Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Curiously, every western analysis of a Taiwan invasion I've seen is based upon the assumption that an invasion will take place with the forces available to the modern day PLA, instead of the available forces 5, 10, or 15 years on, when an invasion is realistic. Not to mention that China could easily ramp up military expenditures if a conflict is inevitable.
they don't even do that, they 'analyze' based on their impressions of China from 30+ years ago using the strategies most favorable to them. it's like them analyzing in 1970's how T-34s would do if they were lined up in neat rows in the open.

I haven't seen a single person talk about the impact of drones, SEAD capability or bunker busting SRBMs so already that's just shit.
 

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
I agree. If there are throughput limitations, putting new SSBN and CVN on hold for now is OK in exchange for perfecting and mass producing a few key pieces of the puzzle:
I agree.
1. at least 8x 095 and 16x 041 subs - accounting for distance and different readiness rates
Very easy. I think 35 conventional subs + 35 nuclear subs in 10 years is very possible with current capabilities. You can even add 2-3 SSBNs along with these.
2. at least 5x 003s total - this is accounting for 75% readiness rate of conventional carriers vs. 65% of CVN.
5 003s is quite hard but still possible in 10 years.
3. at least 300x J-20s - again accounting for distance
In 10 years, 700 is easy if China commits the money.
4. at least 50x DF-41 TELs and 100x in silos with at least 3 warheads each.
Extremely easy. Should be achieved in 5 years.
5. at least 24x 055 total
I think can be achievable in 8 years or so.
6. at least 400x J-16 total
Should be achievable in 6-7 years
7. at least 600x J-10C total
Same with the J-16.
8. at least 200x PHL-16 MRLS
We don't know the production rate or the price. But shouldn't be hard
9. at least 300x DF-26
Will probably happen in the next 5 years anyway.
I think CVN and SSBN are prestige projects for now due to geographic limitations.
I think SSBNs are too early cold war anyways. In an era where early warning and communications were unreliable, and missiles required long prep time and were immobile, they made perfect sense. Now, you can empty all of your silos in less than 6 minutes after the enemy launches. TELs are easy to build.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I agree.

Very easy. I think 35 conventional subs + 35 nuclear subs in 10 years is very possible with current capabilities. You can even add 2-3 SSBNs along with these.

5 003s is quite hard but still possible in 10 years.

In 10 years, 700 is easy if China commits the money.

Extremely easy. Should be achieved in 5 years.

I think can be achievable in 8 years or so.

Should be achievable in 6-7 years

Same with the J-16.

We don't know the production rate or the price. But shouldn't be hard

Will probably happen in the next 5 years anyway.

I think SSBNs are too early cold war anyways. In an era where early warning and communications were unreliable, and missiles required long prep time and were immobile, they made perfect sense. Now, you can empty all of your silos in less than 6 minutes after the enemy launches. TELs are easy to build.
yep this is supposed to be low hanging fruit that's achievable with very modest increases in spending, not pie in the sky stuff.

the thing about
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due to required overhaul but silos have readiness times of 100% and TELs are supposed to have readiness times of ~100%: except for garage time to change tires and oil every 2k miles of driving or so, they are parked, fueled, and ready to drive.

that means if you have i.e. 10 subs with 10 missiles per sub, you actually only have 60. let's say each sub costs $5 billion + $50 million per missile which is actually cheap. so for 60 missiles at full ready, you have to spend $50 billion on 10 subs and $5 billion for 100 missiles. on the other hand for TELs and silos if you build 100 missiles, you get 100 missiles at the ready. So you spend $5 billion on 100 missiles, $1 billion on 100 TELs at $10 million each. for the price of a single SSBN, you can build an entire strategic rocket force.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
To retaliate against China's blockade and live military exercise, Taiwan army too launched missiles. The result is they set fire on a forest covered hill. Their military exercise was thus terminated. Taiwan media is pretty honest. They didn't blame it on the PLA. LAMOOO

these kids will fight with PLA ? suicide mission

seems like without US intervention, Taiwan war will be over within 2 or 3 days.

View attachment 94978
I read about so many mishaps regarding the Taiwanese military. There's this assumption that if you're allied with the US, you're military is a bunch Rambos like in the US. Taiwan tried to showoff when a capsized ship was floating in shipping lanes they used Apache helicopters and fired Hellfires to sink it. It didn't sink. Taiwan also tried to showoff firing domestic and US missiles once and the majority of them misfired including American ones. Or how about how a sailor on one of their navy ships accidentally fired their new missile, the one that they say they'll use to destroy the Three Gorges Dam, towards the Mainland. What do you expect from a military where their generals look like they're from a Banana Republic?

On a side note, someone posted a video of the Taiwanese doing military drills of a Mainland invasion of Taiwan. A former moderator here criticized how in Chinese military promotion videos claiming the soldiers were unrealistic where they're all the same size and build. Like the US doesn't do that...? Well in this video there was a clip of Taiwanese soldiers in a line on the move and they had the same height and body shape but the unusual thing was they all had extraordinarily short lower legs. There's a picture that I've seen on the internet multiple times of Taiwanese soldiers carrying a Sidewinder missile to load onto a fighter. They all also had these short lower legs. Is this the Taiwanese idea of masculinity? It didn't look anything of the sort. It was sort of freakish looking.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I am getting old and ignorant, what is AR?
Armed Reunification ... which quite frankly is the only logical outcome of an unresolved civil war. I don't know of an example in world history where an unresolved civil war is resolved via voluntary peaceful annexation. Germany was involuntarily divided and defacto occupied, doesn't count. Taiwan even has the island home advantage, so they will roll the dice on holding out until D-Day at minimum.
 

Faustshadowdancer

New Member
Registered Member
I am extremely bothered by some commentators’ claims. Have these people not been paying attention in the past 6 or so years of increasing tensions? So many people act like this has been unprovoked, but it’s blindingly obvious to anyone that the US has been deliberately trying to undermine the One China policy and just tripped over a red line. Hell, just last year, Biden invited Taiwan to his inauguration, which hasn’t been done since the early 70s. I’m not sure if they have poor memory, uninformed, or just dishonest.
 
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