Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Abominable said:

I think at this point the best thing to do is allow Pelosi's plane to land. There are a lot of civilian aircraft in the air and even if only Pelosi's plane is shot down, it could cause needless deaths on the ground.

Let the plane land, let Pelosi disembark and go to her hotel.

Then announce a no fly zone over Taiwan and send a telegram to the ROC regime to negotiate terms of surrender based around a one China two systems with full demilitarisation. Causus belli - an official visit from a US delegation abrogating the protocols agreed with America.

If terms aren't agreed to within 24 hours full scale war commences. Once a surrender has been achieved (whether it takes a few days or a year), the US delegation are transferred to America as a gesture of goodwill providing America accepts the new status quo.

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All the warnings have already been issued. If she lands, it will give China more legitimacy sure, but it will also trap her and give the US more reason to get involved directly.

Let her fly within 12nm would be sufficient reason for armed reunification. The Chinese public is already sold, and the western public will believe whatever the MSM says irrespective of the facts.

Letting her go is a final off-ramp gift to Biden to avoid getting involved with a gift wrapped scapegoat to pin all the blame on.

Patchwork_Chimera said:

What a kind gesture, giving them 24 hours of notice to prepare and disperse their forces.

If there is any form of military action taken, I'd imagine it to be violent, all at once, and without warning.

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Typical American, you can only think about violence...

We aren't dealing with the viet cong here. I'd rather have a bloodless reunification than watch Taiwan get annihilated with missile strikes. If that gives them a heads up so be it.

I don't think it'll make any difference if China gave them a week. As far as I can tell, there's no appetite for war in Taiwan.
There seems to be very little evidence of mobilisation on the Taiwanese side compared to the PLA right.

We'll have to wait and see.

I think SPAR19 will have to land first so that China can be sure that Pelosi was actually on that plane. Imagine triggering a war because of an empty plane.

obj 705A said:

I wonder how is the sentiment in Taiwan currently among the civilian population?
I know a lot of them are clueless which is why they voted for Tsai in the first place but sure now they realize how real is the possibility of war?
If I was in Taiwan I would immediately buy canned food that would be enough for at least 2 weeks and prepare the family to leave the house at a moment's notice in case missiles start flying.

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I am Taiwanese, and let me tell you most people just want to live in peace. Even the majority of the people that elected this moron voted for her because of her promise to tackle economic inequality, intergenerational wealth gap, and social issues such as womens' rights and gay rights. There is so few people that vote for her in order to have her start a war. In any case, it seems the RoC tried to rescind the invitation at the last minute, but Pelosi is stubborn and wanted to go anyway. If war does happen, it is inevitable that some hardliners in the military will start firing back, even if many would surrender. But any sign of RoC forces firing back will invite a retaliation, and the rest of us will just become collateral damage. But hey that is just life...

ember said:

I think SPAR19 will have to land first so that China can be sure that Pelosi was actually on that plane. Imagine triggering a war because of an empty plane.

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Im pretty sure Chinese intelligence has already confirmed she is onboard.

Besides, what kind of idiot games would it be to send an empty plane?

I've visited Taiwan several times, know people there, have friends there, discuss these things in depth. There is overall very little appetite for war in Taiwan. There is little appetite for reunification with mainland and settling the civil war also but far less appetite for war and certain death, the destruction of homes, cities, production capabilities and technology that took decades to develop and build up.

There will be Taiwanese military that refuses war but smaller in numbers. Vast majority of civilians are not keen for this. They also have an aging population more intense a demographic issue than mainland China and at 70 times smaller in numbers. The number of resistance would be half if that.

Be aware that the favour towards reunification is roughly at 30% of Taiwanese population already. Many older generations prefer reunification or at least open to that idea. Choosing between reunification or destruction and certain death, come on. This is not a Ukraine like situation where western forces can continuously send mercenaries, supply arms and ammunition, and provide supplies - food water energy goods etc. The US getting involved would be a direct kinetic war between the US and China for the first time since Korea. China would then shelf the occupation war on Taiwan island and focus on settling the main naval war in western pacific.

5unrise said:

In any case, it seems the RoC tried to rescind the invitation at the last minute,

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Seems like a weak attempt then. Tsai can right now come out and publically say:
"We don't want Pelosi to come to Taiwan. We support the One China consensus and we are strongly opposed to any attempt to change it"

That she hasn't said anything yet, it means that this was a half-hearted attempt or simply a smokescreen

What I was thinking in terms of escalation:

1. Fly close to the American plane carrying Pelosi with some fighters. Warn them over the radio.
2. Do a barrel roll to display your missiles.
3. Jam the navigation and communications of the American plane with ECM.
4. Drop flares and chaff in front of the American plane
5. Fly dangerous maneuvers in front or next to the American plane.
6. Fire warning shots with a 30mm cannon. Make sure to load tracers beforehand.
7. Send a J-6 UAV up and ram Pelosi's plane.

I think ramming the plane still offers some advantages over shooting it down directly because it offers a solution to de-escalation. You can say that it is just an accident and no one should be responsible. Or shift the blame on Pelosi herself for bringing death to the crew. Either way, this method offers some room for maneuver diplomatically speaking.

Overbom said:

Seems like a weak attempt then. Tsai can right now come out and publically say:
"We don't want Pelosi to come to Taiwan. We support the One China consensus and we are strongly opposed to any attempt to change it"

That she hasn't said anything yet, it means that this was a half-hearted attempt or simply a smokescreen

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The sock puppet cannot defy the hand up her butt.

If these leaks were intending to try and stay China’s hand, they are moronic in the extreme. Even if China didn’t want to use force before it has to now because if RoC cannot disinvite Pelosi, then technically her trip is a foreign invasion.