Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)


ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
Because US mindset is zero sum. If your opponent is zero sum what do you do even if you thought is wrong!

Prepare for worst! You have no choice!

Biden recent ICBM test and
China recent middle course interception of ICBM, a nuke defense shield pretty much debunk your theory of sci fi. It's very real threat.

China calling for WHO investigation of US biological weapon lab hinting US released biological weapon on China.

Possible nuke exchange and biological weapon, This is not fantasy , they are real threat.

China recent speed up of space explorations is real, colonizing in moon, outer space is real.
@Oldschool a counter argument , that's where the Chinese asymmetric warfare came in?( flexibility) A zero sum strategy is effective if you had the advantage across the board. At present we're heading Into a multi polar world and that strategy is ineffective cause its inflexible. Each countries had its owned interest and they will join if their interest coincide. Your example of Ukraine is a good one but their main interest and goal is to be part of EU, all other consideration is put aside. And remember China survive even after being hemmed in both by the Soviet Union and the US during the cold war. What I'm afraid of is that the opposite will happen and the US will be in for a surprises cause alienating both China, Russia and also Iran at the same time is a worst strategic move one leader can make.
 

solarz

Brigadier

I'm starting to think that the real reason Western countries are now ganging up against China is that their elites have realized this is the beginning of a second communist revolution.

Marx theorized that Capitalism is but one stage in the evolution of human society. Capitalists, however, can only retain their power under a Capitalist society. Therefore, they would want to do anything to prevent society from evolving into the post-capitalist stage: socialism. Their solution for the past 70 years has been consumerism.

David Suzuki once decried how insane the idea of a ceaselessly growing economy was, and anyone can see that it *is* insane when we live in a finite world with finite resources. However, almost no one questions this insanity because every participant in the economic system benefits from this unending growth. This is the life line that Capitalism has had for all these years, but now, with Climate Change happening before our eyes, the bill is quickly coming due.

China's threat to the West is not simply its growing strength. If it was only that, the West would have co-opted China to become one of them.

The reason China is a threat is because China refuses to stop striving for that post-capitalist stage of social evolution. You can clearly see this in the history of cooperation began China and the West, who initially welcomed China's entrance into Capitalism with glee. Look back to the 90s, and you will see this eternal refrain: that when China grows economically, it will inevitably grow more "democratic". By this, they really mean the Capitalists will control the country. They always push for general elections because voters can be bought. Without elections, capitalists are at the mercy of politicians who have the backing of the military. With elections, capitalists can use their wealth to access power via election campaigns. It's a truism that in the West, money equals power.

To their frustration however, the West discovered that China would not relinquish state power to the capitalists. China may be growing rich, and there may be an ever growing list of Chinese billionaires, but unlike their counterparts Musk, Gates, or Buffet, Chinese billionaires has no power over the state. Oh they tried. They tried very hard, and might even have succeeded if Xi had not cracked down on corruption at all levels of the public sector.

So the Capitalists of the West could not co-opt China, and suddenly, with the arrival of COVID 19, their time was up. They no longer had any hope of turning China into one of them.

Now, for the first time in maybe a hundred years, the Capitalists are afraid. They are afraid that China's success will finally sound the end of Capitalism. Should society move into Socialism, their power structure would surely collapse.
 

Oldschool

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Oldschool a counter argument , that's where the Chinese asymmetric warfare came in?( flexibility) A zero sum strategy is effective if you had the advantage across the board. At present we're heading Into a multi polar world and that strategy is ineffective cause its inflexible. Each countries had its owned interest and they will join if their interest coincide. Your example of Ukraine is a good one but their main interest and goal is to be part of EU, all other consideration is put aside. And remember China survive even after being hemmed in both by the Soviet Union and the US during the cold war. What I'm afraid of is that the opposite will happen and the US will be in for a surprises cause alienating both China, Russia and also Iran at the same time is a worst strategic move one leader can make.
Of course each country has its own interest but majority of them cannot resist US pressure. Interest is not number 1, survival is number 1
 

Breadbox

Junior Member
Registered Member
European states fighting each other doesnt mean they won't remain anti China.

US is laser focused on China. Especially in Europe, Countries friendly to China will be sanctioned with their livelihood going down to dumpster
Nah, the supposed American allies, especially the Europeans, lacks any strong political or public will to take a side.
The only ones who are interested are those who completely subsumed under the anglo media sphere, whose countries conveniently only exist due to undeniable acts of genocide like their American masters.
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
Now, for the first time in maybe a hundred years, the Capitalists are afraid. They are afraid that China's success will finally sound the end of Capitalism. Should society move into Socialism, their power structure would surely collapse.

Also consider the huge increase in state intervention during the pandemic.

Who would have imagined governments paying workers their salaries for months on end?

It's certainly a shift from American capitalism.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Also consider the huge increase in state intervention during the pandemic.

Who would have imagined governments paying workers their salaries for months on end?

It's certainly a shift from American capitalism.

Actually no. Government paying off the people is not socialism, it's a way for capitalism to prolong its own existence.

Government money comes from taxes, the majority of which comes from workers. So in the end, the workers need to pay anyway, at most it's like a payday loan.

True socialism isn't giving people "free" money, it's to give people the ability to earn their livelihood. The most basic means for that is education. The other means are to provide essential services such as healthcare, childcare, and transportation, so that people can be free to work to better their lives.

Real wealth is not money but the means of production. Capitalists understand this better than anyone, and they are in the business of hoarding those means of production.

Production requires two things: labor and resources. This is why Capitalism goes hand in hand with Colonialism. Even today, Western Capitalism continues to exploit African nations through various schemes to extract their resources for pittances. In the 90s, they were salivating at the prospect of exploiting over a billion cheap laborers.

What they didn't expect was China turning the tables on them and gaining ownership of the means of production. China used the Capitalists' own greed to sign over their technological knowledge. Now China is beating them at their own game, and even worse, China is giving African nations fairer deals for their resources. China is directly threatening Western Capitalism's means of production.

The building conflict between China and the West goes beyond nationalism. The reason so many Western countries are willing to seemingly sacrifice their own national interests to further that of the US can be explained by the fact that "the West" is a supranational entity. It works not for the interests of individual nations (not even those of the US), but for the interests of a "Capitalist caste" that controls the economic engine of the West (and it is very much a common economic engine).

So China's adversary is not just the US, but the entire Western bloc.
 

Laviduce

New Member
Registered Member
Anglo misinformation and propaganda outlet Reuters:

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BEIJING (Reuters) - China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of "great power", a former industry minister said on Sunday, despite boasting the world's most complete industrial supply chains.

In recent years, China has become the world's top manufacturing nation, accounting for over a third of global output, driven by domestic demand to produce everything from motor vehicles to industrial machinery. But its industries' heavy dependence on U.S. high-tech products such as semiconductors constituted a strategic weakness.

"Basic capabilities are still weak, core technologies are in the hands of others, and the risk of 'being hit in the throat' and having 'a slipped bike chain' has significantly increased," said Miao Wei, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for a decade before stepping down last year.

As the Chinese economy pivots towards a services-based model and polluting smoke-stack factories are mothballed, manufacturing output as a share of the economy has declined. In 2020, manufacturing accounted for slightly over a quarter of gross domestic product, the lowest since 2012.

"The ratio of manufacturing output to GDP has been declining too early and too quickly, which not only weighs on economic growth and affects employment, but also brings security loopholes to our industries and diminishes our economy's ability to withstand risks, and its global competitiveness," said Miao, now a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body to the government.

President Xi Jinping said in November that innovation in the manufacturing industry is far from adequate, and firms need to tackle "bottleneck" technologies to become fully innovative.

"China's manufacturing industry has made great achievements in recent years, but the situation of being 'big but not strong' and 'comprehensive but not good' has not been fundamentally changed," Miao said in a speech to CPPCC delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

There are many problems restricting the high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing, but the most fundamental one is insufficient market-oriented reforms, Miao said.

While the tax burden on companies remains heavy, and financial support on the manufacturing sector needs strengthening urgently, a shortage of innovative and high-tech talent has also significantly constrained development of the sector, Miao added.

"We must maintain our strategic resolve, stay clear-headed and deeply understand the gaps and deficiencies."
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What are your thoughts on this article ? China is 30 years away to become a manufacturing great power ?
 

ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
Anglo misinformation and propaganda outlet Reuters:

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BEIJING (Reuters) - China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of "great power", a former industry minister said on Sunday, despite boasting the world's most complete industrial supply chains.

In recent years, China has become the world's top manufacturing nation, accounting for over a third of global output, driven by domestic demand to produce everything from motor vehicles to industrial machinery. But its industries' heavy dependence on U.S. high-tech products such as semiconductors constituted a strategic weakness.

"Basic capabilities are still weak, core technologies are in the hands of others, and the risk of 'being hit in the throat' and having 'a slipped bike chain' has significantly increased," said Miao Wei, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for a decade before stepping down last year.

As the Chinese economy pivots towards a services-based model and polluting smoke-stack factories are mothballed, manufacturing output as a share of the economy has declined. In 2020, manufacturing accounted for slightly over a quarter of gross domestic product, the lowest since 2012.

"The ratio of manufacturing output to GDP has been declining too early and too quickly, which not only weighs on economic growth and affects employment, but also brings security loopholes to our industries and diminishes our economy's ability to withstand risks, and its global competitiveness," said Miao, now a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body to the government.

President Xi Jinping said in November that innovation in the manufacturing industry is far from adequate, and firms need to tackle "bottleneck" technologies to become fully innovative.

"China's manufacturing industry has made great achievements in recent years, but the situation of being 'big but not strong' and 'comprehensive but not good' has not been fundamentally changed," Miao said in a speech to CPPCC delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

There are many problems restricting the high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing, but the most fundamental one is insufficient market-oriented reforms, Miao said.

While the tax burden on companies remains heavy, and financial support on the manufacturing sector needs strengthening urgently, a shortage of innovative and high-tech talent has also significantly constrained development of the sector, Miao added.

"We must maintain our strategic resolve, stay clear-headed and deeply understand the gaps and deficiencies."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


What are your thoughts on this article ? China is 30 years away to become a manufacturing great power ?
@Laviduce Comprehensive National Power, me think the former minister is being modest ,I predict 2035 or 2038 is achievable
 

abenomics12345

Just Hatched
Registered Member
This is one of the first times I'm posting here, but I wanted to share this podcast with ex. Commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command Tony Thomas discussing competition with China.

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solarz

Brigadier
Anglo misinformation and propaganda outlet Reuters:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


BEIJING (Reuters) - China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of "great power", a former industry minister said on Sunday, despite boasting the world's most complete industrial supply chains.

In recent years, China has become the world's top manufacturing nation, accounting for over a third of global output, driven by domestic demand to produce everything from motor vehicles to industrial machinery. But its industries' heavy dependence on U.S. high-tech products such as semiconductors constituted a strategic weakness.

"Basic capabilities are still weak, core technologies are in the hands of others, and the risk of 'being hit in the throat' and having 'a slipped bike chain' has significantly increased," said Miao Wei, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for a decade before stepping down last year.

As the Chinese economy pivots towards a services-based model and polluting smoke-stack factories are mothballed, manufacturing output as a share of the economy has declined. In 2020, manufacturing accounted for slightly over a quarter of gross domestic product, the lowest since 2012.

"The ratio of manufacturing output to GDP has been declining too early and too quickly, which not only weighs on economic growth and affects employment, but also brings security loopholes to our industries and diminishes our economy's ability to withstand risks, and its global competitiveness," said Miao, now a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body to the government.

President Xi Jinping said in November that innovation in the manufacturing industry is far from adequate, and firms need to tackle "bottleneck" technologies to become fully innovative.

"China's manufacturing industry has made great achievements in recent years, but the situation of being 'big but not strong' and 'comprehensive but not good' has not been fundamentally changed," Miao said in a speech to CPPCC delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

There are many problems restricting the high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing, but the most fundamental one is insufficient market-oriented reforms, Miao said.

While the tax burden on companies remains heavy, and financial support on the manufacturing sector needs strengthening urgently, a shortage of innovative and high-tech talent has also significantly constrained development of the sector, Miao added.

"We must maintain our strategic resolve, stay clear-headed and deeply understand the gaps and deficiencies."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


What are your thoughts on this article ? China is 30 years away to become a manufacturing great power ?

Sounds like the former minister is now a member of the SFA.
 

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