Hong-Kong Protests

KYli said:

This movement is no longer anti-China but instead it is anti-Chinese. Just look at Taiwan today, I don't see much hope. Tribalism and populism are quite different from the counterculture movement such as hippie. For all these years, DPP has easily reignited resentment towards KMT and manipulated election result to win elections after elections even though it has failed miserably to lead Taiwan.

Same thing with the anti-establishment parties in HK, they are stuck with the radicals. They would get buried if they tried to cut tie with the radicals. From this election, it clearly shows that they are willing to discredit the election results if things didn't go in their way. Rumors are every where and people have started to surround many poll stations til most results showing their candidates are winning.

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Some aspects are different, yes, but certainly the radicals are closer to counter culture than true political activism. Universal suffrage was put into Basic Law, I don't think PRC would do it if they thought it could be used against them in a meaningful way. If there was some political reform to grant direct elections of LegCo and CE, you would more likely have internecine warfare along party lines than a coherent anti-PRC movement.

What is it to be anti-Chinese? This is a question that they will have to come to terms with in the future. Will they choose an absurdist route and start calling Cantonese and Traditional character combination as "Hongkongese" or something? What beyond this?

DPP has stoked all the anti-China sentiment all these years, but Taiwan Independence is less likely now than ever before. Wages are low and quality of life is suffering. DPP cut pension benefits, and caused a loss in Kaohsiung, their former stronghold. Politics can only hold over pragmatism for so long.

KYli said:

Not so sure that would be the case. The central government still prefers listing in SEHK than NYSE. Financial services would be the last sector that the central government would tackle. I foresee trading and logistics, tourism, and producer and professional services to be moving away from HK. The Pearl River Delta economic zone would try to lure away the producer and professional services from Hong Kong by giving incentives and tax exempt for companies to move their operations there. Same thing with trading and logistics. Tourism to HK would be tackled by lowering the VAT.

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The 4 bigs of HK's economy. This is why HK needs competent leadership for the future. Simply being "anti-China" will not be enough. Everyone can see the writing on the wall for all of these sectors, and they won't be solved by burning PRC flags or sticking up Post-It notes.

Jura said:

when I entered a high school in 1986,

in then-Czechoslovakia the neo-Stalinists (who indirectly opposed Gorbachev) appeared to last forever,

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Conditions in all countries cannot be compared directly.
Chief difference, Czechoslovakia is tiny compared to China.
Second, China is not run by hardline Stalinists. It is a pretty open country where people can come and go for the most part. People have seen America, Canada, or whatever.

Anecdotally, it is not unusual to hear Chinese people in Canada have some reservations about being here. Mainly that they gave up better income opportunity, but the reasons they stay are not political, usually something like University education is easier to get for their kids, air is cleaner, city is less crowded.

The democracy movement in Eastern Europe that ended the Cold War started in China. Did China fall like Eastern European countries? Of course they forget that fact. I remember reading an article where Eastern Europeans after the fall resented China for not falling. Why would they care? It wasn't because of anti-communism. It was because they all that money they saw invested in China they thought was suppose to go to them. There was article about a month ago that Vietnam is already experiencing their limits as a manufacturing outsourcing destination and it. What they said Vietnam was going to take from China they already reaching capacity and it's actually costing more manufacturing in Vietnam. Do Eastern Europe and Hong Kong have their own resources? Unless they're content with what they have, none are ever going to be a powerhouse country. They're going to be dependent on bigger powers. Americans aren't going to sacrifice their lives for Hong Kong. That's the job of Hong Kongers so Americans don't suffer losses. Which country is going to commit an act of war and send weapons to Hong Kongers? I know Americans passively support or who don't even care about what's happening in Hong Kong but they laugh at the sight of these protestors committing violence while carrying an umbrella.

supersnoop said:

Some aspects are different, yes, but certainly the radicals are closer to counter culture than true political activism. Universal suffrage was put into Basic Law, I don't think PRC would do it if they thought it could be used against them in a meaningful way. If there was some political reform to grant direct elections of LegCo and CE, you would more likely have internecine warfare along party lines than a coherent anti-PRC movement.

What is it to be anti-Chinese? This is a question that they will have to come to terms with in the future. Will they choose an absurdist route and start calling Cantonese and Traditional character combination as "Hongkongese" or something? What beyond this?

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The people pulling the strings behind the scene want much more than the central government would ever be willing to give to them. These rioters are not meant for the HK government. The aim is always at the central government be it the radicals or Jimmy Lai. As unrealistic may it be, they truly believe they could bring down the Chinese economy and Xi.



If mounting international pressure coincides with an economic slowdown and job losses, China could change, speculates Lai. "That doesn't mean that the Communist Party will collapse," he adds. "But it might mean that Xi would have to step down and a more liberal government will take over and slowly we will be on the right way." But there is no sign of this happening anytime soon.

manqiangrexue said:

Lastly, independence of Hong Kong is something that is not tolerable for even one second to any Chinese patriot.

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I am reconsidering. But not because of your remark -- I changed my mind last night.

If Hong Kong should declare independence, Beijing should send the army, as the central government has promised to do if Taiwan should try to separate. The military action would not be falling into the rioters' trap; there would be no violation of One Country, Two Systems, as Hong Kong would already have nullified it by splitting from China and creating two countries. Many nations have already quelled rebellions forcefully, including the USA; the world would understand the military response by China.

After taking over Hong Kong, the first thing Beijing would do would be to eliminate the island's oligarchs. The tycoons must understand that -- so I dare them to support independence for Hong Kong!

KYli said:

The problem is not about the votes. The problem is that the HK people have spoken. And they are supporting the rioters which gave the rioters legitimacy. That would embolden and encourage the rioters to take extreme measures. Either the central government caves or they would face months or even years of unrest in HK.

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Actually, the HK people are calling the rioters cockroaches, not supporting them. Note that there were no riots on election day; the thugs know that the people don't like them.

I think the Hong Kong vote shows that the people want attention from Beijing. They are basically asking for help, but are too proud to admit it.

Nutrient said:

Actually, the HK people are calling the rioters cockroaches, not supporting them. Note that there were no riots on election day; the thugs know that the people don't like them.

I think the Hong Kong vote shows that the people want attention from Beijing. They are basically asking for help, but are too proud to admit it.

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For the last 2 decades at the HK legislative elections, the anti-establishment parties have always won between 55%-60% of the votes. Admittedly, I was hoping the silent majority does exist but this district election result proved that is not true. I am not going to bury my head in the sand and pretend otherwise.

There are way more instances that the HKPF was harassed by the HK people than when the HK people are calling the rioters cockroaches. No riots on election day is due to the fact that the oppositions are afraid the HK government would cancel the election. HK people don't want attention from Beijing but they do want attention from the world. They want to be in the spot light and cheer by the westerners and the western media and think they are some kinds of martyrs. The only thing they want from the Beijing is that the Beijing would bow to them and their 5 demands.

KYli said:

If mounting international pressure coincides with an economic slowdown and job losses, China could change, speculates Lai. "That doesn't mean that the Communist Party will collapse," he adds. "But it might mean that Xi would have to step down and a more liberal government will take over and slowly we will be on the right way." But there is no sign of this happening anytime soon.

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These idiots really have no idea about the kind of fire they're playing with. Should the stars align and lightning strike twice and they get their wish, what comes after Xi won't be a more liberal government - it would be a far more hard-line government. It would be a revolutionary government with a revolutionary mandate, and it wouldn't think twice about drowning Hong Kong in blood. The horrors inflicted on them would pale their worst lies and most fevered fabrications about Tiananmen.

Jimmy Lie won't experience this firsthand, of course. He'd be safe and sound in whatever Western country he bought a citizenship to with his ill-gotten wealth. But the idiots chanting the slogans his think-tank came up with would definitely experience it.

KYli said:

Admittedly, I was hoping the silent majority does exist but this district election result proved that is not true. I am not going to bury my head in the sand and pretend otherwise.

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So what? It doesn't matter how many support the rioters, they're never going to get what they want. All they and their Western backers can do is irritate China, nothing more.

It's ironic that the protestors are celebrating an already planned election they say they were being denied and undermined hence why they get to riot. In the US, a state can't secede without permission of the US Congress no matter how many people voted in that state for it. For Hong Kong to declare independence, that would be breaking the treaty and the PLA can roll in. The way you see politics work in places like the US and Australia, I'm sure Beijing can make a case of foreign interference thus breaking the treaty.

ZeEa5KPul said:

So what? It doesn't matter how many support the rioters, they're never going to get what they want. All they and their Western backers can do is irritate China, nothing more.

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Of course they are not going to get what they want. But Taiwan DDP already got what they want. As for the US, the best outcome is CCP send in the troops but the situation in HK still gives them enough ammunition to demonic China.

vincent said:

after the Great Leap Forward, of course the life expectancy and the economy increased

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The Great Leap Forward ended in 1962. The Cultural Revolution did not start til 1966. The years inbetween gave plenty of time for birth rates and economic activity to recover from the droughts in the early 1960s. The point is, for the vast majority of China's population, the Cultural Revolution was an enormous improvement on top of that.