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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Which is what I don't understand and can never get from these Indian folks whether civilian or military people because almost all of them are synonymous with their seemingly unending contempt, envy of China’s capabilities militarily and elsewhere.

I have been watching defense shows that purported to discuss Indian defense and related issues on Sansad TV on YouTube and my goodness, there's not a single episode where China hasn't been on their consciousness; viewing that country as the "THREAT" to the Indians. A border issue is being hyped up relentlessly as China's aggressive takeover of their country. Any Chinese advances, procuring of weapons for it's armed forces are viewed fanatically as a threat to India. Taiwan, South China Sea somehow are included into their defense discussions while complaining incessantly about China's supposed "maligned intentions" in the Indian Ocean (that India thinks it belongs to them in it's entirety).

It's unfortunate that Indian mainstream thinking view China in this regard since it forces the Indians to really spend on their defense haphazardly where the much needed money should be focused on building up on their economy and finding some kind of modus vivendi with China as well as Pakistan to bide their time time while they (India) build up their strength. But such a strategy is anathema to these arrogant folks who both fear and underestimate China while patting themselves at the back with a false sense of non-existing superiority.
It's a weird tsundere thing. Shilao and Yankee was discussing this kind of thinking in light of that recent news where an ex-air marshal was saying India was to buy six Tu-160 from Russia.

Yankee said at one of those international symposium some India guy had a question for PLA rep asking "DF-31AG has a new TEL and is capable of off road rapid response, was it developed with Agni-V and its launch complex in mind?"

The PLA guy (who probably internally was thinking u wot m8) gave it the standard "we don't develop weapon system with any specific country in mind, it's strictly for the defense of China" to which the Indian guy look disappointed at the answer. Yankee said that's because he gave the wrong answer. Had he said instead "Yes that's right, we made this missile specifically for targeting India and it's capable of nuclear first strike against all of India's launch complexes and wiping out India's nuclear deterrence without warning so you guys should just give up" then that Indian guy would be really happy thinking "look how hard the Chinese are working to keep us down, they have us on their mind!"

Similarly even if India get Tu-160 it would still be outclassed by H-20 (although the Russians will no doubt argue against that saying look how successful Tu-160 has been deterring against B-2 for decades), but to Indians it would make them happy because they are now in the same league as China and can feel China treat them as serious threat and has gone to the trouble of developing something specifically to counter them.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
It's a weird tsundere thing. Shilao and Yankee was discussing this kind of thinking in light of that recent news where an ex-air marshal was saying India was to buy six Tu-160 from Russia.

Yankee said at one of those international symposium some India guy had a question for PLA rep asking "DF-31AG has a new TEL and is capable of off road rapid response, was it developed with Agni-V and its launch complex in mind?"

The PLA guy (who probably internally was thinking u wot m8) gave it the standard "we don't develop weapon system with any specific country in mind, it's strictly for the defense of China" to which the Indian guy look disappointed at the answer. Yankee said that's because he gave the wrong answer. Had he said instead "Yes that's right, we made this missile specifically for targeting India and it's capable of nuclear first strike against all of India's launch complexes and wiping out India's nuclear deterrence without warning so you guys should just give up" then that Indian guy would be really happy thinking "look how hard the Chinese are working to keep us down, they have us on their mind!"

Similarly even if India get Tu-160 it would still be outclassed by H-20 (although the Russians will no doubt argue against that saying look how successful Tu-160 has been deterring against B-2 for decades), but to Indians it would make them happy because they are now in the same league as China and can feel China treat them as serious threat and has gone to the trouble of developing something specifically to counter them.
They're like China's ugly neighbor who competes needlessly for her attention while holding two simultaneous opinions of China; one of envy and contempt.
 

Overlord

New Member
Registered Member
It was a good idea to defuse the situation in Eastern Ladakh because it is a huge distraction to deploy tens of thousands of men through the winter in high mountains. However, India maintains a hostile posture even if there was a pull back from specific flash points in Eastern Ladakh. In my view, any confrontation should be shifted from Eastern Ladakh to the Indian Ocean. More activity in the Indian Ocean by PLAN forces India to spend more heavily on the Indian Navy, depriving the Indian Army of funds for capital expenditure. It is more likely in my view of conflict in the high mountains than the Indian Ocean so it will be a net benefit to see the Indian Army less well equipped due to budget diversion to the Indian Navy.
Won't it be a bad move to change border problem and pull it into indian ocean ?

India will then enter into indo Pacific conflict and probably when china enter into war with taiwan then india will also join into the war and block malaca straight and probably japan might also join in war, why would you like to fight more than 2-3 front war , won't it will cripple PLA ? China main problem /weakness is taiwan and if you want to add problem then it will only be used to weaken china and USA would come almost at end to finish the war like how they came in previous world war.

In this scenario USA will surely win.
India has signed multiple defence agreement and shares data with Pentagon ans has access of Pentagon too, USA would happily give all the support to these nation in their fight with china and USA has control over pakistan too so it would halt pakistan to attack on india .
 

tygyg1111

Senior Member
Registered Member
Won't it be a bad move to change border problem and pull it into indian ocean ?

India will then enter into indo Pacific conflict and probably when china enter into war with taiwan then india will also join into the war and block malaca straight and probably japan might also join in war, why would you like to fight more than 2-3 front war , won't it will cripple PLA ? China main problem /weakness is taiwan and if you want to add problem then it will only be used to weaken china and USA would come almost at end to finish the war like how they came in previous world war.

In this scenario USA will surely win.
India has signed multiple defence agreement and shares data with Pentagon ans has access of Pentagon too, USA would happily give all the support to these nation in their fight with china and USA has control over pakistan too so it would halt pakistan to attack on india .
I hear the US would give the B2 bomber to India too, and revoke the sh*thole country status that Trump applied
 

beijing_bandar

New Member
Registered Member
Indian Minister of External Affairs Jaishankar spoke at Columbia SIPA on September 21. I am optimistic about his comments. He appears to want better relations with China and is more humble than elite Indians generally including the moderator Arvind Panagariya, Professor of Indian political economy at Columbia.

Jaishankar tells the professor to not get ahead of himself with the economic optimism about where India will be at the end of the decade (Jaishankar was more conservative and looks foward to India in 2047). According to Jaishankar with India at $2,000 per capita, the economy is still far away from crossing $10,000 per capita, a truly transformative point.

"how do two rising powers in absolute proximity to each other find a modus vivendi in a dynamic situation...our mutual interest to accommodate each other"
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Indian Minister of External Affairs Jaishankar spoke at Columbia SIPA on September 21. I am optimistic about his comments. He appears to want better relations with China and is more humble than elite Indians generally including the moderator Arvind Panagariya, Professor of Indian political economy at Columbia.

Jaishankar tells the professor to not get ahead of himself with the economic optimism about where India will be at the end of the decade (Jaishankar was more conservative and looks foward to India in 2047). According to Jaishankar with India at $2,000 per capita, the economy is still far away from crossing $10,000 per capita, a truly transformative point.

"how do two rising powers in absolute proximity to each other find a modus vivendi in a dynamic situation...our mutual interest to accommodate each other"
The biggest problem in India is the same than most big country, the most stupid ones take way too much place in medias. They have a lot of well educated and moderate peoples around but they don't make a lot of noise.
 

beijing_bandar

New Member
Registered Member
In Foreign Policy this week, a leading Indian strategic thinker argues for India to launch a third aircraft carrier.
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India has taken the mantle of a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region and for the first time in its history faces a significant hostile power at sea: the Chinese navy. Even as the new aircraft carrier will require significant protection given its prestige, its advantages outweigh the risks.
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The Indian Navy believes that it needs more aircraft carriers to dominate the Indian Ocean and deter China’s navy from challenging it in its maritime backyard.
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When adequately defended with anti-missile and anti-aircraft cover, a carrier task force could pose challenges to Chinese naval operations in the Indian Ocean and help interdict Chinese trade in the region, if need be. In the last decade, India’s naval thinking has emphasized sea lines of communication interdiction—preventing movement along primary maritime routes—as leverage against China. Carrier task forces would support this
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by targeting China’s sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean region.
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Second, the Indian Navy’s carrier task forces could help reset the
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the China has gained in the last decade by projecting its presence in the Indian Ocean. The Chinese navy will still take
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to establish a fleet in the region, far from home waters. The restrictive geography of the South China Sea renders the movement of the current Chinese fleet highly predictable. The Indian Navy has a grace period to develop capabilities to take on Chinese carrier task forces effectively, as India’s aircraft carriers could project power deep into the Indian Ocean region. By using sea denial platforms such as nuclear-propelled submarines and positioning standoff weapons such as anti-ship missiles in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India could make the Chinese navy vulnerable. Such projection will also impress India’s ability to safeguard its interests upon island states and countries in the northern Indian Ocean.
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U.S. grand strategy requires a formidable buildup of the Indian Navy, and if the Quad ultimately becomes a military alliance, its members will look to New Delhi to play a
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in the Indian Ocean. This gives India significant leverage, which it should use to bargain for more assistance to develop its third aircraft carrier.

I would breakdown the author's arguments into three categories: interdiction, regional prestige, and cooperation with the US.

1. Interdiction
Would the aircraft carrier be able to survive if it attempted to interdict Chinese oil tankers considering the cutting edge of anti-ship missiles? I am skeptical of this. I don't like detailed discussion of military equipment so I won't dwell too much on this point.

I also think 10 years from now, the idea of sea lanes of communication will be a concept of the past for China because China will find a way to eliminate seaborne imports of oil. Electric vehicle/hybrid plug in sales are running at 25% of new car sales this year in China. Complete adoption of electric cars and electric heavy trucks will stabilize oil demand. And construction of several new crude oil pipelines with Russia over the next 10 years could replace the 10 million b/d currently imported by sea.

2. Regional prestige
An extra aircraft carrier would enhance Indian regional prestige moderately. However, there's no substitute of the prestige gained from fast economic growth. India is not on a fast economic growth trajectory contrary to what most Indians believe. Unrealistic belief in future Indian growth is the fatal assumption for almost all Indian strategic thinkers.

3. Cooperation with the US
Put more plainly, if India imports more military equipment from the US, the US will reciprocate by fighting alongside India. A $10 billion order for F-18 jets for the third Indian Navy aircraft carrier would boost cooperation. However, the driver of the Indo-US alliance will not be arms sales.
 

beijing_bandar

New Member
Registered Member
The biggest problem in India is the same than most big country, the most stupid ones take way too much place in medias. They have a lot of well educated and moderate peoples around but they don't make a lot of noise.
I think you are giving Indians too much of a benefit of a doubt. There is a basic secret to understanding elite Indian personalities. Among the intelligentsia in India (those who create culture, guide foreign policy, etc.), I would estimate upwards of 7 out of 8 are Hindus from the high castes (i.e. Brahmins and merchant groups). While only 1 out of 8 people in the overall Indian population are high caste Hindus. If you are born into a social system with a deeply embedded caste based social hierarchy ranking you superior to others, you are going to have an ingrained sense of superiority. Due to ingrained superiority, the top thinkers in Indian foreign policy generally lack objectivity in assessing India's potential. They are wildly optimistic about India's future and always think the rise of India is around the corner.

External Affairs Minister Jaishankar spoke at another event in New York this week. From the clip below, the moderator is enthralled by the idea of India becoming a top 3 global power within 20 years. Jaishankar seems a bit embarassed to be near the sycophantic moderator (whose family background is Kashmir Brahmin).


My little exposition is not to ridicule Indians for no purpose. I am interested in understanding Indian psychology and anthropology to devise a strategy to deal with the huge wasteful distraction of Ladakh in the most cost effective manner. Specifically, China should actively help the Indian Navy win the budget war against other branches and get a third aircraft carrier. To that end, if a PLAN aircraft carrier visits Pakistan and hangs out in the Indian Ocean in a conspicuous way, it will get the Indian political class and MoD moving on the third aricraft carrier. From a cost and overall budget perspective, the third aircraft carrier makes no sense for India but Indians wildly overestimate the financial resources their nation will acquire over the next 10-20 years and will commit huge blunders from not knowing thyself.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
My little exposition is not to ridicule Indians for no purpose. I am interested in understanding Indian psychology and anthropology to devise a strategy to deal with the huge wasteful distraction of Ladakh in the most cost effective manner. Specifically, China should actively help the Indian Navy win the budget war against other branches and get a third aircraft carrier. To that end, if a PLAN aircraft carrier visits Pakistan and hangs out in the Indian Ocean in a conspicuous way, it will get the Indian political class and MoD moving on the third aricraft carrier. From a cost and overall budget perspective, the third aircraft carrier makes no sense for India but Indians wildly overestimate the financial resources their nation will acquire over the next 10-20 years and will commit huge blunders from not knowing thyself.
Which is more of a threat to China? A stronger Indian Navy that can block Chinese shipping in the Indian Ocean or a massive Indian Army that has very limited avenue to send troops to Ladakh and at best threatens a vast area of no man's land with no economic value?
 
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