Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
View attachment 94376

"Yanzhen Yidai"

It was the expression i read yesterday thanks to this forum, and this morning looking for its meaning i found this saying or expression
Old Man Hu wrote
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in a "well first, let me explain the historical context of when this phrase was first spoken, so that you can understand the tone of the message so you won't be surprised at the level of ass kicking you're about to receive from the PLA" sort of way.

Unfortunately he's essay is also in Chinese.o_O
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
We've basically got the same situation as before the Russian-Ukrainian war and western government officials were playing guess the day of invasion.
No, this is different. Back during RU-UA invasion phase, the final decision rested with Putin.

This time, the people making the key decision are in the US. They are just pretending to be opposed to her trip as a good cop/bad routine to fool the Chinese. Thankfully, Beijing isn't taking the bait and understands this as what it is: a concerted effort by the united establishment of the US to change the status quo on Taiwan.
 

MixedReality

Junior Member
Registered Member
No, this is different. Back during RU-UA invasion phase, the final decision rested with Putin.

This time, the people making the key decision are in the US. They are just pretending to be opposed to her trip as a good cop/bad routine to fool the Chinese. Thankfully, Beijing isn't taking the bait and understands this as what it is: a concerted effort by the united establishment of the US to change the status quo on Taiwan.

Agree. This is why China need to be very forceful. If China shows a weak response to this, it will further erode one-China principle.

This is not just showing China’s strength to the US, but to everyone in the region not to mess with China.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Agree. This is why China need to be very forceful. If China shows a weak response to this, it will further erode one-China principle.

This is not just showing China’s strength to the US, but to everyone in the region not to mess with China.
If the current leadership shows weak response then I don't see why Xi should stay as President for another term at all period. What's his rationale for seeking unprecedented 3rd term and doing away with the previous rules set in place by Deng if he (Xi) couldn't even bring clarity, forcefulness to the core issue of China with respect to Taiwan.

If the main thrust of his argument for a 3rd term is the managing of the economy, the volatility of the current world order, stability etc.. there are, as am sure other capable leader(s) that can fill that role. Unless, the main argument he's making that the other candidates are all lousy and have been left wanting because if that's the case, then that's just a huge negative and an indictment to the CPC leadership system as well as training.

Perhaps the other reason is that there are a lot of corrupt officials and other vested interest groups (merchants a.k.a. Businesspeople) that simply don't want to shake the apple cart or money tree. Meaning, that the current trade exchange between U.S./EU are far more important to be lost just for Barbie Pelosi. The price isn't worth the cost. But as @zhangjim passionately expressed, if the government doesn't take action now, when? And how many more "warnings" can and will the CPC give for their words to have any weight? Otherwise, we ought to look forward for more Pelosi type visits from both American political parties and even Europeans down the road. I am also a little suspicious that there are influential merchants in the CPC that just don't want to upset their business expansions in EU and America. To some, if losing Taiwan means $$$ to their coffers that's a fine trade they're probably willing to make.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
If the current leadership shows weak response then I don't see why Xi should stay as President for another term at all period. What's his rationale for seeking unprecedented 3rd term and doing away with the previous rules set in place by Deng if he (Xi) couldn't even bring clarity, forcefulness to the core issue of China with respect to Taiwan.

If the main thrust of his argument for a 3rd term is the managing of the economy, the volatility of the current world order, stability etc.. there are, as am sure other capable leader(s) that can fill that role. Unless, the main argument he's making that the other candidates are all lousy and have been left wanting because if that's the case, then that's just a huge negative and an indictment to the CPC leadership system as well as training.

Perhaps the other reason is that there are a lot of corrupt officials and other vested interest groups (merchants a.k.a. Businesspeople) that simply don't want to shake the apple cart or money tree. Meaning, that the current trade exchange between U.S./EU are far more important to be lost just for Barbie Pelosi. The price isn't worth the cost. But as @zhangjim passionately expressed, if the government doesn't take action now, when? And how many more "warnings" can and will the CPC give for their words to have any weight? Otherwise, we ought to look forward for more Pelosi type visits from both American political parties and even Europeans down the road. I am also a little suspicious that there are influential merchants in the CPC that just don't want to upset their business expansions in EU and America. To some, if losing Taiwan means $$$ to their coffers that's a fine trade they're probably willing to make.
There are a lot of vague terms in your rant here. What exactly is "clarity" and "forcefulness"? What exactly does the government "taking action" entail? Define these terms precisely.

It's all well and good to jeer from the peanut gallery, but what specifically would you do if you were in Xi's position and what preparations have you in place to deal with the repercussions?
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
No, this is different. Back during RU-UA invasion phase, the final decision rested with Putin.

This time, the people making the key decision are in the US. They are just pretending to be opposed to her trip as a good cop/bad routine to fool the Chinese. Thankfully, Beijing isn't taking the bait and understands this as what it is: a concerted effort by the united establishment of the US to change the status quo on Taiwan.
This can play out many ways, and it's not entirely up to America what happens from now. There is the possibility that the PLA could decide enough is enough and start the reunification war unilaterally without waiting for Pelosi or whatever games they are playing. The mere threat of entering Chinese territory without permission could be sufficient casus belli.

I still don't think war will happen but a build up of forces under the guise of war games always needs to be respected.

That's why the American government who normally can't keep their mouths shut about anything are unusually quiet on this topic right now.
 
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