to launch a blitzkrieg push right along the Turkish boarder as the opening move, with both a large scale amphibious assault as well as a convectional push from Iraq closing in from both sides and meeting in the middle.

The goal is to cut-off ISIS's supply lines and escape routes as fast as possible to minimise the number of fighters and leaders who could escape as they see the tide shifting decisively against them.

You will also want to secure the board with Iraq (I assume the Israelis can keep ISIS out all by themselves), basically encircle as many ISIS fighters and leadership as possible, and then kill them all.

If possible, I would use foreign troops for all of this, especially Russian and French, as they have a blood debt to pay against ISIS, so would not be tempted by bribes as other forces might be (do not want to repeat America's mistakes at Bora Bora with OBL).

This allows Assad's forces to rest and regroup, and I would use the refreshed and consolidated Syrian government forces as occupation troops to secure, police and hold territory the foreign troops have cleared.

This would be using the assets available to the best of their strengths and abilities.

It should also make it that much more unlikely an insurgency war would ensure and be successful, since the Syrian government forces are locals, so would be far better placed at policing actions then foreigners who don't speak the language and don't know the customs.

There will always been the inevitable screw ups and mistakes in the battles that will cause civilian casualties. Having a force who was not involved in taking a city police it should also reduce a lot of the friction and temptations to seek revenges that often plague the aftermath of battles to take population centres.
 

delft

Brigadier
Russia using more air bases would not only be possible, but be necessary if they really do deploy ground combat troops to take part in the fight directly.

As for relying on the existing forces already fighting on the ground, well I think that may be asking a bit too much of them.

Assad's forces have never been that great, and they have haemorrhaged a lot of men and materials already in this long and bitter war. I have heard that they hardly have any strategic reserves left, and that line troops pretty much never get rotated off to rest and regroup.

That is an unsustainable situation, and if they push the troops too hard and too long, it may backfire and have significant fighting units simply collapse and implode from accumulated attrition and fatigue.

I think fresh Russian and maybe French troops would be able to end this war far quicker and more decisively that relying on Assad's forces and other non-regular outfits already deployed. You want to destroy ISIS after all, not just drive it somewhere else. As such, you want a lightening war, not a slow grind.

I would send in foreign troops to launch a blitzkrieg push right along the Turkish boarder as the opening move, with both a large scale amphibious assault as well as a convectional push from Iraq closing in from both sides and meeting in the middle.

The goal is to cut-off ISIS's supply lines and escape routes as fast as possible to minimise the number of fighters and leaders who could escape as they see the tide shifting decisively against them.

You will also want to secure the board with Iraq (I assume the Israelis can keep ISIS out all by themselves), basically encircle as many ISIS fighters and leadership as possible, and then kill them all.

If possible, I would use foreign troops for all of this, especially Russian and French, as they have a blood debt to pay against ISIS, so would not be tempted by bribes as other forces might be (do not want to repeat America's mistakes at Bora Bora with OBL).

This allows Assad's forces to rest and regroup, and I would use the refreshed and consolidated Syrian government forces as occupation troops to secure, police and hold territory the foreign troops have cleared.

This would be using the assets available to the best of their strengths and abilities.

It should also make it that much more unlikely an insurgency war would ensure and be successful, since the Syrian government forces are locals, so would be far better placed at policing actions then foreigners who don't speak the language and don't know the customs.

There will always been the inevitable screw ups and mistakes in the battles that will cause civilian casualties. Having a force who was not involved in taking a city police it should also reduce a lot of the friction and temptations to seek revenges that often plague the aftermath of battles to take population centres.
A nice thought. Say the French along the Turkish border, the Russians along the Lebanese, Israeli and Jordan borders and the Iranians coming from the East. With such a coalition you might well see full Jordanian cooperation and so the use of one or two Jordanian air bases. Would Israel cooperate too?
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
A nice thought. Say the French along the Turkish border, the Russians along the Lebanese, Israeli and Jordan borders and the Iranians coming from the East. With such a coalition you might well see full Jordanian cooperation and so the use of one or two Jordanian air bases. Would Israel cooperate too?

I think the Israelis are deeply unhappy with the situation in Syria, as who would want the world's biggest terrorist-nut-job convention right on their boarder?

If they are presented with a credible action plan to restore Syria to pre-war levels as far as the security situation is concerned, I think they would be tempted to help.

However, I think any active Israeli involvement in the Syrian war would cause massive amounts of problems for everyone else involved politically speaking, so much so as to far outweigh their contributions.

No Arab nation could stomach fighting alongside the Israelis. That's just a sad fact of life. Your coalition would fall to bickering and ruin if Israel was seen as being involved in any way, shape or form.

The best thing they could do is stay well out of it, and that's exactly what they are doing.
 
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