Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Could you share the source for this "40% of Japanese youth are pro China"? This is the first time I hear of it. I always thought the vast majority of Japanese are anti China.
Sure, this is actually a more obscure source that wasn't widely reported on Japanese media but was written by a Japanese author on a Singaporean website.

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In the Public Opinion Survey on Diplomacy by the Cabinet Office of Japan conducted at the end of 2021, just over 10% of respondents in their 60s and 70s — those with the harshest attitudes toward China — answered that they felt “close, friendly or familiar” with China. On the other end of the spectrum, over 40% of respondents aged 18 to 29 gave the same response. This indicates that the younger generations are more likely to have better perceptions of China.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Could you share the source for this "40% of Japanese youth are pro China"? This is the first time I hear of it. I always thought the vast majority of Japanese are anti China.
but you are correct. Vast majority of Japanese are anti China because the generation 18-29 is far smaller than the old generation. Japanese birth rate exploded in the 40's-50's, then peaked in the 70's. This isn't a problem though because nobody cheats age. China just has to wait the hostiles out and let the Japanese youth take power.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
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lol Japanese regime never disappoints with their unrepentant fascism. Hoping that Japanese youth that are 40% pro China will take over soon. When their GDP per capita falls under 30k while China's rises above 20k and has their oil tanker lifeline in hand, the fascist LDP will be relegated to dustbin of history. Japanese deserve better than their current regime which is leading them into poverty and destruction.

Well, look at how much of the LDP leadership is related to the Japanese government leaders in charge during WW2. For example, Shinzo Abe's grandfather was a minister in the Japanese war cabinet. He was also in charge of Manchuria during the wars to conquer China and build a Japanese Empire

How can you expect Shinzo Abe to denounce his grandfather? After all, the only problem with WW2 was that Imperial Japan didn't win, not because a Colonial Empire was bad. That extends to the Sino-Japanese wars where Japan acquired Taiwan and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

And better Japan-China relations require the Japanese government to acknowledge this publicly like Germany.

In retrospect, the Americans made a huge mistake when they didn't abolish the Japanese Emperor, make Japan a Republic and allowed the existing WW2 establishment to continue in power as the post-war LDP government.

In comparison, Germany was thoroughly de-Nazified after WW2.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Well, look at how much of the LDP leadership is related to the Japanese government leaders in charge during WW2. For example, Shinzo Abe's grandfather was a minister in the Japanese war cabinet. He was also in charge of Manchuria during the wars to conquer China and build a Japanese Empire

How can you expect Shinzo Abe to denounce his grandfather? After all, the only problem with WW2 was that Imperial Japan didn't win, not because a Colonial Empire was bad. That extends to the Sino-Japanese wars where Japan acquired Taiwan and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

And better Japan-China relations require the Japanese government to acknowledge this publicly like Germany.

In retrospect, the Americans made a huge mistake when they didn't abolish the Japanese Emperor, make Japan a Republic and allowed the existing WW2 establishment to continue in power as the post-war LDP government.

In comparison, Germany was thoroughly de-Nazified after WW2.
US failed to denazify Japan. true. But they also didn't fully denazify Germany.
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Neither was truly a mistake. Keeping a portion of the fascists around made sure that they would always have disputes with their neighbors and will be dependent on US patronage.

I don't expect Japan under LDP regime to ever apologize. The solution to the Japanese problem is a semi-peaceful regime change where DPJ/CPJ come to power after LDP is discredited after defeat/forced inaction in either economic or military conflict.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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This isn't a problem though because nobody cheats age. China just has to wait the hostiles out and let the Japanese youth take power.
For the first statement, give medical technology a while. For the second, this isn't how power politics works. China isn't waiting anybody out, it's building its strength until it becomes impossible to challenge.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
For the first statement, give medical technology a while. For the second, this isn't how power politics works. China isn't waiting anybody out, it's building its strength until it becomes impossible to challenge.
both can be true. Japanese youth are less hostile overall, because they're in a weaker position than their elders. The stronger China's position, the less hostile Japanese youth are. The entrenched older Japanese who hate China won't change their minds. That's OK, they won't last long.
 

Chevalier

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A short article about this.

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China unilaterally changes the status quo, in the Taiwan Straits, which by implication, changes the relationship between China and America too.

The Americans will do nothing about it.

Simply because they do not have an effective card to play.

At the moment at least, they will resort to the usual, which will accomplish nothing.
That meeting might be the last best chance for peace but who am I kidding? Biden is an empty suit, a corpse king tied to a horse to fool friend and foe alike, el cid style.
.
I will go on a limb and say PLA has the highest personnel quality of conventional army. By that I mean average soldiers not some hand picked special forces. All soldiers are patriotic, fully volunteers picked from tight filters. Command culture is very flexible since its formation not to mention the recent reforms that further improved the beaucracy side of things. China on average has high education and a culture of working hard as well.

The size of Chinese population makes sure the military can stay full volunteer even in a major war. That is another major factor will make it best disciplined army when it trully matters. See US army in peaceful time and they seem well disciplined. The moment conscription happens like Vietnam and their quality will fall off the cliff. Volunteer vs drafted has a HUGE difference in morale and discipline.
The US uses soft conscription by exploiting poverty and immigrant ie Hispanic areas. This is where you get white identifying hispanics and African Americans making up the poor bloody infantry.
Status quo has already changed.
1- State visits to Taiwan are normal
2- The median line and the Taiwanese territorial waters are no more

This is the new normal.
What western politician is going to compromise his and his family’s financial future For the sake of token gestures which will simply result in the PLA salami slicing Taiwanese air and sea control?
Washington money is no longer infinite when you consider hyperinflation and the loss of china as the buyer of last resort of US treasuries
 
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