Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Bellum_Romanum]

The guy is a blowhard of Russian military power and Russian technologies. He is pretty ignorant of Chinese technologies and Chinese military. He sometimes is delusional in thinking Russia is still a superpower on par with the US and China is behind Russia is many ways. He could be good at lashing out at the "combined West," but his tirade can get old.

Andrei does reminds me of these past their prime fighters who still cling to their bygone glory days, which makes it difficult to accept that their once pipsqueak/backward China (whom the Soviets assisted a lot during their brief partnership years) is now being touted as the sole rival a.k.a. all encompassing threat to the U.S. not to mention a sense of Russian a.k.a. White supremacist thinking that China isn't what they cracked up to be.

He doesn't seem to understand or appreciate that ACME of fighting is not fighting at all. His whole spiel is that if you have power use it as a hammer against all your enemies. The Russian results thus far speaks for itself.

 

[Overbom]

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White House Nears Road Map on Taiwan Trade Amid China Discord​

• US, Taiwan aim to hold talks to strengthen economic ties

The Biden administration will unveil details for trade talks with Taiwan soon, White House Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell said, a move likely to inflame tensions with China already high following US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island and military drills by Beijing.

“We’re developing an ambitious roadmap for trade negotiations which we intend to announce in the coming days,” Campbell told reporters Friday.

 

[Minm]

This time, however, the EU's businesses would be fully warned. I doubt they would support serious sanctions against China; many of their largest corporations, such as Airbus and Volkswagen, are heavily invested in the Chinese market, and would be loathe to sacrifice their profits over something as trivial (by their reckoning) as Taiwan.

It all depends on the speed of the operation. The longer fighting continues on Taiwan, the more pressure there'll be for European companies to pull out of China and the more support there'll be for sanctions and a trade war.

If there are mass surrenders and Taiwan is taken within a week or two, then there'll be a lot less. Just like in Afghanistan, nobody is going to fight for people who don't fight for themselves.

 

[Overbom]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558137216228114432

 

[PeregrineFalcon]

The guy is a blowhard of Russian military power and Russian technologies. He is pretty ignorant of Chinese technologies and Chinese military. He sometimes is delusional in thinking Russia is still a superpower on par with the US and China is behind Russia is many ways. He could be good at lashing out at the "combined West," but his tirade can get old.

I used to read his articles but stopped since I didn't like his overtly dimissive attitude towards china and it's armed force. I prefer a blanced and rational view. If some things are not up to standard or if china doesn't have the tech yet it's ok to say so but I dislike him speaking as if everything chinese is 2nd rate. (same for that Rudd guy, used to think he was ok and balanced when I first listened to him)

 

[horse]

That is why the Americans declined to escalate this current crisis. In terms of military, diplomacy, economics, the Chinese are using gray-warfare to leverage all of that, in ways the Americans are unable to counter.

The Americans will not be able to counter this for a while, what the Chinese side is presenting at the moment. That is why the old woman Pelosi was saying the other day that they cannot allow China to impose this new normal in the Taiwan Strait. What a complete amateur.

A short article about this.

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China unilaterally changes the status quo, in the Taiwan Straits, which by implication, changes the relationship between China and America too.

The Americans will do nothing about it.

Simply because they do not have an effective card to play.

At the moment at least, they will resort to the usual, which will accomplish nothing.

 

[Strangelove]

May have been posted already....

USS Ronny Reagan demonstrating US military resolve and its position of strength..... by fleeing to the Japan.

 

[horse]

The Americans will do nothing about it.

Simply because they do not have an effective card to play.

One facet of this game, is that the United States wants to be the one wearing the white hat, and China should be wearing the black hat.

Other countries want to be on the side of justice.

The problem is that those who want to wear the white hat, cannot be that belligerent.

That Pelosi visit, was over the top. She brought along the entire US military to ensure her visit happens. This was diplomacy belligerence.

China reserved the right to change the status quo, in the name of protecting its interests against American belligerence.

Countries will understand that. China had the power to do something about American belligerence. That was the mood in the room.


All these FONP does not move the needle. But that is all the Americans have right now.

The Pelosi visit was a push by the Americans. The Chinese pushed back harder. The Americans have no effective reply at the moment.

The Americans can come back with more military assets, but if they do that, they no longer wear the white hat.

America is not a part of Asia. If their role in Asia is to wear the black hat, they will be losing relevance. This curtails their options. They cannot appear to be belligerent. That is why Pelosi is not coming back anytime soon. That is why the US military must thread carefully.

On the other hand, China expanded its own options, after this incident. One reason being is that the changing of the status quo gave China more power to act. Those with more power, have more options.

That is why the Americans, the politicians and media, abruptly shut up. They are stupid, but not that stupid to the point where they do not realize what just happened, because they do realize what just happened.

Only deep green is like that.

 

[horse]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558137216228114432

No big deal.

This is a dumb idea, little wonder someone like Sturat Lau would breathless report it.

Japan will not join. If they do, expect China to do something against Japan, which Japan has tried to avoid for all these years.

If these other countries are all Western countries, then this will not sell in this neighbourhood. This is just the 21st Century version of White Man's burden. Not talking about China here, but the others in the region, and those countries will truly resent this.

China could do this, if they choose. The PLAN can announce some live shipping interdiction training exercises.

China could do something, if this happens, but seems unlikely. The AUSUK was greeted with criticism in the region. The same people pulling different stunts, will probably generate the same disapproval.

China should just point out the obvious. Someone insists on being the provocateur.

 

[getready]

Only one in three US voters can locate Taiwan – or Ukraine

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Even that figure is way too high. It has to be around 1 in 10 at most