Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)


Orthan

Junior Member
I am opening this discussion to talk about the impact of China's rise and the likely reduction of dominance of US and Europe in the world. I would like to see a long term perspective in this analysis in the range of 30-50 years.

I hope you can keep the discussion here long term with a horizon of 30-50 years.
30-50 years is too far ahead in the future. Nowadays, the world changes too fast for anyone to have an ideia about what will be the future that far.

Anglo misinformation and propaganda outlet Reuters:
Sounds like the former minister is now a member of the SFA.

He is a former chinese industry minister. He must know more about the chinese economy than you do.
 
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reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
30-50 years is a long time. Let me talk a little about the next two to three decades.

It is inevitable that China will pass the U.S. to become the number one nation in the world. Currently, China's GDP is 70% that of the U.S. by currency exchange terms. In 2-3 decades, they will be 2x the U.S. in currency exchange terms. Continuing urbanization, continuing catch up to the forefront of technology and the belts and roads initiative should allow them to do this without any problems. The first two factors are completely in their control and U.S. interference will have very minimal impact of this progress. Belts and Roads initiative will encounter some headwinds from the West, but since it is a win for both China and the target countries, it will also be difficult to stop. Please note that I did not mention anything about breakthroughs by the Chinese, just the mundane stuff.

Even at 70% GDS to the U.S. today, I would argue that China is more or less the same size economically as the U.S. You just have to examine the numbers in more detail to realize that this is true. For example, the portion of GDP attributed to construction is similar in size between the U. S. and China, however, the Chinese used 213 million tons of concrete in the month of December 2020. The U.S. used only 90 million tons of concrete the entire year of 2020. Extrapolating, the Chinese built 28x of buildings/roads compared to the U.S. while contributing the same amount of GDP! We can look at steel production and usage and you see the same thing. Similarly we here in this forum can see the big cost differentials between the U.S. and China when it comes to building military equipment. For warships, it is easily 3-5x, so in the military portion of the GDP there is not nearly as big a difference as the delta in military budget would suggest. This goes on for other sectors such as retail, finance, law, medical etc.

Now when they reach 2x our GDP in currency exchange terms, they would become the dominant economy, the dominant military power and the dominant market. The real difference in national power could be 3-4x or more. There is really not much we can do to stop that from happening.

They are not at the forefront of technology, but their government is focused like a laser to move to the forefront. In the short time that Trump had sanctioned Huawei, they had already managed to create their own duv machines. It is a matter of time before they will come up with their own euv machines. The other final frontiers, aerospace is being conquered with the advent of the C-919 and future CR-929. In a decade, most of these bottlenecks will be resolved.

In a decade, the U.S. will start to lose our reserve currency status. This will limit our ability to print our way out of a jam. Our military will stagnate due to the lack of funds. Without a dominant military, our interests in the Middle East and East Asia will be in peril.

While it is true that the U.S. is still the biggest powerhouse in scientific discovery, we should bear in mind the following.

1. Without the ability to manufacture, science discovery is meaningless. Look at the chip industry, it was completely invented here in the U.S. Now most of the manufacturing is done in Taiwan and South Korea. Intel has fallen behind TSMC. Any future tech breakthrough will start to migrate to East Asia during the infancy of the tech deployment phase and, in a decade be done outside the U.S.

2. The Chinese are catching up fast. Just look at their university rankings. They are moving up in a very rapid pace. This is driven by large and increasing spending by the government along with a lot of attention paid to how to do research better. There was a time maybe hundred or more years ago, if you got your PhD in a U.S. university, you are not qualified to teach a U.S. university. Only someone with a PhD in a European university were qualified to be a professor in U.S. universities. Look how the roles of changed. In time, the Chinese will pass us in science and research as well. With an economy 3x or more of the U.S., it would be just a matter of time.

3. Our great universities are built based on talents from all over the world. With a bigger budget and ever improving reputation, the Chinese will lure many of these talents to China as we are now doing. We no longer have a monopoly in our universities.

4. Colleges cost money. If we lose our reserve currency status, our economy may stagnate and research will suffer from lack of funds.

In two or three decades, the Chinese will become the leading nation in the world. There is not much we can do to stop that. We should think through how we position ourselves in the world where we will be number two.
 

Lethe

Senior Member
I have occasionally toyed with the idea of writing a "future history" novel running through to the late 21st century. It would be vaguely dystopian and many of the events described would certainly be discomfiting to an Anglo-American audience. Here's a brief outline of some of the events relating to China.

1. Chinese victory over US and Allied forces in a brief (days-weeks), high-intensity sea-air battle. (~2030s)
2. Attempted insurrection within USA as reaction to that defeat, leading to civil war and eventual breakup of the USA into three distinct nations: basically East, South, and California. East will eventually merge with Canada, South descends into brutal apartheid regime, California as hyper-capitalist corporate-ruled dystopia.
3. Chinese suzerainty over and partial occupation of Australia in wake of aforementioned conflict. Note that this is a relatively benign "occupation", though of course there are resistance movements. By the close of the novel the population of Australia is some 25% Chinese and China views Australia as a kind of petri dish in which cultural experiments are made. The framing device for the novel is that the writer is an elderly Anglo-Australian seeking to get his account published through the local Chinese governance apparatus.
4. China emerges as clearly the most powerful nation in the world. Following an engineered virus attack on China (~2060s) which causes tens of millions of deaths, China embarks upon the "wrath of heaven" period in which it hunts down and destroys those responsible around the world over the course of 10-15 years. Essentially analogous to US "War on Terror" but on a greater scale. Major confrontations with Japan and California occur in this period (it is a splinter group within Japan that created the virus, with assistance from entities in California).
5. Towards the close of the novel, in the later part of the 21st century, and in the wake of the "wrath of heaven" period, a new harmony is achieved throughout East Asia as manifest Chinese power is matched with wise forbearance and open generosity. Essentially, China makes material sacrifices that allow Japan, (united) Korea, Formosa, to flourish and feel secure under Chinese hegemony. A shrine is built in what is now North Korea to the eternal unity and harmony of East Asia and millions flock to it each year.
 

j17wang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anglo misinformation and propaganda outlet Reuters:

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BEIJING (Reuters) - China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of "great power", a former industry minister said on Sunday, despite boasting the world's most complete industrial supply chains.

In recent years, China has become the world's top manufacturing nation, accounting for over a third of global output, driven by domestic demand to produce everything from motor vehicles to industrial machinery. But its industries' heavy dependence on U.S. high-tech products such as semiconductors constituted a strategic weakness.

"Basic capabilities are still weak, core technologies are in the hands of others, and the risk of 'being hit in the throat' and having 'a slipped bike chain' has significantly increased," said Miao Wei, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for a decade before stepping down last year.

As the Chinese economy pivots towards a services-based model and polluting smoke-stack factories are mothballed, manufacturing output as a share of the economy has declined. In 2020, manufacturing accounted for slightly over a quarter of gross domestic product, the lowest since 2012.

"The ratio of manufacturing output to GDP has been declining too early and too quickly, which not only weighs on economic growth and affects employment, but also brings security loopholes to our industries and diminishes our economy's ability to withstand risks, and its global competitiveness," said Miao, now a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body to the government.

President Xi Jinping said in November that innovation in the manufacturing industry is far from adequate, and firms need to tackle "bottleneck" technologies to become fully innovative.

"China's manufacturing industry has made great achievements in recent years, but the situation of being 'big but not strong' and 'comprehensive but not good' has not been fundamentally changed," Miao said in a speech to CPPCC delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

There are many problems restricting the high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing, but the most fundamental one is insufficient market-oriented reforms, Miao said.

While the tax burden on companies remains heavy, and financial support on the manufacturing sector needs strengthening urgently, a shortage of innovative and high-tech talent has also significantly constrained development of the sector, Miao added.

"We must maintain our strategic resolve, stay clear-headed and deeply understand the gaps and deficiencies."
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What are your thoughts on this article ? China is 30 years away to become a manufacturing great power ?

Sounds more like false flag. If he had said China was strong, would probably have invited more sanctions on Comac and other vulnerable entities.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
30-50 years is a long time. Let me talk a little about the next two to three decades.

It is inevitable that China will pass the U.S. to become the number one nation in the world. Currently, China's GDP is 70% that of the U.S. by currency exchange terms. In 2-3 decades, they will be 2x the U.S. in currency exchange terms. Continuing urbanization, continuing catch up to the forefront of technology and the belts and roads initiative should allow them to do this without any problems. The first two factors are completely in their control and U.S. interference will have very minimal impact of this progress. Belts and Roads initiative will encounter some headwinds from the West, but since it is a win for both China and the target countries, it will also be difficult to stop. Please note that I did not mention anything about breakthroughs by the Chinese, just the mundane stuff.

Even at 70% GDS to the U.S. today, I would argue that China is more or less the same size economically as the U.S. You just have to examine the numbers in more detail to realize that this is true. For example, the portion of GDP attributed to construction is similar in size between the U. S. and China, however, the Chinese used 213 million tons of concrete in the month of December 2020. The U.S. used only 90 million tons of concrete the entire year of 2020. Extrapolating, the Chinese built 28x of buildings/roads compared to the U.S. while contributing the same amount of GDP! We can look at steel production and usage and you see the same thing. Similarly we here in this forum can see the big cost differentials between the U.S. and China when it comes to building military equipment. For warships, it is easily 3-5x, so in the military portion of the GDP there is not nearly as big a difference as the delta in military budget would suggest. This goes on for other sectors such as retail, finance, law, medical etc.

Now when they reach 2x our GDP in currency exchange terms, they would become the dominant economy, the dominant military power and the dominant market. The real difference in national power could be 3-4x or more. There is really not much we can do to stop that from happening.

They are not at the forefront of technology, but their government is focused like a laser to move to the forefront. In the short time that Trump had sanctioned Huawei, they had already managed to create their own duv machines. It is a matter of time before they will come up with their own euv machines. The other final frontiers, aerospace is being conquered with the advent of the C-919 and future CR-929. In a decade, most of these bottlenecks will be resolved.

In a decade, the U.S. will start to lose our reserve currency status. This will limit our ability to print our way out of a jam. Our military will stagnate due to the lack of funds. Without a dominant military, our interests in the Middle East and East Asia will be in peril.

While it is true that the U.S. is still the biggest powerhouse in scientific discovery, we should bear in mind the following.

1. Without the ability to manufacture, science discovery is meaningless. Look at the chip industry, it was completely invented here in the U.S. Now most of the manufacturing is done in Taiwan and South Korea. Intel has fallen behind TSMC. Any future tech breakthrough will start to migrate to East Asia during the infancy of the tech deployment phase and, in a decade be done outside the U.S.

2. The Chinese are catching up fast. Just look at their university rankings. They are moving up in a very rapid pace. This is driven by large and increasing spending by the government along with a lot of attention paid to how to do research better. There was a time maybe hundred or more years ago, if you got your PhD in a U.S. university, you are not qualified to teach a U.S. university. Only someone with a PhD in a European university were qualified to be a professor in U.S. universities. Look how the roles of changed. In time, the Chinese will pass us in science and research as well. With an economy 3x or more of the U.S., it would be just a matter of time.

3. Our great universities are built based on talents from all over the world. With a bigger budget and ever improving reputation, the Chinese will lure many of these talents to China as we are now doing. We no longer have a monopoly in our universities.

4. Colleges cost money. If we lose our reserve currency status, our economy may stagnate and research will suffer from lack of funds.

In two or three decades, the Chinese will become the leading nation in the world. There is not much we can do to stop that. We should think through how we position ourselves in the world where we will be number two.
this must be tough for Reservoir to post. it hurts to see your own country decline in power and prestige, and needs a brave, rational and sensible man indeed to admit it.
However, I am sure Uncle Sam has some good tricks hidden in its sleeve in an attempt to stay at the top spot.
 

solarz

Brigadier
this must be tough for Reservoir to post. it hurts to see your own country decline in power and prestige, and needs a brave, rational and sensible man indeed to admit it.
However, I am sure Uncle Sam has some good tricks hidden in its sleeve in an attempt to stay at the top spot.

I believe the US would be a much better nation if it conducted reforms to rid itself of corporate and MIC influence and started working for the benefit of the people again.

I myself really don't give a crap whether China becomes the world's most powerful nation or not. What I admire the most about the CPC is their ability to first provide security and stability to the Chinese people, and then to provide prosperity. With the eradication of extreme poverty, I see a bright future for China where everyone can access basic necessities and have the opportunity to better their lives.
 

solarz

Brigadier
I have occasionally toyed with the idea of writing a "future history" novel running through to the late 21st century. It would be vaguely dystopian and many of the events described would certainly be discomfiting to an Anglo-American audience. Here's a brief outline of some of the events relating to China.

1. Chinese victory over US and Allied forces in a brief (days-weeks), high-intensity sea-air battle. (~2030s)
2. Attempted insurrection within USA as reaction to that defeat, leading to civil war and eventual breakup of the USA into three distinct nations: basically East, South, and California. East will eventually merge with Canada, South descends into brutal apartheid regime, California as hyper-capitalist corporate-ruled dystopia.
3. Chinese suzerainty over and partial occupation of Australia in wake of aforementioned conflict. Note that this is a relatively benign "occupation", though of course there are resistance movements. By the close of the novel the population of Australia is some 25% Chinese and China views Australia as a kind of petri dish in which cultural experiments are made. The framing device for the novel is that the writer is an elderly Anglo-Australian seeking to get his account published through the local Chinese governance apparatus.
4. China emerges as clearly the most powerful nation in the world. Following an engineered virus attack on China (~2060s) which causes tens of millions of deaths, China embarks upon the "wrath of heaven" period in which it hunts down and destroys those responsible around the world over the course of 10-15 years. Essentially analogous to US "War on Terror" but on a greater scale. Major confrontations with Japan and California occur in this period (it is a splinter group within Japan that created the virus, with assistance from entities in California).
5. Towards the close of the novel, in the later part of the 21st century, and in the wake of the "wrath of heaven" period, a new harmony is achieved throughout East Asia as manifest Chinese power is matched with wise forbearance and open generosity. Essentially, China makes material sacrifices that allow Japan, (united) Korea, Formosa, to flourish and feel secure under Chinese hegemony. A shrine is built in what is now North Korea to the eternal unity and harmony of East Asia and millions flock to it each year.

If you switched China with US in the above synopsis, the plot could have come from one of Jeff Head's jingoistic war novels.

That's the problem with you people. You keep projecting Western colonial desires onto China.

Did China "hunt down" terrorists in neighboring stans following the Urumuqi massacres? Or did China work through international organizations like the SCO and strengthen its domestic policies?

Why would China bother with colonizing Australia? Ming China in the Zheng He era was the most powerful maritime nation in Asia. Did they colonize Malaysia or Indonesia? What exactly would colonizing Australia give China? Why do social experiments in a remote region with uncertain loyalty? What value would the results of such experiments have? To find better ways to oppress people?
 

Mohsin77

Junior Member
Registered Member
If the US imposed sanctions on nations like Brazil for cutting down the rainforest, and on Japan for overfishing etc. I'd give it full credit and stop wishing for its immediate demise. They only move if/when there is an immediate short-term profit to be gained, not when they actually need to move for the greater good. The problem with Pax-Anglo-Americana has always been that their fundamental core principles are destructive, self-serving and oligarchic. It's a problem within their axiomatic civilizational ethic, and they have infected most of the planet with their principles. They have all the power to make things right, but none of the wisdom or will to do so, despite their superficial claims of benevolence.
 

ougoah

Major
Registered Member
If the US imposed sanctions on nations like Brazil for cutting down the rainforest, and on Japan for overfishing etc. I'd give it full credit and stop wishing for its immediate demise. They only move if/when there is an immediate short-term profit to be gained, not when they actually need to move for the greater good. The problem with Pax-Anglo-Americana has always been that their fundamental core principles are destructive, self-serving and oligarchic. It's a problem within their axiomatic civilizational ethic, and they have infected most of the planet with their principles. They have all the power to make things right, but none of the wisdom or will to do so, despite their superficial claims of benevolence.

The US has found favourable soft power status ever since the beginning of the Cold War. Anglo US propaganda is U.N.R.I.V.A.L.A.B.L.E because it is relatively subtle and people are all too happy to keep their eyes wide shut... well the fairer minded folks. The others are simply inclined to support the white supremacist and nationalist agendas even if they see the truths.

The issue is they wield soft power to further the agenda of their elite classes and all the corporate and political interests that follow. That deep state is an enemy to really most of humanity but they throw just enough bone to their followers while brutally terrorising the ones who dare to rebel. These are true while most people have not bothered to realign their cognition against the illusions built since the Cold War era. The first rule of being realistic is that there are no saints or devils here. Identifying human problems and nature is fundamental to understanding why things happen the way they do. Anyway both of those things are desperately lost causes.

The examples you used against Brazil and Japan are more issues of differences and holding different positions. For example, it is easy and wrong for a nation of vegetarians to judge and condemn a nation who are not. The reverse is of course also true. We can discuss the issue with respect and understanding but does that happen? Is that method promoted by western culture that is all about exerting dominance and badmouthing/gaslighting until the competition is gone? What the modern era led by the western exceptionists have brought into the zeitgeist is this moronic battle of the identities. I suppose if you can keep your enemies fighting perpetually, it is better? Anyway the point here with what other nations do is that while I agree dialogue and cooperation with common problems e.g. pollution, energy crisis, poverty etc etc, are important to communicate and work together on, there is simply that much more which is unfairly exaggerated and condemned. Difference/different is not necessarily worse or to be unfairly judged. It's important to quantify the issues and review their actual consequences... how much is Brazil cutting down and its consequence? How can the rest support the offset to minimise deforestation if we are concerned? etc... that should be the line of thinking and method of operating but with the Anglo US empire on the loudspeaker, the collective soul of humanity has become nearly as corrupted as its intelligence.
 

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