Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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tres

New Member
Thank you for this comment, and please know that I will be completely sincere in this response. Perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in other ones, lol, but I am going to be completely sincere in this one.

I totally agree with you re: a counterproductive dynamic. I just think we’re operating from very different pretexts, since you seem to think peaceful unification is possible (which is not the case for me, for reasons below). I actually think I understand why the Chinese think Taiwan should be part of China. Historically(well, up until 1895 happened) and culturally(well, up until we were cut off for 4 decades or so), it makes far more sense for Taiwan to be part of China than independent. I think the closest analogy would be Hokkaido and Japan: fairly recently colonized (by the Japanese from Honshu, in this case, about two centuries after Koxinga removed the Dutch), some geographical barriers (though of course, the Tsugaru Strait is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait), a fairly significant indigenous population that was brutally dispersed, etc. The difference however, is that the 清 dynasty was incompetent, arrogant, debaucherous, and senile, and couldn’t even hold on to one of their most lucrative and quickly-modernizing provinces, unlike the Japanese who reformed and beat the Russians decisively. As the Athenians once said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” C’est la vie.

Ok, that was a pretty significant detour and this isn’t supposed to be a history lesson. The issue, I think, that is causing all the moral theater is that most Taiwanese no longer think it possible to convince the Chinese of Taiwan’s independence. Peaceful independence has always been a pipe dream, and other options such as 一國兩制 are no longer acceptable after seeing what happened to Hong Kong. I recall 真普選, 雨傘革, and 反送中 very vividly. I’m going to be frank with you: I no longer think peaceful unification is possible. The recent comments from your ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, has only solidified this view. I’m sure you’ve heard, but he insisted that the Taiwanese will be subjected to “re-education” after unification. Your government is going to subject us to the same treatment as Uyghurs, who were bombing train stations and randomly stabbing people in the streets, while I am pretty sure that there have been nada Taiwanese terrorism attacks. 是可忍,孰不可忍?

Considering that we are currently outnumbered, outspent, out-teched by the Chinese, plus engaging in dialogue appears to be futile (considering the gulf between our two peoples, not to mention governments), what else is there to do but condescend and engage in vague moral concepts such as democracy and human rights? It’s one of the final joys left to a people who is likely to suffer great pain and suffering sometime in the decades to come. I care about moral theater not because I don’t care about practical outcomes, but because I cannot see any practical outcome that is acceptable to me. Why should we unify if we are fine on our own? If we unify, is there a future where we choose our own leadership through free and fair elections, where we can assemble in the streets and protest the government, and where we can post funny pictures of Xi Jinping as Winnie? (Actually, I think you can do the latter now if I’m correct, but that initial censoring was so bizarre.) Would such an 一國兩制 be even remotely acceptable to the CCP? I think not, though I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

I just don’t think there is such a future short of some miracle where a) the Chinese people are collectively brainwashed into thinking Taiwan is independent, b) Taiwan breaks a blockade, throws the PLA back across the Taiwan Strait, and avoids starving to death, or c) the Chinese economy inexplicably collapses. Short of these, it’s likely that I would die in the war or be re-educated sometime in my late-twenties to early-thirties, and that is just f-ing unfortunate. So, so, so f-ing unfortunate.

So to all the Chinese people reading this, forgive the 灣灣’s condescension and snobbishness. It is about the only thing left to these Taiwanese who see clearly that we are the Melians to the Chinese’s Athenians, and yet will not, cannot, stomach the thought of simply laying down without a fight. Many of us are, I believe, stuck between a rock and a hard place. So we try to 富國強兵 as best as we can, and we laugh at the Chinese on the internet whenever we get the chance, while we try to not think too hard about the 東風 and 鷹擊 ready to blow us to bits. At the same time, I’m sorry about the mockery and condescension, but some of you must realize how ridiculous figures like 華春瑩 are, right? Recent tweet of “palates don’t cheat” being exhibit A. (I can lay out why I think it was absolutely hilarious if any of y'all are interested. )

I apologize for any emotional discourse. In the meantime, in the interest of convincing at least some Chinese that Taiwan is indeed currently de facto independent, I will take any questions you may have on this matter. I’m not sure how many of you don’t think Taiwan is de facto independent, but regardless, I’m open to questions. And I will try to avoid any condescension or moral theater whatsoever. Whether Taiwan should be independent is another matter entirely. I personally think it should be subjected to a referendum like the Quebec or Scottish ones, with the terms of a referendum laid out in an act (something like the Clarity Act in Canada) passed by the Legislative Yuan to legitimize the secession of a region from the ROC. The reality of the situation, however, is that the PRC will do what they please ‘cuz they got the big guns. There is no “justice” to be discussed ‘til we also get some big guns.

TL;DR: practical outcomes outside of war hopeless, chances of persuading Chinese people of Taiwanese independence nil, open to discourse but to me it is probably useless anyhow, still, open to questions.
A lot of nonsenses from a squatter. The land belongs to China as recognized by almost every country on earth and the UN. If you kept telling the owner you were not part of the family, you will be evicted.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Once you launch a ballistic missile that goes 8000 km, the other country is automatically going to think it's nuclear tipped. Keep in mind that DF-26 can have nuclear warhead, but nobody is saying DF-26 can't get used. If China is concerned about not being able to strike continental USA, then it should wait until H20 and 095s are ready for action.

A DF-27 with 8000 km range only reaches Seattle . The rest of the continental USA is out of range.

And bear in mind that a DF-27 is going to be an expensive missile, somewhere between a DF-26 ($20? Million) and an ICBM ($60? Million). There simply will not be large conventional salvoes with hundreds of missiles that could be mistaken for a massive first strike.

And I don't see an urgent requirement to strike the continental USA. Within a 8000km missile range, US airbases (like Hawaii) can be hit.

That means large vulnerable aircraft like bombers and tankers would be neutralised as 8000km is too far a distance for them to reach China. Note that a DF-27 strike would still be far cheaper than the cost of any bombers and tankers stuck on the ground.
 

getready

Senior Member
KMT is a joke. It is just a complete waste of time to meet them.
Agree. Waste of time.

They may be cucked by Americans but mainland tolerate them cuz at least they provide some resistance to the pro independence agenda DPP is pursuing.

Unfortunately, the thing is kmt is almost completely irrelevant nowadays. Out played and out manuvered by the DPP. Useless .
 

tygyg1111

Senior Member
Registered Member
It is not today CN has weakened its own deterrence against country sending official delegations to Taiwan but in the past with their empty useless warning. But pelosi visit will accelerate this trend

For years I wondered if CN had a clear strategy about TW. I'm still skeptical they have one.

Just another flashback Wednesday.

It's interesting to review past comments now that the dust has settled. Going through the old messages I'm convinced that there should be a bad takes thread.

It also goes to show how much the US has unravelled in the past few years:
- Running away from Afghanistan
- 1 Mil covid deaths
- Achieved mega inflation at home
- And now, own goal achieving normalization of TW blockade with Pelosi's visit
 

9dashline

Senior Member
Registered Member
Just another flashback Wednesday.

It's interesting to review past comments now that the dust has settled. Going through the old messages I'm convinced that there should be a bad takes thread.

It also goes to show how much the US has unravelled in the past few years:
- Running away from Afghanistan
- 1 Mil covid deaths
- Achieved mega inflation at home
- And now, own goal achieving normalization of TW blockade with Pelosi's visit
Of this list, the fact that they can no longer print as much as they want without suffering borderline hyperinflation is the big one.... without the advantage the US wont be able to sustain its empire
 

a0011

New Member
Registered Member
Once you launch a ballistic missile that goes 8000 km, the other country is automatically going to think it's nuclear tipped. Keep in mind that DF-26 can have nuclear warhead, but nobody is saying DF-26 can't get used. If China is concerned about not being able to strike continental USA, then it should wait until H20 and 095s are ready for action.
That type of very timid and cowardly thinking is so very dangerous in a war. It's plenty obvious in a conventional war fought by countries with Nuclear deterrence + second strike that you NEVER assume a strike will be nuclear. All inbound stikes are treated as conventional until proven otherwise.

Also you fight a was with the weapons that you have not weapons you want. Otherwise you will making excuses not taking actions until the end times.
 
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