Indian Economics thread.

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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Broke: Because India has a large population, it will automatically have a large economy.

Woke: There are several crucial structural factors that ensure India will consistently underperform - poor and irreformable governance, a caste system prohibiting full economic participation, a multiplicity of mutually unintelligible dialects and languages, strong regionalism and autonomy, lack of education and human development, democracy preventing long-term planning, pseudo-socialist laws preventing markets from functioning, perverse incentives throughout the economy, lack of government capacity to build infrastructure, etc.

Bespoke: There's no such thing as India.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
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Sounds like a feasible theory. But yet the other hot-weather, tropical peoples like the Bangladeshis, Vietnamese, Indonesians, Thais, and Filipinos can all work harder, and study harder than the Indians. Plus, they have a far less sense of 'Superpower' entitlement, and 'Jai Hind' in their mindsets. When we look at it that way, it makes Indian underachievement all the more damning.

Bangladesh has Islamic discipline overlaid on top of their society.
Vietnam has internalised Confucian ideals in its society.
etc
etc
 

xypher

Senior Member
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Well, they are not doing much better than India. I would not put Thailand into that category as I think that they are more close to Malaysia - i.e. they are unable to penetrate the middle-income trap which is bypassable via investments into education (necessary for the high-tech industry), infrastructure, and R&D.
 

In4ser

Junior Member
Sounds like a feasible theory. But yet the other hot-weather, tropical peoples like the Bangladeshis, Vietnamese, Indonesians, Thais, and Filipinos can all work harder, and study harder than the Indians. Plus, they have a far less sense of 'Superpower' entitlement, and 'Jai Hind' in their mindsets. When we look at it that way, it makes Indian underachievement all the more damning.
It's been speculated that religions, especially those that believe in reincarnation, do not place as much value in the here and now because they believe in an afterlife. Why would true believers worry about worldly concerns when the present reality is ephemeral and if eternal paradise awaits in the afterlife or is just another in an ongoing cycle? According to that point of view, spiritual adherence and righteousness matter more and would probably explain why Indians obsess about being a "democracy" and "being morally superior" despite their present circumstances.
 
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Skywatcher

Captain
I blame culture and not being able to shed off their feudal level caste system. Why spend money on the great untouchable masses when we the higher castes can life comfortably in gated communes.
India right now bears more than a passing resemblance to very late Qing/Warlords era China (especially with the later day Ah Qs of the cyber troll brigades)
 

ougoah

Brigadier
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India right now bears more than a passing resemblance to very late Qing/Warlords era China (especially with the later day Ah Qs of the cyber troll brigades)

I'd say they're in the little red book waving phase except with RSS salutes and Jai Hind shouting. There is no Deng equivalent in sight and they also don't have the foundations of industry or organisation created by the little red book waving folks from yesteryear. The underlying strategic planning is also absent in India... yes even from that era of China. At least the Chinese made use of it and it provided some forced unity where the underlying long term planning eventually yield returns. With India it is currently all talk nearly zero substance.

Even then China's literacy rate and key metrics are higher than today's India YIKES.

Oh and that proper "communist" period of China at least was useful for diminishing the superstitions of certain cultural aspects. Especially the more harmful or less productive stuff. With what India has now, it just has mass public lynchings, beating and murdering of Muslims, systemic destruction of half their farmers and increasing poverty with economic mismanagement ... similar to Mao's era of China. Rupee and unemployment were going worse and worse from 2019. A lot of feel good soundbytes that amounted to nothing or no more a crawl than everyone else in a similar boat.
 
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Gloire_bb

Captain
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First, India only operates STOBAR carriers. Historically, modern STOBAR carriers are best suited for defensive doctrine. Such carriers can conduct offensive operations, but they are not as optimized as CATOBAR carriers. Now with Indian carriers carrying Barak-8, there is bound to be more limitations to the air wing size, and its resupply inventory. Since Indian carriers are about similar tonnage to large LHDs like the Wasp class, this is going to be an even greater issue.
There is no contradiction between doctrine and available carriers in the IN case (which in this particular regard is ironically more Soviet than the actual Russian navy). Barak 8 installation doesn't affect wing size and consumables, at least not directly - in Vikramaditya's case it was pretty much predetermined, for Vikrant - set by technical requirement.
There are tons of limitations there, but in the end - India has one carrier in service, another - on trials. Which for their economy and quite stiff opposition from army&air force is a significant achievement.
Btw, the same optics have to be applied to all ships in Indian service - they don't have blank checks, and when they assume they do - India often gets into all sorts of troubles.
Second. Indian naval air defence is overated. They have an over-reliance on the Barak-8 missiles. Instead of having a family of SAMs like the PLAN, Russian Navy, and USN. The Indian Navy ships are solely reliant on the Barak 8 for all ranges of air defence. Only complimented by CIWS for very short range air defence. Even the Barak 8 missile themselves look quite average on paper. So Indian naval air defence is incomparable to the capabilities of the PLAN.
Mig-29K - Barak-8 - Shtil - Barak-1 - CIWS.
There are fighters and AEW helicopters in the equation - this already makes the whole defense quite stiff.
On the SAM side - there is nothing to underrate or to overrate here, it is the way it is. Modern omnidirectional medium to long-range ARH SAM system. It performs like an average SAM system of its class(well, right now somewhat below average, but I remember no one amongst their possible opponents who can exploit that right now). Overall - at least for now it's within the loop, and makes them fully competitive within Indian Ocean.
3) India is yet to field even a basic long range ship launched cruise missile. Their only land strike option are the Brahmos missiles. Again, another overrated and over-relied weapon system.
Brahmos is exactly that very "long range ship launched" missile, which is being employed precisely in a role it's designed for, on a significant scale.
In addition, Talwars and kilos carry kalibr family, smaller combatants have Kh-35.
Finally, for a relatively limited conventional power projection they actually need - they have ~4 dozens Mig-29Ks, which is sufficient for pretty much everything.
So it's not about India has 'strike frigates', or 'aircraft-carrying cruisers'. Basically their naval ship designs and doctrines are a mess. India wants a pseudo blue water navy for power projection. But then their ships and weapons are actually more suited for defensive doctrines. Their naval air defence looks like a cheap fix with only one Barak-8 filling the roles of multiple types of SAMs.
It's actually exactly about them.
Indian navy, for all their procurement mess*, is quite consistently building one particular model of a navy, which should be pretty obvious to everyone who studied the CW at sea. Now, you actually sort of spotted it ("defensive doctrines") - but nevertheless proceed to force on IN something they aren't building.
Why such bias? If anything, the single most blatant example of a mismatch between doctrine and ships right now is actually PLAN, with its huge modern surface battle force centered on ... 001 type carriers (and whole half-separate navy of older brown/green water combatants, which don't really fit into the new way of fighting).
Yes, it is (temporary) result of a fundamental change in the direction, but...for some reason you spot it for IN (where there is none), and not for the PLAN.
I wouldn't listen too much to the Indian media and the Jai Hinds. The Indian Navy is only ok at best, but its not world-class. Its not even fitting for major powers like Russia and Japan. So if they dare to use it against a serious navy like the PLAN. They are going to get the lesson for a generation.
Within the boundaries of Indian ocean they're pretty capable of doing this fight, and will probably remain so within the foreseeable future*. Geography and "defensive doctrines" matters. This doesn't mean they will win (leave predetermined victory between comparable opponents to youtube channels), but it does mean they have a sufficient fighting chance.
As for comparing them with these "major powers" - it really depends. Japanese navy is still toothless (changing, but still won't be stellar outside of the home waters), Russian naval aviation is a ghost of Khrushchev, and so on.
 
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Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
There is no contradiction between doctrine and available carriers in the IN case (which in this particular regard is ironically more Soviet than the actual Russian navy). Barak 8 installation doesn't affect wing size and consumables, at least not directly - in Vikramaditya's case it was pretty much predetermined, for Vikrant - set by technical requirement.
There are tons of limitations there, but in the end - India has one carrier in service, another - on trials. Which for their economy and quite stiff opposition from army&air force is a significant achievement.
Btw, the same optics have to be applied to all ships in Indian service - they don't have blank checks, and when they assume they do - India often gets into all sorts of troubles.
What are you trying to argue here? Installing missiles on aircraft carriers does have a big impact. It is an established fact. Just look at the Admiral Kuznetsov. Admiral Kuznetsov has a smaller airwing than Liaoning. Aviation also cannot operate when large missiles are being launched.

So India has 2 aircraft carriers for a country with around 800 million people in poverty. Bravo! If you think that is a significant achievement, how about the other 'lesser navies' of Brazil, Argentina, Thailand whom at some point had aircraft carriers? They don't have India's economy, yet they were able to procure carriers. Hmm, maybe India is not so special after all?

Mig-29K - Barak-8 - Shtil - Barak-1 - CIWS.
There are fighters and AEW helicopters in the equation - this already makes the whole defense quite stiff.
On the SAM side - there is nothing to underrate or to overrate here, it is the way it is. Modern omnidirectional medium to long-range ARH SAM system. It performs like an average SAM system of its class(well, right now somewhat below average, but I remember no one amongst their possible opponents who can exploit that right now). Overall - at least for now it's within the loop, and makes them fully competitive within Indian Ocean.
I don't want to go into too much specifics here as this thread is about the Indian economy. All SAMs can do their jobs, but each type of India's Naval SAMs is only installed in each specific vessels, not combined on a single vessel to create a layered defense. Because of that, India's naval air defense is messy, hence it is overrated.

Brahmos is exactly that very "long range ship launched" missile, which is being employed precisely in a role it's designed for, on a significant scale.
In addition, Talwars and kilos carry kalibr family, smaller combatants have Kh-35.
Finally, for a relatively limited conventional power projection they actually need - they have ~4 dozens Mig-29Ks, which is sufficient for pretty much everything.
The Indian Navy and military analysts touted the Brahmos missile to be their go to choice for land-attack missions. Brahmos vs CJ-10 or Tomahawk? No need for debate.

It's actually exactly about them.
Indian navy, for all their procurement mess*, is quite consistently building one particular model of a navy, which should be pretty obvious to everyone who studied the CW at sea. Now, you actually sort of spotted it ("defensive doctrines") - but nevertheless proceed to force on IN something they aren't building.
Why such bias? If anything, the single most blatant example of a mismatch between doctrine and ships right now is actually PLAN, with its huge modern surface battle force centered on ... 001 type carriers (and whole half-separate navy of older brown/green water combatants, which don't really fit into the new way of fighting).
Yes, it is (temporary) result of a fundamental change in the direction, but...for some reason you spot it for IN (where there is none), and not for the PLAN.
What are you trying to pull over here? What has the mess of the Indian Navy gotta do with the PLAN? China is not the one proclaiming that they want their carriers to perform power projection. Their carriers are for defending the Chinese coasts and seaways only. Not for blockading another country or bombing another country. It has always been clear and consistent. Why are you so desperate to defend the Indian Navy that you have to resort to gaslighting?

Within the boundaries of Indian ocean they're pretty capable of doing this fight, and will probably remain so within the foreseeable future*. Geography and "defensive doctrines" matters. This doesn't mean they will win (leave predetermined victory between comparable opponents to youtube channels), but it does mean they have a sufficient fighting chance.
As for comparing them with these "major powers" - it really depends. Japanese navy is still toothless (changing, but still won't be stellar outside of the home waters), Russian naval aviation is a ghost of Khrushchev, and so on.
Indian Navy can fight in the Indian Ocean, but China is not interested to fight India there unless India picks a fight. It won't be an easy fight for India that's for sure. Nevertheless, it is actually India that has the intentions to confront China in the South China Sea and blockade the Malacca Straits. Even now with its vastly inferior navy.

Japanese Navy may be toothless. Russian Navy maybe ghosts of Khrushchev. But I'm betting that both of them do not envy the Indian Navy. If they can construct the Maya-class destroyers, or build the Borei-class SSBNs why should they be envying the Indian Navy?
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
What are you trying to argue here? Installing missiles on aircraft carriers does have a big impact. It is an established fact.
They have an impact if you hypothetically weigh one option against another - and those will be different ships.
If designers have both directly on their "to do" request - there is no "options" - both will be fitted.
In case of Vikramaditya - the size of her hangar was predetermined by the hangar of the original ship(Baku). In case of Vikrant - same was set (determined) at the final RfP stage.
p.s. barak-8 isn't really that large of a missile.
Admiral Kuznetsov has a smaller airwing than Liaoning.
Because while they're closely related - they aren't the same ships. You can't change Kuznetsov to be Liaoning. Or to be fair - you can, but for a prohibitive time and financial cost. Same with Vikramaditya and Vikrant.
So India has 2 aircraft carriers for a country with around 800 million people in poverty. Bravo! If you think that is a significant achievement, how about the other 'lesser navies' of Brazil, Argentina, Thailand whom at some point had aircraft carriers? They don't have India's economy, yet they were able to procure carriers. Hmm, maybe India is not so special after all?
I understand that this is a thread for nationalistic fighting, but I am not really interested in it, and only came for the ship discussion.
Fact is, for all intents and purposes, is that IN is a soon-to-be 2 carrier navy. Millions in poverty or no, you have to understand it as such.
All SAMs can do their jobs, but each type of India's Naval SAMs is only installed in each specific vessels, not combined on a single vessel to create a layered defense. Because of that, India's naval air defense is messy, hence it is overrated.
To be fair - the previous generation of Indian warships(Delhi/Shivalik/Rajputs still in service) do in fact carry layered air defenses.
But while it is a downside - it isn't an unique India-specific downside, and is often accepted for warships of this class. Including many Chinese ship classes.
The Indian Navy and military analysts touted the Brahmos missile to be their go to choice for land-attack missions. Brahmos vs CJ-10 or Tomahawk? No need for debate.
Brahmos was tested against land targets. Onyx(close relative) was actually used in combat against them(more to make a statement, but still). And finally - Indians are in this case simply continuing with what is known to work (operation Trident).
All in all - it's worth noting, that Indian military currently doesn't really need that much of naval strike to begin with - it only makes sense for Western Pakistani ports). The last time Indian navy was used for this mission - Eastern Pakistan was still in existence, and majority of targets weren't within reach of any other stand-off weapons.
p.s. you conveniently forgot 3M14E, which Indians have on 14 ships in service (5 more in acquisition).
What are you trying to pull over here? What has the mess of the Indian Navy gotta do with the PLAN? China is not the one proclaiming that they want their carriers to perform power projection. Their carriers are for defending the Chinese coasts and seaways only. Not for blockading another country or bombing another country. It has always been clear and consistent. Why are you so desperate to defend the Indian Navy that you have to resort to gaslighting?
1. Power projection is originally on 3rd place in their missions(after fleet air defense and anti-shipping strike). I.e. it's actually pretty low.
2. Carrier is a sea control/strike platform, flag or stated goal(coast defense carrier? wow) on it is of no difference. It can fight for sea control in the waters around China. It may fight for sea control protecting China's territorial integrity(Taiwan gets itchy behind the ear).
Or elsewhere. This is the point of a carrier. "Protecting sea lanes" by China is a defensive mission from a Chinese standpoint(Chinese trade), but from the Indian one it's actually an offensive mission(naval offensive in Indian ocean, aimed at the destruction of the Indian navy).
Why? You may find some time to read A. Mahan, it's useful for arguments on the use of sea power. And look at the map on top of that.
3. I am not "desperate", nor am I really "protecting" it. I'd prefer to call it having at least some knowledge on the subject.
If you despise "Jai Hinds" - be above them.
Indian Navy can fight in the Indian Ocean, but China is not interested to fight India there unless India picks a fight. It won't be an easy fight for India that's for sure. Nevertheless, it is actually India that has the intentions to confront China in the South China Sea and blockade the Malacca Straits. Even now with its vastly inferior navy.
Again - spare me the political side of the dispute, I am only interested in the naval aspect here.
It doesn't even matter, say, who will begin. The majority of Chinese SLOCs pass through Malakka and Indian ocean - and it's pretty obvious (and known!) plan of IN to cut them in case of hostilities: in fact, it visibly demonstrated just that last summer - by demonstratively shadowing China-bound commercial vessels.
If India (China, Pakistan, Burkina-Faso) does pick this fight - PLAN will have to do something, or else what's the point of its current existence; The only way to solve this in given geographical conditions is establishing control of the Indian ocean. The way of establishing control over the body of water is obvious(Mahan again). The mission of the IN, in this case, is obviously the opposite - which is greatly simplified by geography(long and restricting Malakka+Andaman islands; "wall" of neutral nations in-between; significant logistical and military problems of using other straits).

Consequently, for as long as India sees China as a primary military(or political) threat - it'll continue to try to ensure its capability to win this battle. As of now - it technically can.
And, vise versa - until and unless China can somehow solve this problem politically - Indian subcontinent will continue to weigh as a sort of Damocles sword over East Asia-bound trade routs, and it's going to be a possible (undesirable, but possible) scenario for the PLAN. Ongoing coast defense supercarrier construction is, among others, a way to address that exact problem.
Japanese Navy may be toothless. Russian Navy maybe ghosts of Khrushchev. But I'm betting that both of them do not envy the Indian Navy. If they can construct the Maya-class destroyers, or build the Borei-class SSBNs why should they be envying the Indian Navy?
Dunno. 3 different navies. And I said about Russian naval aviation, not navy. It's an important distinction.
p.s. until and unless we're ending the world, SSBN is more of a pain in the ass for a navy than an actual asset.
 
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