Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

Bltizo said:

Having no influence over the governance of HK will be unacceptable to Beijing, do the protesters know this? Even if the central government does decide to compromise and give greater election freedoms, it's not like they're just going to leave things there without a say or final veto on important matters.
Unless the protesters want to escalate things towards violence, I doubt Beijing will directly intervene with its own police forces (or things really hit the fan, PLA) either. Afterall, the damage to the economy will be localized to HK anyway, vastly different to 1989, so any economic pains will be endured by the local populace.


All those social media videos and protesters wanting the police to join them are traits of virtually any protest movement. Doubly effective in this case, because democracy-oppression-china-human rights-freedom.

It's always interesting to hear things from another's perspective, air superiorty, but in this case,the protester-tear jerker (no pun intended) accounts of what is going on probably won't move many posters on this forum given its predominantly ML chinese makeup, with vastly different views as to what constitutes reasonable protest and the right of authority to intervene. I have some degree of sympathy, but some posers here, and many on CDF are substantially more cynical.


It will be interesting to see how overseas Chinese both HK and ML respond to each other about this topic.

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Bltizo said:

You didn't ask me, but I'll respond anyway.

Q1: they've successfully changed things through public demonstration in recent years, but there are a few fundamentals that the powers that be simply won't accept. Democracy like what they want, without any oversight from Beijing, almost definitely isn't going to happen -- and if it does, then you can be sure things will come back with a vengeance after one country two systems expires in 2047. Unity has been the bedrock "ideology" (if one wants to call it that) for modern China, with its roots from the opium war when territories became dispossessed. China won't allow the situation to dramatically move away from that, full stop.

Q2: once protests reach a certain level of public disruption, the authorities have the right to use means they see fit to control the crowd. The specific graded mechanisms they use will differ of course, obviously you don't go from regular police to sending in the army overnight. The degree of violence/rioting also plays a role too, of course. If a protest is only disruptive but not excessively violent (whether it be to passers by or protesters or police), and not damaging to property, then a response should be tailored as such. From what I can see, the HKPF's response seems fairly standard compared to police responses in western countries to their own occupy movements.

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Bltizo said:

As for psychological cohesion and "hong kongers shouldn't hurt hong kongers" -- forgive my cynicism, but again, that is almost present in every kind of protest of this type.

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Brumby said:

Don't fall into the trap of being misdirected and getting drained on issues that are not directly related. It is a very common on this forum when posters either intentionally or ignorantly will bring up topics that are not connected when they can't deal with the relevant issues substantively or directly.

As to the issue of property prices, what is frustrating in my view is that we are not dealing with a level playing field because of speculative money that are questionable in nature e.g. from corruption. There is no way ordinary people can compete with those kind of resources. When I was based in HK in 1991-92, there were already plenty of stories regarding mainlanders buying properties in Repulse Bay (where I was living as an expat) carrying money in suit cases. If you know HK, you should also know how expensive properties are in Repulse Bay even in those days.

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Brumby said:

I generally share your sentiments. There are a couple of things I will add though. Firstly, the pro democracy movements want to embed within the system as much of the democratic foundation before 2047 as it is fundamentally more difficult to unwind anything that is rooted. Secondly, there is a major assumption that the CCP in its present form and policies will survive to 2047 and beyond - it may not be a given.

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airsuperiority said:

Hmm good point. Thanks for the reminder

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Bltizo said:

First point, yes, I suspect that is definitely a goal. Personally, I don't view democracy as a threat so long as China retains a degree of veto power over HK, as long as HK is not used as a base for foreign agents to enter China, and so long as any HK government understands any attempt to publicly subvert the central government will be unacceptable.

Second point, yes, I suspect that is also a latent hope among many people globally. That said, there are a sheer number of ML Chinese in China and abroad who do believe in the particular cause of unity. I also suspect the old guard of the CCP from fifty years ago, despite their vast ideological differences to today's CCP, would mostly praise the changes that have occurred if they could see modern China, despite changes in ideology. At the end of the day, the goal is the strengthening of the country, rather than ideological fundamentalism. Pragmatism should outweigh ideology, whether it be ironbound adherence to democracy or maoism.

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texx1 said:

While I sympathize with young protesters wanting to air out their grievances over economic reasons, their actions if continue are going to do them and Hong Kong a great disservice. HK's economy has three main pillars: finance, real estate, tourism. All of them are going to be negatively affected by this occupy central movement (instability) if it continues long after the national day holiday.

With the opening of free trade zone and commodity exchange in Shanghai, HK is steadily losing its competitive advantage as a middleman facilitating trade between China and west. Tourism industry was somewhat damaged by the overzealous and misguided anti-locust (essentially anti mainlander) campaign. One can't go piss off the biggest tourist segment and expect no repercussions. With the increased disposable income of mainlanders, they have many travelling choices, places that make them feel welcome. Essentially, time and circumstances have changed for Hong Kong. China has opened its door for business for many years. Hong Kong can no longer afford to remain complacent and aloof (to mainlanders) while expecting businesses and economic opportunities to come to them by its outdated virtue of being the gateway between China and the rest of the world.

The same applies to HK youths and young adults, they have to devote more time into education and skill training in order to improve their own competitiveness for a more challenging future than their parents' generation . I hope students protesting for economical reasons go back to school after the national holiday. Protesting peacefully and political activism are all good as long as they have their priority straight. A person with bad grades and no marketable skills is not going to get any good job offers regardless of the political system.

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