Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
gadgetcool5 said:
If it is war then China must telegraph to the U.S. now that an end to strategic ambiguity means war. (And this must be done before strategic ambiguity actually ends.) Because otherwise I can see the U.S. deciding to do it. Once this is done, use of force from that point on would become insane; it would invite WW3.
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This is what China has been saying for years.
Whether anyone is actually listening is another question.

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Let's suppose the US was to end strategic ambiguity and announce Taiwan would be recognised/defended.

There's all sorts of scenarios where China could assert sovereignty.

For example, China sails some ships within sight of Kaohsiung or Hsinchu or Penghu

The Chinese Coast Guard alone have many more ships available than the Taiwan or the US. Plus some of these ships are larger than any Navy destroyer or cruiser.
So no-one else is able to shove them out of the way.

The US and Taiwan would be shown to be impotent in such a scenario, and the general population would likely start panicking at the sight of Chinese ships hovering within sight of the coastline.

Are Taiwan or the US really going to start shooting at Chinese Coast Guard ships over this, and start an actual war?
 
S

Skywatcher

Captain
hashtagpls said:
what pottinger was hoping for was a zipper like chain reaction such as was seen with the TSMC chip sanctions against SMIC; pottinger and his mob hoped that as more and more chinese firms are sanctioned, more and more supply chains will leave China, therefore making it easier to make war on China since US elites wouldn't be watching their own factories and capital being destroyed.

A very Taichi, yin yang solution to such a strategy is to universalise the Chines economy, such that the US ends up isolating itself from the world economy as opposed to China.
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Pottinger is a moron and a coward who should be launched into the sun for his actions during the COVID 19 pandemic alone (he claims he knew better but on the record, stayed silent when Trump went around bashing masking and other safety methods).
 
S

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
I think people are harboring this fantasy of hard decoupling between the China and the U.S. In my humble opinion: it won’t happen. Or it won’t happen until it passes the Walt Disney Litmus Test (something I made up).

In order for the China-US relations to deteriorate to the point of no return, it must first pass the Walt Disney Litmus test — China will confiscate all Disney assets in Shanghai and Hong Kong and Disney will start making anti-China propaganda films.

Until the above happens, no chance of hard decoupling.
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This always makes me wonder, are the American government fundamentalist weirdos who actually believe everything they say, or do they say this just as their own propaganda?

I saw an poverty alleviation project video from CGTN, they were in the poorest villages in China which was inhabited by Yi minority people. Again, let me stress this again, amongst the POOREST places in China. Yet, the local kindergarten was painted with pictures of Donald Duck and Mickey Mouse (albeit crude and I'm sure unlicensed reproductions), and the children had Captain America backpacks.

For all the talk about "Chinese Propaganda" and "Great Firewall", even the poorest people in China are influenced by American pop-culture.

Just to be clear, I'm not talking about the average American here. Of course an average person will believe whatever. However, I imagine the government official with a $100,000+ Ivy League education would know a little better than thinking "all Chinese are slaves to state propaganda" or other such nonsense that they spew.
 
O

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
gadgetcool5 said:
If it is war then China must telegraph to the U.S. now that an end to strategic ambiguity means war. (And this must be done before strategic ambiguity actually ends.) Because otherwise I can see the U.S. deciding to do it. Once this is done, use of force from that point on would become insane; it would invite WW3.
Click to expand...

When US committed to ‘defending’ the Diaoyu Islands, China didn’t start a war.

Also openly committing to defending Taiwan will make it harder for the U.S. to get any basing rights in SEA countries. No one except perhaps Japan wants to get dragged into a war over Taiwan.
 
j17wang

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
This is what China has been saying for years.
Whether anyone is actually listening is another question.

---

Let's suppose the US was to end strategic ambiguity and announce Taiwan would be recognised/defended.

There's all sorts of scenarios where China could assert sovereignty.

For example, China sails some ships within sight of Kaohsiung or Hsinchu or Penghu

The Chinese Coast Guard alone have many more ships available than the Taiwan or the US. Plus some of these ships are larger than any Navy destroyer or cruiser.
So no-one else is able to shove them out of the way.

The US and Taiwan would be shown to be impotent in such a scenario, and the general population would likely start panicking at the sight of Chinese ships hovering within sight of the coastline.

Are Taiwan or the US really going to start shooting at Chinese Coast Guard ships over this, and start an actual war?
Click to expand...

That would probably work quite well actually. Send 1-2 of the super coast guard ships 2-3 miles off the coast of Taipei manned with a skeleton crew to minimize casualties in case there is actually shooting. Let ROC or US sink one of the cutters, than announce a declaration of war. China needs to simply keep a manifest of all PPE and other vital resources leaving for America from chinese port. They should be switched off in hours. The idea is to cut off supplies quickly so America can't have time to re-shore manufacturing, even on an expedited basis. China should also keep a manifest of all vital resources coming from America. The idea is to speed up a decoupling so that it is done in days and weeks, vs months and years in a manner that has greater consequences for America than China.
 
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