A properly resourced PLAN (IE with 7-8 carriers) will most certainly project power in the Indian Ocean. Then Indian Navy will get to justify its budget.
Indian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
A properly resourced PLAN (IE with 7-8 carriers) will most certainly project power in the Indian Ocean. Then Indian Navy will get to justify its budget.
India has no good options, or really any options at all except for the Su-57.
That's assuming the IAF wants to induct a 5th gen fighter into service by the early 2030s, if not this decade.
Let's look at the other supposed options . . .
GCAP: Won't be ready until ~2035, if not .
FCAS: Won't be ready until ~2040. That is assuming the program isn't canceled altogether:
F-35: Pretty unworkable for India from the get go owing to typical US terms and conditions for acquiring high end American kit. Definitely not happening after this:
KF-21: Besides being subpar (e.g. no IWB), its inclusion of and dependency on American technologies — including a locally assembled variant of the GE F414 — translate to many of the same sovereign use issues as the F-35.
TAI Kaan: Also dependent on American turbofans, at least until ~2035, if not more likely 2040+. However, the even bigger hurdle in play is the de facto alliance between Turkey and Pakistan:
This leaves India with two options: having the "shit gouged out of them" as they deserve, yet despise by the Russians, or continuing their pursuit of the AMCA program, which will turn out as well as the LCA program.
Knowing New Delhi, they will likely pursue both, only to find neither program particularly satisfactory.
In short, to the detriment of Indian bellicosity, and to the benefit of regional peace and security, the IAF is "basically fucked."
But india is waaay bigger than Pakistan, Pak's first strike (insane to think) wont even 1/3 of india, they can shoot at them from way far, it be easier than via subs too. But fair.
This sounds more political decision than tactical/strategic, Imagine wasting hella time/money, maint costs and all the other future hassle on getting this vs using that money for something else.
Mate, since trump pissing them off recently indian crazy channels have retired naval officers saying THEY WILL BLOCK US CSG's from GOING VIA THE STRAIT, forget China they are thinking bigger
Dude you called it,
I don't know if the PLAN will make that many carriers to begin with, and I'm not sure if they'll conduct much operations into the Indian Ocean. China isn't interested in making military alliances all over the place, and it's not interested in conducting expeditionary combat. As such, I can envision the PLAN performing the odd exercise in the Indian Ocean to prove that they have the capability to break any Malacca blockade, but little else beyond that.
In any case, it's all academic because India has no way of buying any bombers, and nobody will help them build any. Maybe it'll be a thing after India has the industrial capacity to design and build them indigenously, but that's probably at least 50 years in the future.
Pretty much. I think that the KF-21 would be quite attractive if it wasn't completely dependent on the US. Maybe India should think about getting on China's good side, and see if they can get a good deal from some J-35s.This leaves India with two options: having the "shit gouged out of them" as they deserve, yet despise by the Russians, or continuing their pursuit of the AMCA program, which will turn out as well as the LCA program.
Knowing New Delhi, they will likely pursue both, only to find neither program particularly satisfactory.
In short, to the detriment of Indian bellicosity, and to the benefit of regional peace and security, the IAF is "basically fucked."
So you don't think China with 4 times population of US and soon 2-3 times bigger GDP will not project power in the key strategic region of Indian Ocean so close to its borders?I don't know if the PLAN will make that many carriers to begin with, and I'm not sure if they'll conduct much operations into the Indian Ocean. China isn't interested in making military alliances all over the place, and it's not interested in conducting expeditionary combat. As such, I can envision the PLAN performing the odd exercise in the Indian Ocean to prove that they have the capability to break any Malacca blockade, but little else beyond that.
In any case, it's all academic because India has no way of buying any bombers, and nobody will help them build any. Maybe it'll be a thing after India has the industrial capacity to design and build them indigenously, but that's probably at least 50 years in the future.
Pretty much. I think that the KF-21 would be quite attractive if it wasn't completely dependent on the US. Maybe India should think about getting on China's good side, and see if they can get a good deal from some J-35s.
The more powerful and Richer China gets, the more it has to start project power to maintain its prosperity. Cause otherwize US might use military power to prevent countries from trading with China. It might cause regime change and use military pressure to force countries to prevent Chinese investment.
India has already fomented coups in south asia just to prevent Chinese influence. So, If China is not present there with Military force, it will also lose its economic influence in the region.
My prediction is China will most certainly project its power in the Indian Ocean. Whether it builds many carriers or not depends on how useful carriers are in the modern battlefield. But its certainly going to project power with its navy.
I personally think that PLAN might want atleast parity with USN in terms of carriers even if they dont/wont power project, Just incase of a conflict in which us brings all 11 of its carriers together. (or more if somehow britain etc gets roped in)
Either way I do hope PLAN one day does those 'freedom of navigation' things right next to US territory waters, just to see the mess in US news media.
I think that China sees its role in international diplomacy as distinctively different from the USA or the USSR. It doesn't think in terms of military alliances or expeditionary warfare as a workable solution so it just doesn't have that need. Moreover, the current thinking in the CPC right now is that the American involvement in the GWOT and all of its military adventures were mistakes that China should avoid copying.
On the flip side, there's also a lot of costs involved with trying to project power into the Indian Ocean the way the USN does. First off, China will need a lot more naval bases to resupply and deploy from. And to do that, China would have to make military alliances with lots of countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia. Can you envision a world where China is setting up naval bases in Sri Lanka and Maldives? I don't think such a world is credible because it's simply not what China is about.
India has to buy something. I know many people say this doesnt work, that doesnt work. India's own indigenous program is still a long way from being ready.
The West sell planes at a high ripoff price. I am sure Korea will give them a fair deal.
What China sees its role in the world now is not how it used to see 20 years ago or how it will see it 20 years from now. Priorities and thinking change constantly. Thinking changes because power balance Changes.
China is still hide and bide mode, that's why its spending 1.5% of GDP on the military, a laughable amount to be honest.
China hopes that by keeping its military and geopolitical ambitions low, it can hide from US and western pressure and thus become rich faster. The west still holds 60% of world GDP. They are still too powerful.
But I don't think China can stay in hide and bide mode forever. US is already pressuring countries to stop them from having good economic relations with China using military force. It recently forced Panama to not have Chinese operators of its ports and threatened to sieze Panama Canal. Just imagine if Chinese naval and military presence in the Americas were strong, would US dare to make such threats? Nope.
Sooner or later China will have to start to protect its economic interests with military power just to prevent countries like US or India from couping China friendly governments.
I thought the stronger China is, the less likely that US can do anything about it. US is doing alot of things right now with the tariff and to prevent business going to China, but not many countries are listening to the US right now.
In the entire Asean, only Philippine will listen to the US. Thailand population has 40% Chinese ancestry. Singapore is a country of chinese diaspora, not really a US ally as US claimed.. Malaysia has Chinese roots too and Indonesia are all friendly towards China.